December 20th, 2018
We’ve already talked about First-run Releases, TV on DVD releases, and Limited Releases / Classics / Foreign-Imports. This week we look at some books, music, movies that didn’t arrive in time to talk about before, movies I just forgot to mention, or screeners that arrived late and I won’t be able to get to.
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December 18th, 2018
It’s an odd week on the home market, as there are four major first run releases coming out this week, but almost nothing else. Fun fact, I got screeners for all four of these films, although one of them arrived too late to review. Of these four, A Simple Favor is clearly the best and the DVD / Blu-ray / 4K is a contender for Pick of the Week. Its only competition is the 4K release for 2001: A Space Odyssey.
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December 11th, 2018
There isn’t a huge number of releases on this week’s list home market release report. The Equalizer 2 is the biggest, but it is far from the best. As for the best, there are some Pick of the Week contenders, including Colette, My Neighbor Totoro and A Simple Favor. My Neighbor Totoro is worth owning, but it is a triple-dip at this point, maybe more. A Simple Favor is coming out on VOD this week. This leaves Colette’s DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack as the Pick of the Week.
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December 10th, 2018
A Simple Favor hits Video on Demand this week and the screener arrived early, so I figured it was a perfect time to review this movie. (Also, I might have as many as five films to review next week. I kind of messed up requesting screeners, so getting this done now will save me the stress next week.) Is it worth checking out on VOD? Or should you wait for the Blu-ray Combo Pack?
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October 2nd, 2018
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Overall, the weekend matched our predictions almost perfectly. All three new releases came within a rounding error of our prediction, if not better. This includes Night School, which led the way with $27.26 million during its opening weekend, while Smallfoot wasn’t too far behind with $23.05 million. Overall, the box office was 14% higher than last weekend at $105 million. This is also 16% higher than the same weekend last year. 2018’s lead over 2017 remained nearly identical this week at 9.0% / $720 million with $8.77 billion compared to $8.04 billion.
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September 30th, 2018
The weekend box office lived up to expectations, for the most part. Night School is projected to earn $28 million over the weekend, which almost matches its $29 million production budget. It would take tiny legs to fail to cover its production budget, which is unlikely. Granted, its reviews are only 31% positive, but it earned an A minus from CinemaScore, so its target audience liked it a whole lot more than the critics did. Its international start wasn’t great at $5.5 million in 19 markets, but within expectations. It earned second place in the U.K. with $2.02 million in 452 theaters, as well as third place in Australia with $1.20 million on 198.
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September 29th, 2018
New releases did well during previews, but returned to the levels we were predicting on Friday. Night School earned $9.5 million during its opening day, which isn’t enough to get to $30 million over the weekend, but it could be enough to match our $27 million prediction, or at least come within a rounding error of that figure. Audiences liked the movie more than critics did, as it earned an A minus from CinemaScore. Meanwhile, the film reportedly cost $29 million to make, so Universal should be happy with this result.
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September 26th, 2018
The final weekend of September is home to three wide releases. Two of these, Night School and Smallfoot could be solid hits. And since they are aimed at vastly different audiences, they shouldn’t cannibalize each other at the box office. On the other hand, Hell Fest is a low-budget horror movie that should earn more during its opening weekend than its $5.5 million production budget. Meanwhile, last week’s number one film, The House with a Clock in its Walls, should still have a solid weekend haul, giving the box office reasonable depth. This weekend last year, no film earned more than $20 million, while this year we should have two above that mark. Last year did have better depth, but I think 2018 will end its mini-losing streak in the year-over-year comparison.
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September 24th, 2018
As expected, The House with a Clock in its Walls topped the chart over the weekend. It was able to open faster than expected with $26.61 million. The other three films combined earned a fraction of that and A Simple Favor was the only other film to earn more than $10 million over the weekend. This caused the overall box office to fall 16% from last weekend to just $90 million. Worse still, this is 23% lower than the same weekend last year, which is a terrible margin. 2018 still has a massive 9.1% / $720 million lead over 2017 at $8.63 billion to $7.91 billion, so there’s no need to panic just yet.
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September 23rd, 2018
The House with a Clock in its Walls was the only new release to top expectations this weekend, and it is doing so with ease. The film will pull in a projected $26.85 million over the weekend, which is close to Goosebumps’s $28.87 million debut and is much better than predicted. Its reviews and its B plus from CinemaScore suggest merely average legs, but this is still a great start for a film that cost $42 million to make. It is way too early to make a call on its international numbers, so I’m a little wary of calling this a financial hit just yet. It did open in first place in the Philippines with 602,000 in 195 theaters, but it only managed third place in Germany with $789,000 in 465.
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September 22nd, 2018
The House with a Clock in its Walls is the only new release that opened well on Friday, with $7.82 million during its opening day. Its reviews are in the overall positive level and it earned a B plus from CinemaScore. This is nearly identical to Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children and weaker than Goosebumps’ result. If this film has the same legs as Miss Peregrine, then it will earn $25 million during its opening weekend. That would be an amazing start for a film that cost $42 million to make and significantly better than we predicted.
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September 20th, 2018
It’s a busier week than expected, as there are four films opening wide or semi-wide. The House with a Clock in its Walls is the only one with a shot at first place. In fact, it might be the only new release in the top five. Fahrenheit 11/9 could earn as much as $10 million, but it could also fail to reach the top five with $5 million. Life Itself is aiming even lower, but there’s an outside chance all things line up correctly and it earns a spot in the top five. On the other hand, Assassination Nation is opening semi-wide and it could miss the Mendoza Line. This weekend last year, Kingsman: The Golden Circle opened with nearly $40 million and two other films earned more than $20 million. This weekend, there might not be a single film with $20 million at the box office.
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September 18th, 2018
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The Predator earned top spot on the weekend box office chart with $24.63 million. However, the best new release was arguably A Simple Favor with $16.01 million, as it is the only film that will match its production budget at the domestic box office. On the other hand, White Boy Rick struggled and will likely not pay for its $30 million price-tag any time soon, while Unbroken: Path to Redemption bombed. Overall, the weekend box office was $107 million, 12% lower than last weekend. It was also down from this weekend last year, but only by 3.5%. That’s better than expected at the beginning of the month and that’s great news for 2018. Granted, its lead over 2017 went down, but it still has a 9.6% / $740 million lead with $8.50 billion compared to $7.76 billion in 2017. It would take something incredible to happen to lose this entire lead by the end of the year.
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September 16th, 2018
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This isn’t a great weekend at the box office, as three of the four new releases are missing expectations, according to studio Sunday morning estimates, as well as the biggest holdover. The Predator will come out on top with $24.0 million over the weekend, but, while that’s not bad for a September release, there’s not a lot to be excited about either. Its reviews are just 34% positive, while it only managed a C plus from CinemaScore, both of which suggest short legs. It is way too early to tell how it will perform internationally, but it only managed fourth place in South Korea with a total opening of $1.2 million on 572 screens. That’s not good and the film needs to be a major hit outside of the domestic market if it is to break even any time soon.
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September 15th, 2018
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The Predator missed expectations by a small margin with $10.45 million on Friday. It should earn about $26 million over the full weekend, which is below average for the franchise, if you take inflation into account. That’s close enough to our $28 million prediction that I’m satisfied. However, the film cost $88 million to make, so it needed a lot more than this to be a real financial success. Its reviews are just 34% positive, while it only earned C plus from CinemaScore, so it likely won’t have good legs. As for why this film isn’t connecting with audiences, there appears to have been a lot of studio interference. That rarely helps the final product.
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September 14th, 2018
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The Predator started its box office run with $2.5 million during its Thursday previews. We can’t use any of the other films in the franchise as comparisons, because they opened way too long ago. We could use The Nun, which opened with $5.4 million last week and went on to earn nearly 10 times that during its opening weekend. This film should have slightly better legs, as it has slightly better reviews and action films tend to having slightly longer legs than horror films do. That said, our prediction of $28 million seems like a safe bet at this point.
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September 13th, 2018
There are four films opening wide or semi-wide this weekend, which is one more than expected. Of these, only one movie, The Predator, has a real shot at top spot. Meanwhile, A Simple Favor is the only one of the four that is earning good reviews. White Boy Rick is opening truly wide, which is a bit of a surprise. Unbroken: Path to Redemption is the sequel to Unbroken, which earned over $100 million. No one is talking about this movie earning $100 million. This weekend last year, It remained on top with just a hair over $60 million. However, last year’s depth was really bad, so while I expect 2018 to lose in the year-over-year comparison, I don’t think it will be a major loss.
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September 1st, 2018
Overall, August was a little better than expected. Granted, there were no monster hits, but Warner Bros. had two $100 million hits in The Meg and Crazy Rich Asians. Meanwhile, Christopher Robin will come close enough to that milestone to be a hit. This allowed 2018 to stretch its lead over 2017 by over $700 million. Will that lead grow in September? Nope. Not even close. There are three major problems that will hurt September’s box office. Firstly, there are a lot of films that may or may not open wide. Secondly, there are no films opening this month that have a better than 50/50 chance of hitting $100 million. Finally... It. It destroyed records last September, earning more during its opening weekend than any film opening this month will earn in total. Fortunately, 2018 has such an enormous lead that even with It, 2018 should remain ahead of 2107 by $500 million at the end of the month.
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July 16th, 2018
Thriller starring Anna Kendrick and Blake Lively, directed by Paul Feig, opens September 14 ... Full Movie Details.
A mommy vlogger seeks to uncover the truth behind her best friend Emily’s sudden disappearance from their small town. Stephanie is joined by Emily’s husband Sean in this thriller filled with twists and betrayals, secrets and revelations, love and loyalty, murder and revenge.
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