2018 Preview: September

September 1, 2018

The Predator

Overall, August was a little better than expected. Granted, there were no monster hits, but Warner Bros. had two $100 million hits in The Meg and Crazy Rich Asians. Meanwhile, Christopher Robin will come close enough to that milestone to be a hit. This allowed 2018 to stretch its lead over 2017 by over $700 million. Will that lead grow in September? Nope. Not even close. There are three major problems that will hurt September’s box office. Firstly, there are a lot of films that may or may not open wide. Secondly, there are no films opening this month that have a better than 50/50 chance of hitting $100 million. Finally... It. It destroyed records last September, earning more during its opening weekend than any film opening this month will earn in total. Fortunately, 2018 has such an enormous lead that even with It, 2018 should remain ahead of 2107 by $500 million at the end of the month.

Weekend of September 7th, 2018

The Nun

The month actually gets off to a good start, as long as you ignore last year. The Nun is the latest in the Conjuring Cinematic Universe, which is one of the biggest horror franchises around. Peppermint is a crime revenge movie, similar to Death Wish, which came out earlier this year. That film failed to find an audience and I doubt this one will be much better. This weekend last year, It opened with $123 million. 2018 is going to get destroyed in the year-over-year comparison.

The Nun

The Nun
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: TheNunMovie.com
Distributor: Warner Bros.
Release Date: September 7th, 2018
MPAA Rating: R for terror, violence, and disturbing/bloody images.
Source: Spin-Off
Genre: Horror
Keywords: 1950s, Monks and Nuns, Romania, Demons, Possessed, Based on an UNTRUE Story, Catholic, Paranormal Investigation
Directed By: Corin Hardy
Written By: Gary Dauberman, Gary Dauberman, James Wan
Starring: Demián Bichir, Taissa Farmiga
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $15 million to $25 million
Box Office Potential: $85 million

This is the fifth film in the Conjuring franchise. So far the previous four films have earned an average of $106 million. I don’t think this film will match that average. In fact, I’m worried it will be the worst film in the franchise with $80 million or less. That’s probably too pessimistic. Hopefully it is too pessimistic, because if this film struggles, then September will get off to such a bad start that the negative stories could dominate the month and negative stories like that can become self-fulfilling prophecies.

Peppermint

Peppermint
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: Peppermint.movie
Distributor: STX Entertainment
Release Date: September 7th, 2018
MPAA Rating: R for strong violence and language throughout.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Action
Keywords: Revenge, Death of a Son or Daughter, Death of a Spouse or Fiancée / Fiancé, Government Corruption, Corrupt Cops, Corrupt Judge
Directed By: Pierre Morel
Written By: Chad St. John
Starring: Jennifer Garner
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $20 million to $30 million
Box Office Potential: $30 million

Jennifer Garner stars as a woman whose husband and daughter are killed by a drug cartel and when the corrupt system won’t help her, she becomes a vigilante. The buzz is quiet and films like this haven’t been box office gold recently.

Weekend of September 14th, 2018

The Predator

The Predator leads the way during the second weekend of September and could have a better box office run than The Nun will have. A Simple Favor is a thriller based on a popular book that gives off a The Girl on the Train vibe, although its box office chances are much weaker. There are two other films opening this week that are too small to talk about. Unbroken: Path to Redemption is the latest from Pure Flix, but that studio hasn’t had a film open with more than $5 million in nearly two and a half years and I don’t think this streak is going to end. Finally, White Boy Rick is opening in limited release this week with a planned wide expansion the following week. I don’t think it is going to happen. This weekend last year, neither of the two new releases went anywhere at the box office, but It repeated on top with $60 million. 2018 is going to get crushed in the year-over-year comparison again.

The Predator

The Predator
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: FoxMovies.com/Movies/The-Predator
Distributor: 20th Century Fox
Release Date: September 14th, 2018
MPAA Rating: R for strong bloody violence, language throughout, and crude sexual references.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Action
Keywords: Alien Encounters, Hunting, Life in a Small Town, Cover Up, Ex-soldier, Delayed Sequel, Humans as Prey
Directed By: Shane Black
Written By: Shane Black, Fred Dekker
Starring: Boyd Holbrook, Olivia Munn, Trevante Rhodes, Alfie Allen, Keegan-Michael Key, Sterling K. Brown, Jacob Tremblay, Yvonne Strahovski, Thomas Jane
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $40 million to $60 million
Box Office Potential: $75 million

This is the fourth or sixth installment in the Predator franchise, depending if you count the two Alien vs. Predator films. This film is co-written and directed by Shane Black, who has made some amazing movies over his career. Unfortunately, only Iron Man 3 did as well at the box office as it did with critics. (He’s made so many great movies that didn’t find an audience in theaters. So many.) There are some who think The Predator will be the biggest hit of September, but I’m not among them. I do think it will be a financial success and break even relatively early in its home market run, so I think the studio will be happy with that result.

A Simple Favor

A Simple Favor
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: ASimpleFavor.movie
Distributor: Lionsgate
Release Date: September 14th, 2018
MPAA Rating: R for sexual content and language throughout, some graphic nude images, drug use and violence.
Source: Based on Fiction Book/Short Story
Genre: Thriller/Suspense
Keywords: Life in a Small Town, Missing Person, Same Actor, Multiple Roles, Money Troubles, Twins, Murder Mystery
Directed By: Paul Feig
Written By: Jessica Sharzer, Paul Feig, Darcey Bell
Starring: Anna Kendrick, Blake Lively
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $20 to $30 million
Box Office Potential: $45 million

Anna Kendrick and Blake Lively star are two women who are very different, but become friends. When the latter disappears, the former starts digging into the missing woman’s past to find out what might have happened. The trailer has a stylish and tense feel to it and that could help the buzz. Also, the book it is based on is quite popular. That said, I think Lionsgate would be very happy if it could just get close to $50 million domestically.

Weekend of September 21st, 2018

The House with a Clock in its Walls

This might be the busiest weekend of the month, as there are five films that might be opening or expanding wide. However, it could also be the slowest weekend, as only one of those five films, The House with a Clock in its Walls, is guaranteed to open truly wide. Fahrenheit 11/9 is almost guaranteed to not open truly wide, but it could become the biggest documentary hit of the year, and that’s saying a lot. Amazon Studios is saying Life Itself will be their first wide release, but their definition of wide might not match up with mine. Meanwhile, there were some reports that The Sisters Brothers might open semi-wider or wider, but it has been recently confirmed it is a limited release. Keep an eye on that film, as its buzz is good enough that it could see some mainstream success. Likewise, the previously mentioned White Boy Rick is scheduled to expand this week, but I don’t think it will be expanding truly wide. This weekend last year, Kingsman: The Golden Circle opened with nearly $40 million and It was second with nearly $30 million. There’s a chance no film this year opens with $30 million, so 2018’s losing streak will continue.

Fahrenheit 11/9

Fahrenheit 11/9
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: MichaelMoore.com
Distributor: Briarcliffe Entertainment
Release Date: September 21st, 2018
MPAA Rating:
Source: Based on Real Life Events
Genre: Documentary
Keywords: Agitprop, Political, Politicians, Archive Footage, Political Protest
Directed By: Michael Moore
Written By: Michael Moore
Starring: Michael Moore
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $10 million or less
Box Office Potential: $25 million

Michael Moore is inarguably the most successful documentarian when it comes to box office success. He has three of the top twenty documentaries of all time, inflation adjusted. And that number looks even better if you don’t include IMAX films. However, it has been nearly a decade since a film of his has hit $10 million domestically. That said, Fahrenheit 9/11 remains his biggest hit and even if this film only makes a fifth of what that film made, ignoring inflation, it will likely be the biggest documentary of the year.

The House with a Clock in its Walls

The House with a Clock in its Walls
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: HouseWithAClock.com
Distributor: Universal
Release Date: September 21st, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG for thematic elements including sorcery, some action, scary images, rude humor and language.
Source: Based on Fiction Book/Short Story
Genre: Horror
Keywords: Secret Magic, 1950s, Good vs. Evil, Orphan, Death of a Sibling, Young Child Dealing with the Death of a Parent
Directed By: Eli Roth
Written By: Eric Kripke, John Bellairs
Starring: Owen Wilder Vaccaro, Jack Black, Cate Blanchett
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $50 million to $60 million
Box Office Potential: $70 million

Owen Wilder Vaccaro stars as a 10-year old boy whose parents recently died. He is sent to live with his uncle, Jack Black, who happens to be a middling warlock. Their neighbor, Cate Blanchett, is a much more powerful witch. They live in a house that used to be owned by a powerful, and evil, warlock, who created a clock that is counting down to an unknown event. The three of them try and stop whatever it is.

I see this film as a very similar to Goosebumps, both in terms of target audience and box office chances. This film does have a weaker release date, so it likely won’t match that film at the box office, but it should come close enough to be considered a financial success. There is a slim chance it becomes the biggest hit of the month, thanks in part to Jack Black being part of the main cast of Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, which earned more than $400 million. That might have boosted Jack Black’s drawing power enough to get this film over the $100 million market. Admittedly, it’s a slim chance, but there is a chance this will happen.

Life Itself

Life Itself
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: LifeItself.movie
Distributor: Amazon Studios
Release Date: September 21st, 2018
MPAA Rating: R for language including sexual references, some violent images and brief drug use.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Drama
Keywords: Romance, New York, College, Car Accident, Dysfunctional Family, Non-Chronological
Directed By: Dan Fogelman
Written By: Dan Fogelman
Starring: Oscar Isaac, Olivia Wilde, Mandy Patinkin, Olivia Cooke
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $20 million
Box Office Potential: $25 million

A romantic drama that looks at the relationship of college sweethearts through marriage and the birth of their first child. Apparently this will be Amazon Studios widest release to date. This isn’t as impressive as it sounds, as their previous widest release only played in a few hundred theaters. There’s some talk this will open truly wide, but I think semi-wide is more likely. That should still be enough to open in the top ten, and it might even open in the top five.

Weekend of September 28th, 2018

Night School

We could see a close race at the top of the box office during the final weekend of September. Night School is the first film starring Kevin Hart since Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and that could help its box office chances. Meanwhile, Smallfoot is the first digital animated movie to come out since Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, so there should be some pent-up demand. Also opening wide this week is Hell Fest, but its a low-budget horror film and if it can open with anything significantly more than $10 million during its debut weekend, it will be seen as a success. Finally there’s Little Women, which is reportedly opening wide, but it is being released by Pure Flix and as I mentioned above, they haven’t had a film open with more than $5 million in over two years. This film might not open semi-wide. This weekend last year, none of the new releases made a major impact at the box office and while there were four films that earned more than $10 million, I think 2018 has the advantage and will end its short losing streak.

Hell Fest

Hell Fest
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: HellFestMovie.com
Distributor: Lionsgate
Release Date: September 28th, 2018
MPAA Rating:
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Horror
Keywords: Halloween, Amusement Park, Haunted House, Teenage Slasher, Unbelieving Police
Directed By: Gregory Plotkin
Written By: William Penick, Chris Sey, Seth M. Sherwood, Stephen Susco
Starring: Bex Taylor Klaus, Amy Forsyth, Reign Edwards
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $10 million
Box Office Potential: $30 million

A teenage slasher that takes place in a Halloween-themed amusement park. When a killer starts stalking a group of teenagers and killing them, the rest of the visitors just think it is part of the act. That’s not exactly an original idea, but it is good enough for a teenage slasher. That said, the genre as a whole isn’t exactly a box office powerhouse at the moment and while I don’t think it will bomb, it won’t make much of an impact at the box office.

Night School

Night School
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: NightSchoolMovie.com
Distributor: Universal
Release Date: September 28th, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for crude and sexual content throughout, language, some drug references and violence.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Comedy
Keywords: High School Dropout, High School, Learning Disabilities, Heist
Directed By: Malcolm D. Lee
Written By: Kevin Hart, Harry Ratchford, Joey Wells, Matt Kellard, Nicholas Stoller, John Hamburg
Starring: Kevin Hart, Tiffany Haddish
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $20 million to $40 million
Box Office Potential: $80 million

Kevin Hart stars as Teddy Walker, a man who needs to get his GED to get his dream job. Tiffany Haddish stars as the tough as hell teacher. In the past four years, Kevin Hart has had three $100 million hits and is coming off the biggest hit of his career. Tiffany Haddish doesn’t have as long a movie resume, but she also has a $100 million hit under her belt. I’m not saying this film will get to $100 million, but I do think it will be a solid midlevel hit and it will earn a healthy profit during its home market run.

Smallfoot

Smallfoot
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: SmallfootMovie.com
Distributor: Warner Bros.
Release Date: September 28th, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG for some action, rude humor, and thematic elements.
Source: Based on Fiction Book/Short Story
Genre: Adventure
Keywords: Bigfoot, Mountain Climbing, Humans as Monsters, Falsely Accused
Directed By: Karey Kirkpatrick
Written By: Karey Kirkpatrick, Sergio Pablos
Starring: Channing Tatum
Production Budget: Unknwon - Estimated at $60 million to $80 million
Box Office Potential: $70 million

Warner Bros. Animation group started out with a bang. Their first release, The LEGO Movie, was a monster hit at the box office and even earned some Awards Season buzz. However, since then, they haven’t be able to recapture that magic. In fact, except for the spin-off, The Lego Batman Movie, they haven’t come close. The lack of direct competition should help, but it will very likely finish near the very low end of the studio’s releases thus far.

Filed under: Monthly Preview, Smallfoot, Little Women, White Boy Rick, The Sisters Brothers, The Predator, The Nun, Night School, Fahrenheit 11/9, Hell Fest, The House with a Clock in its Walls, Life Itself, Unbroken: Path to Redemption, A Simple Favor, Peppermint, Predator, AVP, The Conjuring, Cate Blanchett, Jack Black, Shane Black, Jennifer Garner, Kevin Hart, Oscar Isaac, Thomas Jane, Anna Kendrick, Karey Kirkpatrick, Malcolm D. Lee, Blake Lively, Michael Moore, Pierre Morel, Mandy Patinkin, Eli Roth, Channing Tatum, James Wan, Olivia Wilde, Dan Fogelman, John Hamburg, Nicholas Stoller, Sergio Pablos, Gregory Plotkin, Demián Bichir, Paul Feig, Taissa Farmiga, Boyd Holbrook, Olivia Munn, Yvonne Strahovski, Keegan-Michael Key, Stephen Susco, Eric Kripke, Jacob Tremblay, Olivia Cooke, Sterling K. Brown, Alfie Allen, Gary Dauberman, William Penick, Corin Hardy, Bex Taylor Klaus, Amy Forsyth, Owen Wilder Vaccaro, Chad St. John, Fred Dekker, Tiffany Haddish, Jessica Sharzer, Joey Wells, Harry Ratchford, Trevante Rhodes, Matt Kellard, Seth M. Sherwood, Chris Sey, Reign Edwards, John Bellairs, Darcey Bell