February 28th, 2016
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It’s Oscar day and, if all goes to plan, I will be live-blogging the ceremony tonight. Here is the list of nominees marked according to predictions from our readers, and my personal wishes. Nominees in Bold are the ones predicted to win by our readers (we’ll have a full rundown of the predictions at noon, after the contest ends). If I am predicting a different film, those are in Italics. Meanwhile, the nominees I want to win, but don’t think will win, are Underlined. There are a few categories where the film I really think deserves the award was not even nominated, plus a few I don’t have a real opinion on.
If you haven’t done so already, it’s not too late to enter our Oscar competition, and win all Best Picture nominees on Blu-ray or DVD.
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February 26th, 2016
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With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. If Leonardo DiCaprio doesn't win, there will be rioting in the streets.
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February 24th, 2016
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This year, Best Supporting Actress is a two-horse race, making it one of the more competitive categories of the ones we are going to look at.
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February 15th, 2016
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There's no major release this week. I was tempted to give Spectre the Pick of the Week honor, but the screener arrived too late to get the review done over the weekend. None of the big releases are worth the Pick of the Week title. There are a number of smaller releases that are worth considering for Pick of the Week, including The Kid, which tops the list.
On a side note, this week's list is a little shorter than I would have liked, because the people who run Amazon are morons. They've changed the New Releases page, again, making it even harder to find a list of new releases for the week. Additionally, there are some films, like Black Mass, that weren't on the list of releases for this week before the changes were made. I understand why physical stores reorganize every once and a while, because if people have to walk to the store to find something, they are more likely to buy something else on a whim. However, these people physically walked to the store, so if they don't buy what they came for, it will be a wasted effort. On the other hand, people go to Amazon by clicking a button. Making it harder to find new releases for that week won't make it more likely they will buy something else. It means they are more likely to not buy anything at all.
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February 15th, 2016
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The BAFTA awards were handed out over the weekend. There were two main winners, The Revenant, which won most of its five awards in the high-prestige categories, and Mad Max: Fury Road, which earn all four of its awards in technical categories. It appears the Oscars will be very similar in that breakdown.
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January 15th, 2016
The Oscar nominations were announced at 5:30 am Pacific time. Nothing is good that early in the morning. Worse still, this was a terrible year for snubs, especially when it comes to diversity of the nominees. The voters for the Oscars are 94% white and 77% male... but that's still more diverse than the list of nominees. The Revenant led the way with 12 nominations and it is expected to win a few of those, while it is a serious contender in most of the categories it was nominated in.
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January 11th, 2016
The Golden Globes were handed out on Sunday evening. There were a few minor surprises and some infuriating results. On the other hand, no one film truly dominated, with The Revenant leading the way with just three wins. Only two other movies earned more than one win, The Martian and Steve Jobs.
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January 9th, 2016
The BAFTA nominations were announced and you can read them on their site... in alphabetical order. Alphabetical order is very useful in most circumstances, but not here. On the other hand, the nominees within each category are not presented in alphabetical order. ... Are the BAFTAs trolling us? As for the actual nominees, the big winners here are Bridge of Spies and Carol, both of which earned nine nominations. For Carol, this is just another impressive score, but this was a pleasant surprise for Bridge of Spies.
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January 6th, 2016
The Writers Guild of America nominees were announced and there are only a few surprises here. Additionally, one of these three races seems too close to call at this point.
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December 29th, 2015
The Revenant had the best theater average of the week and the second best opening theater average of the year with $474,560 in four theaters for an average of $118,640. The only film to open in 2015 with a better theater average was Steve Jobs with an average of $130,381. It struggled during its wide expansion. Hopefully that won't happen here. The Hateful Eight was next with an average of $46,107 in 100 theaters. The overall number one film, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, was next with an average of $36,092. This would have been the fourth best opening weekend average for a wide release all year. 45 Years opened with an average of $21,925 in three theaters over the weekend and an average of $30,119 over its five-day opening. Daddy's Home was the second wide release in the $10,000 club with an average of $11,844. Mr. Six just missed the $10,000 club over the weekend with an average of $9,562 in 30 theaters; however, it earned an average of $12,500 over its four-day opening.
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December 25th, 2015
While there are a massive number of wide releases / wide expansions this week, there are very few limited releases. Generally by this time of year, the competition from previously released Awards Season contenders is just too much. The only type of film that can truly thrive is one that has a lot of pre-release buzz. This year, this includes The Hateful Eight, which has the widest opening on this week's list and expands truly wide next week, as well as The Revenant, which expands wide early in January.
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December 15th, 2015
We have a new champion on top of the per theater chart this week, as The Big Short earned one of the best limited release openings of the year. Its average of $88,191 was behind only Steve Jobs for the year and Steve Jobs opened in half as many theaters as The Big Short, 8 to 4. Carol remained strong in second place with an average of $21,105 in 16 theaters. Thankfully it is expanding, but I'm worried the studio waited too long and it won't reach its potential. Yellow Day opened with an average of $13,130 in two theaters. The Danish Girl rounded out the $10,000 club with an average of $10,964 in 24 theaters. By this time next week, it could be over $1 million in total.
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December 12th, 2015
In the Heart of the Sea started out in first place on Friday, but won’t be on top for long. It earned just $3.85 million, putting it ahead of The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2, which earned $3.26 million. However, holdovers have a lot bigger gains on Saturday, while In the Heart of the Sea will likely fall and miss $10 million over the weekend. This is a disaster for a film that cost $100 million to make. This is bad news for Warner Bros., as it is not the first major flop they’ve had this year. Outside of American Sniper, which opened in 2014, they haven’t had a single monster hit (domestic box office of $200 million or more). On the other end, they’ve had three films with $100 million production budgets that flopped this year (Jupiter Ascending, Pan, and now In the Heart of the Sea). Worse still, they have one more $100 million movie coming out this year, Point Break, and it is widely expected to flop as well. For years, Warner Bros. was the biggest studio in the world, but after this year, there might need to be a major shake up to turn things around.
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December 10th, 2015
The Golden Globes nominations were announced this morning and we are already beginning to see a trend for this year's Awards Season. For the most part, the same films are coming up over and over again. Carol led the way with five awards, while there was a three-way tie for second place with The Big Short, The Revenant and Steve Jobs each picking up four.
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December 9th, 2015
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The Screen Actors Guild nominations were announced today and there are at least a few surprises to talk about. Trumbo led the way with three nominations, but there were six films with two nods apiece. Six!
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November 10th, 2015
It was a busy week on the per theater chart with seven films in the $10,000 club. Spotlight led the way with an average of $59,002 in five theaters. This is the fourth best opening weekend average of 2015, just ahead of While We're Young and just behind Ex Machina. Brooklyn was next with an average of $37,456, also in five theaters. It opened on Wednesday, so its weekend average was a little lower than it otherwise would have been. The overall number one film, Spectre, was third with an average of $17,919. In Jackson Heights was on the opposite end of the scale playing in just one theater. It did well with an opening of $15,150. Trumbo was very close behind with an average of $14,835 in five theaters. Its reviews suggest it won't expand significantly, but this is a great start. The second wide release of the week was The Peanuts Movie, which opened with an average of $11,345. The final film in the $10,000 club was Peggy Guggenheim - Art Addict, which earned an average of $11,129 in two theaters.
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November 8th, 2015
After a great night on Thursday and a very good day on Friday, Spectre has faded a bit over the weekend. After posting $28 million on Friday, the film was down about 4% on Saturday to $26.5 million, and Sony is projecting a weekend total of $73 million. Even that number may be a shade high, and it falls well behind the $80 million that looked on the cards earlier in the weekend, and even further behind Skyfall’s franchise-record $88.4 million opening. While by any measure it’s a great debut, the final number does prompt the question: what went wrong over the weekend?
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October 27th, 2015
Suffragette started its potential Oscar-run earning first place on the per theater chart with an average of $19,056 in four theaters. That suggests room to grow, but perhaps not enough to expand truly wide. It will need to last in theaters long enough for Awards Season nominations to be announced and if it can do well then, it will boost its box office chances. Heart of a Dog was next with an opening of $13,893 in one theater. Room was the only holdover in the $10,000 club earning an average of $10,856 in 23 theaters. It will earn some measure of mainstream success, but unless Brie Larson earns some major Awards Season nominations, it won't expand truly wide.
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October 26th, 2015
Most of the new releases were not expected to do well at the box office. ... Almost no one saw this coming. We had some near-record bombs this weekend and even the best of the new releases were terrible. This left The Martian in first place; in fact, the top three spots and four of the top five were held by holdovers. The best new release, The Last Witch Hunter, barely cracked the $10 million mark. The overall box office fell 14% from last weekend to $105 million. This was also 9.5% lower than the same weekend last year. Midweek numbers were better this year than last year, so the year-over-year actually improved and 2015 now has a 5.2% lead over 2014 at $8.60 billion to $8.18 billion.
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October 25th, 2015
Dismal is about the politest word that can be applied to the box office performance of new releases this weekend. None of the five films new in wide release managed to make the top three on the chart, and two of them didn’t even crack the top ten. That leaves The Martian and Goosebumps to battle it out for first place, and a fourth-week decline of just 25% for The Martian looks virtually certain to give it the win. Fox projects it will make $15.9 million for a total by the end of the weekend of $166 million or so. Its performance to date falls neatly between that of Interstellar and Gravity, which puts the sci-fi adventure on course for a final domestic box office of $230 million (see full comps here).
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October 24th, 2015
Where to start? There are so many new releases to talk about and none of them did well. Some did so poorly that talking about them seems mean. So, let’s start by saying that Friday’s box office chart was led by The Martian, while Goosebumps has a shot at repeating on top of the chart, with each film earning about $14 million to $15 million. Meanwhile, Bridge of Spies should earn third place over the weekend with between $11 million and $12 million.
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October 22nd, 2015
The box office prediction contests for the past few weeks have had a horror / "horror" theme. That is to say, two people won horror movies and the third won movies that were so bad it is scary they exist. There are four new releases this weekend and they all epitomize the latter. Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension has a review embargo, which is never a good sign, while the other three wide releases are all earning less than 20% positive reviews. Does that mean there's nothing worth seeing this week? Nope. Fortunately, Steve Jobs is expanding wide and should earn first place at the box office. It is the only film on this week's list with a shot at $20 million. This weekend last year, Ouija nearly reached $20 million and five other films earned $10 million. I don't think we will match that this year. It could be close and any gain or loss in the year-over-year comparison should be in single digits, so there's no reason to be overly concerned.
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October 21st, 2015
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Room was in a close race for top spot on the per theater with last week's winner, but it came out on top with an average of $29,575 in four theaters. Steve Jobs was right behind with an average of $25,212 in 60. This film is going to expand wide this weekend and could lead the weekend. The Assassin earned an average of $11,973 in four theaters, which is strong for a foreign-language film. Meanwhile, Truth was right behind with an average of $11,039 in six.
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October 18th, 2015
A slightly-softer-than-expected (but still good) opening for Goosebumps will be enough to take the film to the top of the box office chart this weekend, according to studio projections released on Sunday morning. Sony expects the family horror adventure to come in with $23.5 million on opening weekend, which is a solid enough start, and sets the film up for a good run, helped by strong reviews and Halloween coming up in a couple of weeks. The Martian will land in second with a projected $21.5 million as of this morning, a slightly steeper-than-expected 42% decline from last weekend, and a total to date around $144 million. In general, we’re looking at quite a few steep drops from last weekend thanks to an unfavorable comparison with the Columbus Day long weekend and a batch of new releases.
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October 16th, 2015
Next weekend is a bit of a mess when it comes to the wide releases. Steve Jobs is expected to win, but it is currently in limited release and we don't like using these films as the target film. Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension was expected to come in second place, but Paramount Pictures' plan for an early VOD release has caused some theater owners to not book the film. This leaves Jem and the Holograms and The Last Witch Hunter as the possible choices for the target film in this week's box office prediction contest. As such, The Last Witch Hunter is the only choice for the target film for this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Last Witch Hunter.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
There is a difference this time. Two people will earn Frankenprizes consisting of two horror movies. The other winner will earn a Frankprize consisting of two "horror" movies, that is to say movies so bad that it will fill you with horror. We are going to do this again next week, and maybe even during Christmas, with two presents and a lump of coal. We might do this regularly for as long as I have bad movies to give away.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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October 13th, 2015
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Steve Jobs was expected to be a hit in limited release, but not this big of a hit. The film scored more than $500,000 in just four theaters for an average of $130,381, which is the best per theater average for a film released in 2015. In fact, it is nearly double the previous best, Sicario. The second best average of the week was $16,543, which was earned by Goodbye Mr. Loser in 22 theaters.
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October 11th, 2015
As expected, The Martian will easily win a second straight weekend at the box office, with Fox predicting the film will fall just 32% from its opening to $37 million, for a running total of $108.7 million. That keeps it tracking just a little behind Gravity, which fell 23% in its second weekend, and ahead of Interstellar (down 40%, second time around) and Prometheus (59% down). Comparing all four movies, The Martian looks set to move easily past $200 million, and perhaps settle around $225 million, unless it tops that number thanks to a re-release around Oscar time.
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October 9th, 2015
This is not a particularly deep week for limited releases. Steve Jobs is the only film that has a significant chance of earning some measure of mainstream success. In fact, its reviews and buzz suggest it could be a player during Awards Season. On the other hand, The Forbidden Room, Victoria, and Yakuza Apocalypse are more interesting in my mind.
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October 1st, 2015
September ended on a record note with the debut of Hotel Transylvania 2. Additionally, there was great depth and 2015's lead over 2014 grew to nearly $500 million. How do things look going forward? The month starts out with The Martian, which should have no trouble becoming the biggest hit of the month and might even top $200 million. On the other hand, no other film is expected to get to $100 million. There's only one or two that will even come close. Fortunately, last October was very similar with one $100 million hit, Gone Girl, while two other films came close, Annabelle and Fury. It looks like it will be up to the depth films from both years to determine which year comes out on top.
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