September 27th, 2017
Transformers: The Last Knight is the biggest release of the week and it has scared away a lot of the competition, but it’s garbage and should be avoided. There are no big releases that are pick of the week contenders, but some smaller ones fit the bill, including David Lynch: The Art Life: The Criterion Collection, HYOUKA: Part Two, and Shameless: The Complete Seventh Season. All are amazing and worth checking out, but none have many extras, so it is up to the role of the dice to determine the Pick of the Week. ... And it’s HYOUKA.
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September 26th, 2017
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I try to average one review a week and this week I had two potential screeners I could request. L.O.R.D: Legend of Ravaging Dynasties, a computer animated Chinese film that most of our readers have probably never heard of, and Transformers: The Last Knight, the latest installment in one of the biggest franchises around. I choose L.O.R.D: Legend of Ravaging Dynasties, because even after reading a plot summary, and being utterly confused, I still felt it was the better choice for review. Confusing can still be entertaining, while The Last Knight would just make me angry. Did I make the right choice?
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August 24th, 2017
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Here at The Numbers, we strive to improve your reading experience by adding more features we believe you will find interesting. Today, the new feature is top single-market hits. As the chart shows, the biggest single-market hit is Star Wars: The Force Awakens, which earned $936.66 million in North American. The top of the chart is still dominated by releases in the United States, and second place used to belong to Avatar. But this week, Wolf Warriors 2’s Chinese box office topped that figure and it currently has $783.02 million. This is game changing … although we’ll have to see how it plays out.
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July 27th, 2017
Dunkirk debuted in first place on the international chart with $55.4 million in 46 markets for a worldwide debut of $105.9 million. Its biggest opening was in the U.K., no surprise there, where it earned $13.00 million in 638 theaters. Strangely, South Korea wasn’t far behind with $8.75 million on 1,245 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $10.40 million. On the other hand, the film struggled somewhat in France with $4.9 million. This isn’t a bad opening, but I was expecting more. Overall, it is doing about as well as Christopher Nolan’s previous film, Interstellar. If Dunkirk can merely match that movie's worldwide figure, then it will break even before it reaches the home market. Even if it doesn’t quite manage that total, anything above $500 million worldwide will produce a healthy profit for the studio.
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July 13th, 2017
Spider-Man: Homecoming earned first place in one of the closest races I’ve seen. It pulled in $140.03 million on 24,287 screens in 71 markets for a worldwide opening of $257.06 million. Its biggest market was South Korea, where it earned $19.37 million on 1,965 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $25.94 million. It also cracked $10 million in both the U.K. ($12.11 million in 616 theaters) and Mexico ($11.72 million on 3,506 screens), while it came close to that mark in Brazil with $9.09 million on 1,302 screens. The film did amazing business in Asia, including earning $6.84 million on 1,092 screens in Indonesia and $6.46 million on 1,900 screens in India. The film has yet to open in a number of major markets, including France, Germany, China, and Japan and should top $800 million worldwide with ease before it is done, which is enough to break even before it reaches the home market. The real challenge is surpassing Wonder Woman and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 for top spot on the worldwide chart for the summer. It is too soon to tell if it will get there for sure, but this is a great start.
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July 11th, 2017
The weekend box office chart held few surprises. Every film in the top five was close to our predictions, while the top two films were a little stronger. This includes Spider-Man: Homecoming, which pulled in $117.03 million during its opening weekend, making it the second fastest debut of the summer. (Only Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 is ahead of it in that regard.) Despicable Me 3 held on better than most films this summer and will become a monster hit thanks to its international numbers. Overall, the box office rose by 22% from last weekend hitting $206 million. Unfortunately, this is still 5.1% lower than the same weekend last year. Before the summer began, 2017 had a $200 million lead over 2006. That lead is now down to just $13 million at $5.95 billion to $5.94 billion. This lead could be completely gone by the weekend.
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July 6th, 2017
Spider-Man: Homecoming is the only film opened wide this weekend and that should help it dominate the box office. In fact, it should have the biggest opening since Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2. The competition will put a dent in Despicable Me 3’s box office during the weekend, but even so, it will likely break even sometime over the weekend. This weekend last year had The Secret Life of Pets at the top with just over $100 million, while there were four other films earning $10 million or more. Spider-Man: Homecoming should top The Secret Life of Pets, but the depth this year won’t be as good. If 2017 does lose the year-over-year competition, then its lead over 2016 could evaporate completely.
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July 6th, 2017
Despicable Me 3 dominated the international box office almost as much as it dominated the domestic box office earning $98.8 million on 8,525 screens in 52 markets for totals of $121.1 million international and $171.2 worldwide. Its biggest opening came from the U.K., where it earned $14.50 million in 608 theaters, while Mexico wasn’t far behind with $12.34 million. However, arguably its most impressive opening came in Brazil where it earned $7.5 million, which is the best opening for an animated film in that market. The film has already made enough to pay for its $75 million production budget, so it is a monster hit. However, its decline from Minions means Universal is more likely to make a second and third Minions movie rather than a fourth Despicable Me. As someone who prefers the Despicable Me movies, this is disappointing. On the other hand, I recognize I’m not in the target demographic for these films, so I really shouldn’t have a say in these things.
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July 5th, 2017
The weekend box office chart was as predicted, at least in terms of the order. Most of the new releases / top five had weaker openings / sharper declines. Despicable Me 3 still led the way, but with a more subdued $72.43 million. Baby Driver is hoping to earn that much in total after a $20.55 million / $29.58 million opening. This is almost as much as it cost to make. The House, on the other hand, was DOA with just $8.72 million. On the positive side, Monday and Tuesday were much stronger than usual, so rather than looking at the weekend box office and saying it is weaker than anticipated, we could instead say the weekend box office was stretched out over five days. Overall, the box office grew 20% from last week to $169 million. This is down 11% from the same weekend last year, but again, one could argue this is due to a misalignment in the Independence Day holiday. Year-to-date, 2017 is still ahead of 2016, but the lead shrank to under $30 million at $5.64 billion to $5.61 billion.
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July 4th, 2017
I’ve seen a lot of people attacking Rotten Tomatoes recently saying it is bad for the movie business. Some even point to Transformers: The Last Knight as proof that the site can ruin a film’s box office chances. Besides that charge, the other two main complaints I’m hearing over and over again are A.) Rotten Tomatoes is a very shallow site, especially the Tomatometer. And B.) It is killing in-depth critical examination of movies. I’ll tackle those claims below.
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July 3rd, 2017
The combination of Canada Day and Independence Day has resulted in some studios not releasing the weekend final numbers today. Some are releasing final numbers, some have updated Sunday’s estimates, while others are just waiting until Wednesday for final results. Despicable Me 3 is in the middle category, as Universal revised its estimate downwards to $72.41 million. This is still a great opening, but it is also a troubling trajectory, as it has fallen a lot from Friday’s Estimates, when it looked like it was going to hit $83 million. Granted, this is still the sixth-biggest opening of the year, so Universal has reason to celebrate, but its internal multiplier suggests short legs for a family film. I think this is a case of franchise fatigue, as its reviews were good, even if they were not as good as the previous Despicable Me films.
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July 1st, 2017
As expected, Despicable Me 3 earned first place at the box office on Friday with $29.2 million. This is the best single day for an animated film this year. To emphasize, this isn’t just the best opening day, but the best single day, and it should top that on Saturday. The previous record was $23.00 million, earned by The Lego Batman Movie. This film’s reviews are not as good as The Lego Batman Movie’s reviews are (they both earned A minuses from CinemaScore) so it won’t have the same legs. That said, an $83 million opening is still a great start and roughly on par with Despicable Me 2.
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June 29th, 2017
Despicable Me 3 should dominate the box office this weekend, which is good news, because the last few weeks have been underwhelming. In fact, we haven’t had a monster hit since Wonder Woman started the month off with a bang. The House is an R-rated comedy, but since the last such film to come out bombed, I’m a little worried about its chances. Baby Driver opened on Wednesday and its early numbers are promising. It won’t be a $100 million hit, but it should earn a solid profit for Sony. This weekend last year, there were no monster hits at the box office, but there was solid depth. This weekend, we should be much stronger on top, while the depth won’t be that much weaker, leading to 2017 ending its mini-losing streak.
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June 29th, 2017
Transformers: The Last Knight dominated the international box office chart earning $196.2 million in 40 markets, picking up first place in each of those markets. There’s good news and bad news. Good news, this is slightly ahead of Age of Extinction’s combined opening in these markets. Bad news, most of it came from China, where studios only get 25% of the box office, instead of an average 40% in other international markets. The Chinese debut was impressive, $127.24 million on 7,800 screens, including previews. It also did well in South Korea with $9.53 million on 1,727 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $12.87 million. It was nearly as potent in Russia with $8.45 million on 1,456 screens. On the other hand, its openings in the U.K. ($5.90 million in 577 theaters) and in Australia ($3.39 million on 539 screens) were actually worse than its opening here, given the relative size of the markets involved. The film has yet to open in several major markets, including France, where it opens this weekend, so it should remain active on the international chart for a while.
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June 28th, 2017
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The winners of our Go Go Power Prizes contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Transformers: The Last Knight’s opening weekend were...
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June 28th, 2017
Two limited releases that came out this past weekend topped the previous theater average record for 2017. The Big Sick earned an average of $84,315 in five theaters, which bodes well for its planned wide expansion in a couple of weeks. The Beguiled was next with an average of $57,323 in four theaters. Both of these are well ahead of the $41,508 average Beauty and the Beast earned during its opening weekend. The only other film in the $10,000 club was the overall number one film, Transformers: The Last Knight, which earned an average of $10,981.
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June 27th, 2017
Transformers: The Last Knight had the weekend to itself, but it couldn’t take advantage earning $44.68 million / $68.48 million over the full five days. It earned less over five days than last year’s winner, Finding Dory, earned over three days. Wonder Woman remained in second place becoming just the third film released in 2017 to hit $300 million, but there was not much else to celebrate at the box office. This explains why the overall box office fell 27% from last weekend down to $139 million. More importantly, this is 26% lower than the same weekend last year. 2017 is still ahead of 2016, but its lead was cut in half to just 1.3% or $70 million. This is a little distressing.
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June 25th, 2017
A tepid $45.3 million Friday-to-Sunday domestic weekend for Transformers: The Last Knight is pretty much unmitigated bad news for Paramount Pictures. The studio is in desperate need of a hit, and the Transformers franchise is by far their biggest property. Even including the film’s grosses from Wednesday and Thursday, its $69 million debut is barely in the top ten for the year so far, and poor reviews and a B+ CinemaScore mean that it won’t have significant legs, even with a bit of help from the upcoming July 4 weekend. So all eyes are going to be on its overseas performance.
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June 24th, 2017
Transformers: The Last Knight suffered a 48% plummet on Thursday to earn just $8.14 million; however, it bounced back on Friday with $13.69 million. If we again compare this to Dark of the Moon, which is the last film in the franchise to open on a Wednesday, we get mixed messages. The Last Knight fell faster on Thursday (48% to 43%) but bounced back more on Friday (68% to 53%). If we assume The Last Knight will continue to outperform Dark of the Moon over the rest of the weekend, then it will earn about $42 million over the three-day weekend and $66 million over five. This is the worst opening in the franchise by a wide margin, but there is good news for Paramount, as the film earned $41.46 million during its first day in China, and $47.55 million if you include previews. The international numbers will save this film and justify more sequels.
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June 22nd, 2017
Transformers: The Last Knight got off to a weak start on Wednesday earning only $15.65 million. That’s not a great start. Fortunately, Cars 3 and Wonder Woman should have strong holds this weekend and that will help the overall box office numbers. They probably won’t help enough to top this weekend last year in the year-over-year comparison, but it should be close.
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June 22nd, 2017
The winners of our Vroom Vroom contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Cars 3’s opening weekend were...
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June 21st, 2017
Transformers: The Last Knight got off to a weak start with $5.5 million during Tuesday night previews. This is the worst in the franchise, not counting the first film, which opened before previews like this were commonplace. As for more recent comparisons, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales earned an identical amount, but that opened on a Friday, so it is not a great comparison. Perhaps Dark of the Moon is a better comparison, as it was also a Wednesday release. It earned $13.5 million in 2011, $5.5 million on Tuesday and another $8 million after midnight. (Studios no longer split the preview box office up like that.) If The Last Knight has the same legs, then it would open with $40 million / $66 million over the three-day / five-day weekend. Unfortunately, its reviews are simply awful at just 16% positive. Furthermore, early reports suggest the audience reaction won’t be much better. It’s too soon to tell if this film is going to underperform already low expectations, but this is not a good sign.
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June 21st, 2017
We have early predictions this week, as Transformers: The Last Knight is out in theaters on Wednesday. (We will get to the holdovers at the regular time.) The Last Knight has to be a monster hit, because the studio, Paramount, is in a slump the likes of which you rarely see. The last time they had a $200 million hit domestically was the last Transformer movie to hit theaters. The last time they had more than a 10% share of the box office was the last time they had the distribution rights to some of the MCU movies. Speaking of combined universes, The Last Knight is supposed to be the creation of a new Hasbro Combined Universe with this franchise and G.I. Joe being the heart of the new universe. This could fail for the same reasons The Mummy failed to jump start the Dark Universe franchise. Namely, the reviews are terrible and audiences are tired of combined universes being forced instead of growing organically.
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June 20th, 2017
As expected, Cars 3 earned first place over the weekend, but it did so with just $53.69 million, which is lower than anticipated. On the other hand, Wonder Woman remains one of the most impressive wide releases of 2017 when it comes to legs. Even if it didn’t earn another dollar, it would still have above average legs. All Eyez on Me went off to a fast start, but has a troubling internal multiplier, which doesn’t bode well for its future. Overall, the box office rose 31% from last weekend to $189 million. Unfortunately, it fell 19% from the same weekend last year and that’s more important. Fortunately, 2017 still has a sizable lead over 2016 at $5.16 billion to $5.00 billion.
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June 16th, 2017
There’s only one wide release coming out next week, Transformers: The Last Knight. However, it is coming out on the Wednesday, so that complicates our weekend Box Office Prediction Contest, because we will have at least one full day of numbers before the contest ends. Since it is the only wide wide release next week, it is the only choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening three-day weekend box office number for Transformers: The Last Knight.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Power Rangers on Blu-ray Combo Pack. The movie is already out on Video on Demand, but doesn’t come out on DVD, Blu-ray, 4K Ultra HD till the 27th.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Power Rangers on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win a random prize from our prize pack.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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June 1st, 2017
May was a really soft month with only one unqualified hit, Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2, which is climbing towards $375 million domestically. The second biggest hit of the month will be Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales and I would be surprised if it tops $150 million by any serious margin. June looks a lot more profitable. There are five weeks and every week there is at least one film with a great shot at $100 million or more. In fact, there are four films with at least a decent shot at $200 million and we could double the number of $300 million hits released so far this year. Wonder Woman is widely expected to start the month with an explosive debut and pulling in more than $100 million during its opening weekend is more and more likely. That said, Despicable Me 3 will probably end up being the biggest hit overall with over $300 million. Meanwhile, Cars 3 and Transformers: The Last Knight are both aiming for $200 million. Last June was not particularly strong, outside of one hit. Finding Dory earned nearly $500 million domestically, while the second best film, Central Intelligence, barely earned a quarter of that. I don’t think any film will come close to Finding Dory, but there’s a lot more depth this time around and I have high hopes 2017 will extend its lead.
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