November 14th, 2013
Thor: The Dark World debuted last weekend, but thanks to a number of new markets this weekend, it was even more dominant on the international chart. It pulled in $94 million in 66 markets, which lifts its running tally to $240.9 million internationally and $326.6 million worldwide. Its biggest market was China where it made $20.98 million. In comparison, Thor made about $15 million there, in total. This is incredible growth. It grew in Russia rising to $11.44 million on 1,500 screens for a total of $24.04 million after two weeks of release. The original Thor finished with $268.30 million internationally, which is a figure Thor 2 will smash through by the weekend. It might make more internationally than the first film made worldwide and it could help Disney break the all-time single year global box office record, currently at $3.791 billion, which it earned in 2010.
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November 11th, 2013
There are a number of good releases this week. The two biggest releases are Man of Steel and Turbo. While the former has a larger target audience, the latter is the better film. It is still not Pick of the Week material. The best films are some of the smaller releases, like The Attack, Barbara, Blackfish, City Lights, and Prince Avalanche. All of those are worth picking up, but I think Nosferatu on Blu-ray is the Pick of the Week.
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November 7th, 2013
Thor: The Dark World made its international debut a week ahead of its domestic debut and it crushed the competition with $109.4 million in 36 markets. Its biggest market was the U.K., where it earned first place with $13.80 million on 522 screens. By comparison, the first Thor film managed $9.11 million on 500. If the film has a similar increase in its opening weekend here, it could open with $100 million. That's probably too optimistic; it did show growth in most major markets, just not as much as it did in the U.K. France was the second best new market with an opening of $9.94 million on 609 screens, compared to $8.69 million for its predecessor. Germany and Mexico were neck-and-neck with $8.31 million on 620 screens and $8.26 million on 2,482 respectively. Russia was strong with $7.59 million on 769 screens. Australia made $6.80 million on 609 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $6.98 million. Brazil was close behind with $6.69 million on 1,090 screens. In South Korea it made $6.11 million on 843 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $7.63 million. The only major market to see a decrease was Spain, where the film made $3.34 million on 717 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $3.82 million. By comparison, Thor made $5.58 million on 562 screens.
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October 30th, 2013
Gravity earned first place for the fourth week with $37.7 million on 7,340 screens in 53 markets for a total of $164.4 million internationally and $364.0 million worldwide. This weekend it debuted in first place in France with a very impressive $10.76 million on 398 screens. It also remained in first place in South Korea with $5.29 million on 531 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $15.55 million. It also repeated in top spot in Mexico with $3.79 million on 1,563 screens over the weekend for a total of $12.04 million after two. The film will likely pull in close to $100 million in just these holdovers, plus it has yet to open in the U.K., Japan and China, so it could make another $100 million in those three markets as well.
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October 24th, 2013
For the third weekend in a row, Gravity led the way on the international chart and reached a major milestone in the process. This past weekend, it pulled in $33.5 million on 7,900 screens in 51 markets for an international total of $114.2 million and a worldwide total $283.8 million. It opened in first place in two major markets led by South Korea where it earned $6.30 million on 636 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $7.29 million. Meanwhile in Mexico, it made $5.75 million on 1,783 screens. Its biggest market overall is Russia where it has earned $17.60 million in total, including $2.19 million on 700 screens this past weekend.
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October 16th, 2013
Gravity remained in first place with a nearly identical result as last weekend. It was up a barely noticeable amount to $28.5 million on 5,785 screens in 38 markets for a two-week total of $68.3 million internationally. This hold is even more impressive, as its only major market debut came in Brazil, where it opened in second place with $1.67 million on 219 screens. On the other hand, it was down just 9% in Australia with $3.03 million on 471 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $8.29 million. It fell a little more in Germany down 17% to $3.04 million on 614 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $8.12 million. In both of those markets, it remained in first place. It fell faster in Russia down 48% landing in second place with $3.88 million on 1,155 million screens over the weekend for a total of $14.12 million after two weeks of release.
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October 11th, 2013
Gravity opened in first place on the international chart with $28.4 million on 4,830 screens in 27 markets. This includes a number of first place openings, led by Russia, where it made $7.57 million on 1,219 screens. It also earned first place in Germany with $3.65 million on 569 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $3.87 million. Australia was right behind with $3.35 million on 469. Italy contributed $2.75 million on 399, while in Spain it earned $2.26 million on 325.
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September 25th, 2013
There was an international film leading the way on the international chart this week. Gwansang jumped into first place internationally with $15.27 million on 1,239 screens in South Korea, lifting its total in that market to $46.58 million after just two weeks of release. It isn't the best South Korean film of the year, at least not yet, as Snowpiercer has made $62.1 million in that market. Meanwhile, Iron Man 3 earned about $65 million there.
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August 16th, 2013
Summer blockbuster season has officially ended, but there are four films hoping to grab a share of the limited box office dollars left. Kick-Ass 2 is the clear favorite among analysts, but it is being beat up by critics. Lee Daniels' The Butler is the only other film with a shot at first place. It is earning good reviews, but not great reviews, and I think it will be remembered as busted Oscar bait. Neither Jobs nor Paranoia have a real shot at the top five, nor are they earning critical praise. There were also four films that opened wide this weekend last year. All four of them earned $10 million or more, led by The Expendables II with $28.59, while there were three holdovers with $10 million or more. There's a slim chance Kick-Ass 2 will match The Expendables II, but I wouldn't bet on it. Plus the depth this year is weaker that last year's depth was. That's bad news for the year-over-year comparison.
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July 29th, 2013
The Wolverine did not live up to expectations, but it still dominated the weekend box office chart, earning more than double the second place film, The Conjuring. Overall, the box office fell nearly 12% when compared to last weekend hitting $172 million. This is still 28% higher than the same weekend last year, which is a great result. In total, 2013 has pulled in $6.40 billion, which is just under $20 million or 0.3% below last year's pace. This is fantastic; however, had The Wolverine performed as well as some were expecting, 2013 would have pulled into the lead over the weekend.
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July 25th, 2013
It's the final weekend of July and there is only one wide release to deal with, The Wolverine. It should be the easy winner of the weekend, it might pull in enough to become the biggest opening weekend of the month. This isn't likely, but there is a slim chance. There is one other film that might make an appearance in the top ten, The To Do List. Again, it doesn't have a strong chance, but it could happen. The holdovers should be far behind The Wolverine, as only The Conjuring has a shot at $20 million. This weekend last year, both new releases bombed, which is good news for 2013 in the year-over-year comparison. Granted, The Dark Knight Rises took in $62.10 million, which is something The Wolverine should have no trouble topping, while the holdovers should provide more depth.
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July 22nd, 2013
The weekend box office was mixed with two of the four wide releases matching predictions, Turbo and R.I.P.D.. There was one movie failing to reach expectations, Red 2. And finally there was one more beating nearly all predictions, The Conjuring. Fortunately, The Conjuring did so well that it made up for the weak films and helped the overall box grow to $195 million. Granted, that was within a rounding error of last weekend, but any growth is good news. There is also some bad news, as this was 16% lower than the same weekend last year, but since that was the weekend The Dark Knight Rises opened, this is actually better than expected. Year-to-date, 2013 has pulled in $6.12 billion. This is still lower than last year's pace ($6.16 billion), but it is close enough that it would only take one surprise weekend result to catch up. Earlier in the year, I thought 2013 was a lost cause. Now I'm much more optimistic.
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July 21st, 2013
This is a Summer packed with big-budget proto-franchise films, which makes it a risky season for the studios. Predictably enough, we've had some success stories among them, like Man of Steel and World War Z, and some disasters (with The Lone Ranger and Pacific Rim standing out). Overall, the batting average for these films is running around 50%, which makes it a particularly dicey proposition to have two of them opening in the same weekend.
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July 18th, 2013
There are four new releases coming out this week, but there is a wide range of predictions for some of these films. Turbo opened on Wednesday to mostly good reviews and some think it will earn first place over the weekend. Red 2's early reviews are weaker than anticipated, but it still has an impressive cast and could come out on top. The Conjuring is earning some of the best reviews of any wide release opening this summer. It is a horror film and those rarely open in first place in the summer, but the buzz is growing and it could be a surprise hit. Then there's R.I.P.D., which has bad buzz and no reviews. It will likely not make the top five. This weekend last year was the weekend The Dark Knight Rises opened and there's no chance 2013 will come out on top on the year-over-year comparison. In fact, the total box office this year might be lower than The Dark Knight Rises opening alone.
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July 12th, 2013
Next week is a busy week with four films coming out: Turbo, The Conjuring, Red 2, and R.I.P.D. All four films should make $20 million over the weekend, more or less, (less in the case of R.I.P.D.). This makes it really hard to choose the target film. R.I.P.D. is the least likely to be a hit, so it is eliminated. Turbo is the most likely, but it opens on Wednesday, so it is eliminated. I really want The Conjuring to be a hit, because there are several actors in the movie that I like. (Lili Taylor doesn't get enough work in my opinion.) However, I think Red 2 will have the biggest opening of the weekend. As such, it is the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Red 2.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Femme Fatales: The Complete Second Season on DVD.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Femme Fatales: The Complete Second Season on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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July 1st, 2013
For the most part, June was a really strong month at the box office with nearly every film either matching expectations, or at least coming close enough to call it a victory. Looking forward, there are a dozen films opening wide in July, more or less. One of them, The Smurfs 2, is opening on a Wednesday, so I'm going to hold off talking about that movie till the August preview. Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain is opening in less than 1000 theaters, but it has a shot at reaching the top ten during its opening weekend. If we include both of them, there are twelve films, but I think it is better to stick with the ten truly wide, truly July openings. Of these, Despicable Me 2 is clearly going to be the biggest hit at the box office. It could become the second biggest hit of the year so far. It is not the only film that could be a $100 million hit. In fact, there are six films opening in July that I think have a better than 50% chance of reaching that level. There is currently only one film that I think won't at least become a midlevel hit. By comparison in 2012, there were three $100 million movies, led by The Dark Knight Rises, but the rest of the new releases struggled. There's no chance any movie opening this month will top $400 million, in fact, it is quite possible no film will get to $300 million. That said, 2013 has a lot better depth, so it might come out on top in the end.
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