April 2nd, 2019
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Dumbo wasn’t able to match expectations, but it still topped the chart over the weekend with $45.99 million. This isn’t enough for this weekend to match last weekend, as it fell 7.3% to $137 million. This is better than the same weekend last year by a tiny 0.6%, but anything that keeps 2019’s winning streak alive is good news in my book. Year-to-date, 2019 is still behind 2018 by practically the same margin as it was last weekend. In fact, the margin in raw dollars rose to $470 million, while the percent gap dipped below 17% at $2.34 billion to $2.81 billion. Hopefully things will improve in April.
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March 31st, 2019
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Dumbo will open in first place with over the weekend with an estimated $45.0 million. This is lower than expected and not a strong opening for a film that reportedly cost $170 million to make. It did marginally better internationally, earning $71.0 million, but it is also playing in all major markets, so it has almost nowhere to expand at this point. Going forward, the film should have decent legs, in part because it is a family film. Also, while its reviews are not going to be a major asset, it did earn an A minus from CinemaScore, so its word-of-mouth is going to be better than its critical reception. However, unless it has really long legs, it is going to be a real challenge to pay for that production budget any time soon. Part of the reason I think this film is struggling is “Franchise Fatigue”. Granted, I’m not sure I would call Disney’s Live Action Remakes a real franchise, not unless they start doing some crossovers to unite the universe. (Don’t do that. Please don’t do that.) However, I do think it is susceptible to the same fatigue and this is a real problem for Disney, because they have two more major releases for this year, plus about a dozen further releases in various stages of development.
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March 30th, 2019
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Dumbo opened with $15.32 million on Friday. This is weaker than expected, but hardly a bad start. Its reviews are merely mixed, while it got an A minus from CinemaScore, so its legs should be decent. I don’t think it will reach $50 million over the weekend, so it will miss even low end expectations. That said, a $46 million opening is more than enough to get it to $100 million domestically and if it can find an audience internationally, it will break even sometime during its home market run.
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March 29th, 2019
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Dumbo earned $2.6 million during its previews, which is on the low end of expectations. It is just a fraction of the $16.3 million Beauty and the Beast managed in 2017. Additionally, this film’s reviews are the weaker and this could also affect its legs. On the other hand, Beauty and the Beast had such massive buzz is was destined to be more front-loaded that Dumbo will be. I still think Dumbo will miss our $58 million prediction, but I don’t think it will be as bad as this number first makes it appear.
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March 29th, 2019
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Dumbo essentially has the weekend to itself and should earn first place with ease. Both The Beach Bum and Unplanned are opening in just over 1,000 theaters, but neither is expected to be a major player at the box office. Finally, Hotel Mumbai is expanding into nearly 1,000 theaters and could reach the top ten. At least one of these smaller films will reach the top ten; in fact, all three of them could reach the top ten. However, this is due to really weak competition, not any box office strength these films possess. This weekend last year, Ready Player One led the way with $41 million, while Acrimony earned second place with $17 million. There’s a chance Dumbo will earn more than those two films earned. There’s also a chance Us and Captain Marvel will match those two films at the box office. It should be a good weekend for 2019 in the year-over-year comparison.
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