Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

2017 Awards Season: Oscars: And the Winner is... The Shape of Water for Best Picture

March 4th, 2018

It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. We will announce the winners and have our reactions as they happen, while keeping track of how our readers did in predicting the outcomes. More...

2017 Awards Season: Oscars Nominations: Final Look

March 4th, 2018

It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. Before that, let’s take a last look at the nominations with a few annotations. Nominees in Italics are those that have received the most votes from our readers so far in our Oscar contest (which is open to new entries until noon, Pacific, today—enter now!). Bold films are those films I think will win. Meanwhile, those that are Underlined are those I want to win. Not all categories have underlined nominees, because not all categories have someone I’m cheering for, or because there are two nominees I couldn’t pick between. For example, I will be happy no matter who wins Best Supporting Actress. One last note: The contest is still going and the leading for Best Picture Switched from The Shape of Water to Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri to tied over the time I was writing this story. This is the closest I’ve ever seen it. Guessing the best picture correctly will go a long way to winning. More...

Home Market Releases for February 13th, 2018

February 13th, 2018

It’s not a good week in terms of box office numbers, as the biggest box office hit to come out this week is Wonder. It is also one of the best new releases of the week and a contender for Pick of the Week. Other contenders for Pick of the Week include Blade of the Immortal, Night of the Living Dead, The Silence of the Lambs, and The Sinner: Season One. In the end, it was a coin toss between Blade of the Immortal and Night of the Living Dead and the former won. More...

Home Market Releases for January 30th, 2018

January 31st, 2018

This is one of the worse times of year for the home market. Until we start getting the holiday blockbusters landing on DVD / Blu-ray, there’s not much to talk about. That’s not to say there are no good releases, as God’s Own Country, The Square, and Steven Universe: Season One are all easily worth picking up. There are just no big releases. For example, the Pick of the Week goes to Professor Marston & The Wonder Women on Blu-ray, which was sadly ignored by moviegoers when it first hit theaters. More...

2017 Awards Season: Oscars Nominations

January 23rd, 2018

The Oscar nominations were announced starting at just after 5 am Pacific time. They do this every year and no one has been able to adequately explain why to me. At least there were some interesting results this year. The Shape of Water led the way with 13 nominations, which is one below the current record and nearly as many as the next two films combined. Overall, there were seventeen films that earned two or more nominations. More...

2017 Box Office Totals: $11.09 billion Isn’t Enough

January 20th, 2018

NATO, the North American Theater Owners, have released their annual box office numbers, and 2017 had some mixed results. The total box office was down 2.55% to $11.09 billion, which is the third-biggest yearly box office total of all time, behind $11.12 billion earned in 2015 and $11.37 billion earned in 2016. Meanwhile, ticket prices rose 4% to $8.97. This means total attendance was 1.236 billion, the lowest since 1995. That is troubling, but not as apocalyptic as some have made it out to be, as it is only 2.7% lower than 2014’s attendance figure. Obviously, we would like to see increases in this figure every year, but we shouldn’t panic just yet. If 2018 bounces back, then we can still say the overall box office is healthy. If we see another 6-point drop in attendance in 2018, then we can panic. More...

2017 Awards Season: BAFTA Nominations

January 11th, 2018

The BAFTA nominations were announced and this time The Shape of Water led the way with 12 nominations. The same films appear on many of the lists of nominees, but so far no one film has come to dominate the list. This makes it interesting, to say the least. There’s a good chance no one film will win the majority of prestige awards and that multiple films will have lots of reason to celebrate on February 18th when the awards are handed out. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Last Jedi Tops Expectations with $220.01 million, Ferdinand is a Distant Second Place

December 19th, 2017

We already discussed Star Wars: The Last Jedi’s incredible debut yesterday, but there were other films that were in theaters over the weekend. The Last Jedi earned nearly 80% of the total weekend box office, so the rest of the box office had to settle for the leftovers. Ferdinand was a distant second with just $13.40 million, which is lower than our low expectations. Overall, the box office more than tripled from last week hitting $278 million. More importantly, it rose by 31% when compared to this weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2017 cut 2016’s lead by nearly $100 million in just one week. Granted, 2017 is still behind by $320 million or 3.0% at $10.10 billion to $10.42 billion. However, I just wanted 2017 to cut the lead to $250 million and that looks a lot more likely now than it did even a month ago. More...

Weekend Predictions: Last Jedi Goes up Against Rogue and Awakens

December 14th, 2017

2017 is behind 2016’s pace by over $400 million and and this weekend is the last chance it has to cut that deficit by any real margin. This weekend, Star Wars: The Last Jedi debuts and it is practically a guaranteed monster hit. Rogue One made just over $400 million in the 2016 calendar year, while The Force Awakens earned just over $650 million. The Last Jedi is widely expected to earn somewhere in-between those results. In the meantime, there is one other wide release, Ferdinand, which is the textbook definition of counter-programming. The studio is just hoping it doesn’t get lost in the crowd. This weekend last year, the total box office was $211.57 million. I give The Last Jedi about a 50/50 chance of topping that by itself. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Coco Continues its Conquest with $18.45 million

December 12th, 2017

It was a good weekend at the box office, relatively speaking, as most films in the top five beat expectations. Granted, this was mostly by tiny amounts, but it added up. We still fell 20% compared to last week to $84 million. This is 1.2% higher than the same weekend last year and we were expecting a similarly close loss, so this is a surprise victory. The year-over-year numbers are almost identical to last week, with this year down by 4.1% or $420 million when compared to last year. Right now 2017 has pulled in $9.79 billion, while 2016 had a running tally of $10.21 billion. More...

Weekend Estimates: Disaster Artist Hits, Just Getting Started Misses

December 10th, 2017

Coco remains the number one movie at the box office this weekend by a considerable margin, mainly due to a lack of serious competition from new releases. Disney’s animated adventure will gross about $18.3 million this weekend, for a domestic total of $135.5 million. The film will also pile up another $55.3 million internationally, taking its worldwide cume to $389.5 million. It still has some big openings to come, including Brazil, Korea, the UK, and Japan in January, so it has some way to go, although its progress will be eclipsed by The Last Jedi for the next few weeks. More...

Friday Estimates: Coco Clings to the Top, Disaster Artist Achieves a Spot in the Top Five

December 9th, 2017

Coco surprised no one by earning first place on Friday. It earned $4.27 million, giving it a running tally of $121.48 million after 17 days of release and putting it on pace for $19 million over the weekend. Good news: This is a little better than expected. Bad news: Next weekend could be a mess, as the film will not only have to deal with monster competition, but direct competition as well. If it can avoid being demolished at the box office next weekend, then it will stick around in the top ten for the rest of the year. Even if if does get demolished, it still has a shot at $200 million domestically, but it will be close. More...

Weekend Predictions: Coco Looks to Threepeat on Top

December 8th, 2017

There is only one wide release this weekend, Just Getting Started. However, it is barely opening wide and is widely expected to miss the top ten. This means the top five will barely change from last week and Coco should have no trouble remaining on top of the chart. This weekend last year, Office Christmas Party opened in second place, behind Moana. Office Christmas Party was hardly a monster hit, but it was strong enough to keep 2017 from winning the year-over-year comparison. Hopefully, it will still be close. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Coco Holds Strong with $27.53 million, But Moana Sails Further Away

December 5th, 2017

It was a good weekend, as every film in the top five beat expectations at the weekend box office. Granted, in most cases it was by a tiny amount, but any victory is worth celebrating at this point. It has been a really bad year at the box office. (Or to be more accurate, the summer was historically bad and the rest of the year hasn’t been able to compensate.) Coco led the way with $27.53 million and thanks to the holidays, should stick around in the top ten until early 2018 helping it get past $200 million with ease. The overall box office fell 44% from last weekend to $105 million; however, it is a post-holiday weekend, so a decline like this was expected. More importantly, the box office rose 9.7% from last year and this is reason to celebrate. Year-to-date, 2017 is still behind 2016’s pace by 4.1% / $410 million, at $9.68 billion to $10.09 billion, but if we can maintain this pace for the rest of the year, then we could really cut into 2016’s lead. More...

Friday Estimates: Coco Pulls In $6.28 million, but Disaster and Water Rule the Box Office

December 2nd, 2017

Coco beat expectations by a tiny margin on Friday, earning $6.28 million. This is 67% lower than its opening Friday, but its opening Friday was also a Holiday, so that’s to be expected. Look for $27 million over the full weekend, which is a little lower than Moana’s second weekend of release, but the gap between the two is closing. Given Coco’s reviews and its A+ from CinemaScore, it might start catching up by this time next week. More...

Weekend Predictions: Coco Will Repeat on Top, but Can it Catch Up with Moana?

November 30th, 2017

There are no wide releases this weekend, which means Coco should have no trouble remaining on top of the chart. In fact, most of the top five will remain the same as last weekend. Maybe one of the Awards Season contenders will expand enough to grab a spot in the top five, but that isn’t really likely. This weekend last year, Moana remained in first place, as there were also no new releases to compete against. 2017 should be able to win in the year-over-year comparison, but it will be awfully close. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Coco is Cream of the Crop with $50.80 / $72.91 million

November 28th, 2017

Coco gave Disney yet another reason to be thankful for Thanksgiving weekend. It topped the chart, to give the studio 10 of the 11 biggest Thanksgiving openings of all time. Meanwhile, Justice League fell a little bit faster than expected, and $250 million domestically might be out of reach. It depends on how well it holds onto its theater count when The Last Jedi opens. Overall, the box office fell 5.2% from last weekend to $189 million. This is 2.4% higher than the same weekend last year. Granted, that’s not enough to deal with inflation, but at this point, I’m willing to use any excuse to celebrate. Year-to-date, 2017 was able to close the gap with 2016, but is still behind 4.1% with $9.53 billion to $9.95 billion. More...

Friday Estimates: Coco Opens Strong, But Moana was Stronger

November 25th, 2017

It’s the Saturday after Black Friday, so things are returning to normal. Coco is leading the way, which no one should be terribly surprised by. It earned $13.24 million on Wednesday, which was about 15% lower than Moana’s opening day. It held on better on Thursday, cutting the gap to about 10% with $8.93 million. However, by Friday, it was behind Moana by 15% again. That said, if is maintains this pace throughout the rest of the weekend it will earn $48 million / $71 million during its opening weekend. This is almost exactly as I predicted and more than enough to make Disney very happy. Furthermore, thanks to 96% positive review and an amazing A plus from CinemaScore, as well as no real competition for the next two weeks, the film should have excellent legs. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Coco Come to Life at the Box Office?

November 22nd, 2017

Coco is the only wide release of the week, which is amazing for Thanksgiving weekend. This should boost its chances at the box office and it is now expected to open in first place. Justice League was expected to repeat as box office champion this weekend, but that’s likely not going to happen now. This weekend last year, Moana earned $82 million over the five-day weekend. I don’t think Coco will match that, but it will come close enough to top the chart. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Justice is Leagues ahead of Competition, but Misses Expectations with $93.84 million

November 21st, 2017

Justice League easily won the race for first place on the weekend box office chart. However, it only managed $93.84 million, which is substantially lower than it was expected to open with. In fact, it’s the first film in the DCEU to not open with more than $100 million. (To be fair, it is doing better internationally.) Wonder was a surprising hit in second place and it helped the box office rise 32% from last weekend to $199 million. More importantly, this weekend was 26% higher than the same weekend last year. 2017 ended its most recent slump, but it is still 4.5% or $430 million behind last year’s pace at $9.21 billion to $9.65 billion. More...

Weekend Estimates: How Much Trouble Does a $96 Million Opening Spell for the DCEU?

November 19th, 2017

Justice League was meant to the be the big pay-off for the first phase of the DC Extended Universe, bringing together the characters introduced in Man of Steel, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, and Wonder Woman, and setting the stage for next year’s Aquaman. The huge success of Wonder Woman this Summer seemed to be just the kick the franchise needed, and, given the history of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, which enjoyed steadily building success leading up to the gigantic opening of The Avengers, an opening north of $150 million, and maybe even approaching $200 million seemed a possibility a couple of months ago. In that context, the $96 million projected weekend announced by Warner Bros. this morning looks like a huge disappointment. What does it mean for the franchise? More...

Friday Estimates: Justice Prevails on Friday with $38.8 Million, but the DCEU in Peril

November 18th, 2017

As predicted, Justice League dominated the Friday box office chart, earning four times its nearest competitor. However, it only managed $38.8 million on Friday, which is well below expectations. In fact, tracking has been dropping and the film is now widely expected to open with less than $100 million over the weekend, making it the only film in the DCEU to fail to reach the century mark during its opening weekend. There are a number of reasons why this film is struggling. Firstly, except for Wonder Woman, no film in the franchise has earned good reviews and mainstream audiences may have given up on the franchise. Secondly, the troubled production meant a lot of people who were part of the target audience, but not hardcore D.C. Comics fans, are taking a wait-and-see approach here. Since its reviews are bad, these people are staying home. Its CinemaScore is just a B plus, so it won’t have great legs going forward. Finally, there’s Thor: Ragnarok. That film is proving to be stronger than expected competition, as it started faster and is holding up better than most similar films. I think Warner Bros. is going to have to rethink the entire DCEU before going forward. Aquaman is already in post-production and Wonder Woman 2 is definitely going forward. After that, I’m not sure what films will or will not be made. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Justice League’s $13 million Doesn’t Top Thor

November 17th, 2017

Justice League will have no trouble earning first place this weekend, but it looks like it won’t match Thor: Ragnarok’s opening. The latest in the DCEU opened with $13 million in previews, compared to $14.5 million for Thor: Ragnarok. Assuming the films have the same legs, then Justice League will earn $110 million during its opening weekend, which is a little lower than our prediction. Unfortunately, its reviews are significantly weaker than the Ragnarok’s and that’s going to hurt its legs. I still think it will top $100 million, but it will be closer to Wonder Woman’s $103 million opening weekend than to our original prediction. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Justice Reign at the Box Office?

November 16th, 2017

Justice League is hoping to be the biggest hit of the month, but two things could get in the way of that goal. Firstly, Thor: Ragnarok got off to a faster than expected start. Secondly, Justice League’s reviews are significantly weaker. There are two other films coming out this week, The Star and Wonder, both of whom are simply hoping not to be lost in a crowded marketplace. This crowded marketplace should help 2017 end its slump against 2016. This weekend last year, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them opened in first place with just under $75 million, while there were three other films that earned between $10 million and $20 million. This year, Justice League should top $100 million with ease, while Thor: Ragnarok will earn more than $25 million. The top two films this year should do better than the top five films from last year and that should lead to 2017 earning a comfortable win over 2016 in the year-over-year comparison. More...

2017 Preview: November

November 1st, 2017

October wasn’t a good month; then again, outside of a few bright spots, the overall box office has been a disaster since early summer. I would love to say November will turn things around, but, while it should be better, in this case “better” is a relative term. There are two films on this list with a chance at $300 million, Thor: Ragnarok and Justice League, while Coco is nearly a guarantee for $200 million. By comparison, last November had a similar result with three films earning between $200 million and $300 million, but none topping that figure. This means, if Thor: Ragnarok and Justice League both get to that milestone, then 2017 could cut into 2016’s lead during the month. It will still take a minor miracle for 2017 to catch up in the end, but just cutting the lead in half by the end of December would be a reason to celebrate at this point. More...

Wonder Trailer

May 25th, 2017

Drama starring Jacob Tremblay, Julia Roberts, and Owen Wilson opens November 17 ... Full Movie Details. More...