The Numbers News - April 2025
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Weekend projections: Sinners heads into the stratosphere with $45-million second weekend
April 27, 2025
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Sinners will decline just 6% from its opening weekend to earn $45 million, according to Warner Bros. Sunday-morning projection. Taking out the film’s $4.7 million in previews, it’s actually up from last weekend, with Saturday’s estimated gross, $18.8 million, 14% higher than last Saturday. That’s an off-the-charts crazy performance. And there’s more…
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Weekend predictions: Sinners looking to hold on at top as multiple new releases mount serious challenges
April 25, 2025
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Sinners is the clear favorite to win at the box office this weekend, but The Accountant 2 and Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith are both mounting strong challenges, and A Minecraft Movie is still doing good business. Our model is predicting a fairly close race at the top, but there’s reason to believe Sinners will turn out to be a fairly comfortable winner.
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Theater counts: Minecraft digs up another weekend as widest release
April 24, 2025
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It was number one and two for Warner Bros. at the weekend box office, with newcomer Sinners taking the lead and ending the reign of A Minecraft Movie as the Michael B. Jordan film collected a handsome $48 million in its weekend debut. The film currently enjoys a six-day total of $71 million and is poised for another weekend win if it can fend off a new batch of films ready to challenge the current titleholder. For another week, however, A Minecraft Movie will continue to be the most accessible film in the land.
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I Know What You Did Last Summer trailer
April 22, 2025
Slasher horror movie starring Madelyn Cline, Sarah Pidgeon, Tyriq Withers, and Jonah Hauer-King, with Jennifer Love Hewitt and Freddie Prinze, Jr. returning to the franchise, opens in theaters July 18. Full movie details.
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Weekend projections: Sinners tops Easter weekend chart with impressive $45.6 million
April 20, 2025
Sinners will, somewhat ironically, take the box office crown this Easter weekend, with an impressive $45.6 million. That’s just enough to knock A Minecraft Movie out of top spot, as the video-game movie falls about 47% to $41.3 million in its third weekend. The King of Kings is making the most of the religious holiday, finishing in third spot with $17.3 million, just 11% down from its opening number last weekend.
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Weekend predictions: Sinners to open strong, challenging Minecraft for box office crown
April 18, 2025
Sinners is opening to fantastic reviews and posted good preview numbers on Thursday, with $4.7 million already in the bank going into Friday. Our model thinks that should translate into an opening weekend around $47 million. Whether that will be enough to defeat A Minecraft Movie depends on how that family-friendly film competes over Easter weekend.
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Theater counts: Minecraft three-peats as widest release
April 17, 2025
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It was another big weekend for the number one film in the land, as A Minecraft Movie tallied up over $78 million in its second go-around, taking its 10-day total to $278.86M, easily leading the way over the second-and-third place finishers, newcomers The King of Kings and The Amateur, finishing out their opening weekend with $19.4 million and $14.8 million respectively. This weekend will be a much tighter race for Minecraft, however, as studio sibling Sinners makes its way into theaters.
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The Numbers Research Services: Trusted by filmmakers. Backed by data.
April 17, 2025
In filmmaking, every decision counts. At The Numbers, we give you the data to make every one with confidence.
For over two decades, we’ve been the go-to research partner for filmmakers, investors, distributors, and industry professionals seeking smarter, data-backed decisions across development, financing, and distribution. Powered by a dedicated analytics team, we deliver clear, objective insights that move projects forward. The results speak from themselves: we’ve worked on well over a thousand movie projects, and you’ve almost certainly seen more than one of them yourself.
Whether you're in the early stages of planning, in production, or preparing for distribution, our research services give you the critical intel to maximize your film’s potential. We’ve worked with first-time filmmakers just starting out, to some of the biggest names in the business. Here’s a closer look.
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The Accountant 2 trailer
April 17, 2025
Action movie starring Ben Affleck opens in theaters April 25. Full movie details.
Christian Wolff has a talent for solving complex problems. When an old acquaintance is murdered, leaving behind a cryptic message to “find the accountant,” Wolff is compelled to solve the case. Realizing more extreme measures are necessary, Wolff recruits his estranged and highly lethal brother, Brax, to help. In partnership with U.S. Treasury Deputy Director Marybeth Medina, they uncover a deadly conspiracy, becoming targets of a ruthless network of killers who will stop at nothing to keep their secrets buried.
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Sinners trailer
April 15, 2025
Ryan Coogler’s supernatural horror movie, starring Michael B. Jordan opens in theaters on Friday, April 18. Full movie details.
Trying to leave their troubled lives behind, twin brothers return to their hometown to start again, only to discover that an even greater evil is waiting to welcome them back.
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Weekend projections: Minecraft enjoys strong hold against army of new releases
April 13, 2025
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A Minecraft Movie was always going to be the top earner at the box office this weekend, but it’s doing so in some style, dropping just 50% from its gargantuan opening. Warner Bros. is projecting $80.6 million for the movie as of Sunday morning, more than four times the $19 million projected for the number two film, The King of Kings.
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Weekend Predictions: King of Kings looking for second place behind dominant Minecraft
April 11, 2025
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A Minecraft Movie will remain safely at the top of the box office chart this weekend as no less than five new releases battle for second place. Our model thinks The King of Kings will finish second, but with so many new releases aimed at different audiences, there’s a lot of uncertainty over how everything will work out.
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Theater counts: Minecraft stacks on more theaters to remain widest release
April 10, 2025
There’s a new leader in town, and it goes by the name of Minecraft. A Minecraft Movie blew away nearly all expectations in its opening weekend, scoring just short of $163 million from its start in 4,263 theaters, and becoming the largest domestic opening weekend since last July when Deadpool & Wolverine debuted with $211 million. While a plethora of newcomers make their way to the big screen this weekend, none will pose a serious threat to topple the reigning champ.
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The Numbers Business Report: short theatrical windows cost domestic theaters about $100 million a year
April 9, 2025
CinemaCon buzzed with excitement over new release dates, sneak peeks, and announcements, but one topic dominated discussions more than any other: theatrical windows. We’ve been tracking this aspect of the theatrical business monthly in The Numbers Business Report, but in the latest issue, we took an deeper dive, applying our data analytics to offer an objective look of what's truly happening in the market.
Our cover story is about the economics of release windows, and specifically their impact on box office and home video earnings. The answer is a little more nuanced than you might think, but (spoiler alert!), we show that early releases reduce theatrical receipts overall.
Way back in October 2023, in the first edition of the Business Report, we ran an analysis to see how premium video (PVOD) releases were harming the theatrical performance of films. AMC’s CEO Adam Aron brought up this topic up on a recent earnings call, and that prompted us to take another look. Since it was also the hot topic at CinemaCon, we’re glad we did! Our new analysis shows that PVOD releases still impact box office, to the tune of around $80 million to $130 million a year in the domestic market, with shorter windows generally causing bigger harm, with the exception of films with 18-day windows, which actually seem to benefit slightly from an early PVOD release (we discuss why that might be in the report)…
With new data from the last four years, and the new VOD tracking we recently introduced in OpusData, we can also get a first idea of how much the studios are making from their shorter windows. The results aren’t conclusive, but our numbers suggest that the studios aren’t necessarily making much more money from a policy of short windows once lost theatrical earnings are taken into account. Read the report for our full, in-depth analysis and details of our methodology.
Additionally, as part of this edition, we put together a more comprehensive analysis of release windows for 2024 for both digital and streaming.
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Mission: Impossible—The Final Reckoning trailer 2
April 9, 2025
Action movie starring Tom Cruise opens in theaters May 23. Full movie details.
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Weekend projections: Minecraft blasts into theaters with $157-million weekend
April 6, 2025
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A Minecraft Movie is taking advantage of Spring Break to perfection this weekend, with a stunning $157-million debut weekend—far higher than expected, even when ticket pre-sales were taking off in the days leading up to its release. That’s not just the best weekend of the year, but the best ever for a movie based on a game, and the sixth-highest weekend for a movie that’s not a sequel.
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Weekend predictions: Minecraft heading to monster opening
April 4, 2025
A Minecraft Movie will post the best weekend of 2025, easily topping Captain America: Brave New World’s $88.8 million, and looking very likely to exceed $100 million.
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Theater counts: A Minecraft Movie thrusts into 4,263 theaters
April 3, 2025
It was a dogfight at the weekend box office with newcomer A Working Man edging out the previous chart topper, Disney’s Snow White, by $1.18 million, hauling in $15.51 million in its first three days. It will be one and done at the top of the box office for the Jason Statham action pic, however as another newcomer makes its cinematic arrival, this time in the form of the adventure-comedy, A Minecraft Movie.
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