This graph shows Jason Bateman’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
2018 got off to a good start and January more or less held its ground when compared to 2017. There were some misses, but surprise holdovers made up the difference. Looking forward, February will be dominated by Black Panther. In fact, it will very likely make more during its opening weekend than the second place film, Fifty Shades Freed, will likely make in total. Black Panther likely won’t break records, but it could come close, while Fifty Shade Freed and Peter Rabbit both have a 50/50 shot at $100 million. Last February, The Lego Batman Movie both earned $175 million, while Fifty Shades Darker earned over $100 million. Black Panther will easily beat any film from last February; in fact, it could earn more than the top two films earned combined. As long as the rest of the box office isn’t a complete disaster, February should help 2018 earn a significant edge over 2017 in the year-over-year comparisons.
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November was good, but not great. Fortunately, 2016 had a large enough lead going into November that the month only needed to be good. In fact, it could have been mediocre and 2016 would have still had an excellent shot to end the year above 2015. As for December, it’s a race between Star Wars and Star Wars. Almost no one thinks Rogue One is going to match The Force Awakens, but if Rogue One earns just half of what The Force Awakens managed, then 2016 will come out on top in the year-over-year comparison. There are only two other films with a better than 50/50 chance of hitting $100 million, Passengers and Sing. Either one could earn second place for the month, but Passengers will likely start faster. Last December, the only other film to earn more than $100 million was Daddy’s Home, which earned just a hair over $150 million. There’s a chance both Passengers and Sing will earn more than $150 million, which would be a boon to the box office. However, Star Wars: The Force Awakens was just too strong last year and it would take a miracle for 2016 to have a stronger December. That said, it would take a complete collapse for 2016 not to top 2015 in raw dollars. The growth might not be enough to keep pace with ticket price inflation, on the other hand.
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It’s Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This week we will tackle first run releases, as well as franchise box sets, although there aren’t many of the latter to talk about. In fact, the best movie box set of the year includes more TV shows than movies in its running time and I’ve decided to include it in our second part, which deals with TV on DVD releases. There are still a number of big first-run releases this year that are definitely worthy gifts. We are going to start with the biggest domestic hit of the year...
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It's a strange week on the home market, as there are no first-run releases and very few other releases to make up the difference. There are some contenders for Pick of the Week, but all of them are foreign-language films, which is again odd. In fact, two of them, Only Yesterday and The Boy and the World, are animated. However, in the end, I went with The Mermaid, which deserves to be seen by more and Blu-ray is a great way to see it.
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Zootopia is slowly making its way to $1 billion worldwide [Copy Ed: It passed $1 billion this weekend], but in the meantime, it arrives on the home market this week. It is one of the biggest hits of the year so far and earned Oscar-worthy reviews. Will my voice be added to choir of praise? Or will I be part of the dissenting minority?
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It's March 1st, which is not only the beginning of the month, but also Super Tuesday. If you are not American and don't pay attention to American politics, Super Tuesday is sort of like the Oscar night of the primary season. I was going to write about my predictions, but it looks like the race is about to be over. On the Republicans side, if Trump gets more than 50% of the delegates, then he has won. It will be too late to stop him. If he gets less than 40%, then it becomes a real race again. If the polling is correct, then he will get closer to 50% than 40%. On the Democratic side, Sanders needs at least 45% of the delegates, or it is over for him. Anything less than that and Hillary Clinton will have too big a lead to overcome. If the South Carolina result is an indicator, Hillary Clinton could get two-thirds of the delegates awarded tonight.
As for the box office, February was amazing, thanks to Deadpool's record-breaking opening and better than expected legs. The month ended with 2016 being nearly 4% higher than 2015's pace. Additionally, there are some big releases coming out this month with both Zootopia and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice looking to get more than $200 million, while Allegiant should hit $100 million. Last March, there were also three films that earned more than $100 million, but only one $200 million hit, Cinderella. It should be a really close race between 2016 and 2015.
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It's the week of double-dips, as there are five double-dips for films that would normally be Pick of the Week contenders, but only if you don't have them already. Army Of Darkness has been released so many times, it is hard to keep track of them all. Same with Monty Python and the Holy Grail. If you don't own either of these movies, you need to buy them. However, most fans will already have them. Because of this, I'm giving the Pick of the Week to Mad Men. I reviewed Season Seven, Part Two, but the Complete Series Megaset is the better deal.
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It is still a little too soon to tell how July will finish, as we don't have any numbers for the final weekend at the time of writing. We know Minions was a monster hit and that Ant-man will be a financial success. However, until we see how Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation does, it will be impossible to call the month a true success. If Rogue Nation bombed this weekend, then the month is only a partial success. It would also mean the summer of 2015 could be coming to an abrupt end. As for August, only Fantastic Four has a better than 50/50 chance of reaching $100 million; although some people think Straight Outta Compton also has a shot at that milestone. Besides those two, only a couple of other films even have a realistic shot at becoming midlevel hits. Worse still, last August was amazing with Guardians of the Galaxy breaking records. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles also did better than expected with a domestic haul of nearly $200 million. No release this August is going to match that figure. There's a good chance the top two releases combined won't do so. Fortunately, 2015 has a sizable lead over 2014, so even a soft month will keep 2015 ahead in the year-over-year comparison.
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August was a great month, it is as simple as that. Not only did Guardians of the Galaxy break records, but Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles was a surprise hit as well. These early gains led to an extended winning streak in the year-over-year comparison. Granted, 2014 is still more than $300 million behind 2013, but this is substantially less than the gap was before the month. Can September maintain this run? I'm not sure. Last September was strong compared to most Septembers with Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 earning more than $100 million while Insidious Chapter 2 came relatively close. This year, there likely won't be any $100 million hits, but I think The Equalizer should at least come close. Meanwhile, there are some who think The Maze Runner will be the biggest hit of the month, but I'm not among them. There have been too many similar releases that have struggled to think this one will be a hit. I think September will get off to a terrible start, but overall I think it will be close to last year.
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It is a terrible week on the home market. I could just leave that as my opening sentence on this column all summer long and the vast majority of the time it would fit perfectly. This week, the biggest new release is Raid 2, a foreign-language action film. The second biggest release is Jodorowsky's Dune, a documentary about a movie that was never made. Neither release will sell a ton of units. However, both earned greatreviews and both are contenders for Pick of the Week. The third and final contender is Le Week-End, which is earning reviews that are just as good, but the film appears to be selling far fewer units on the home market. While all three releases are worth picking up, Jodorowsky's Dune on Blu-ray Combo Pack is the best this week and it is the winner of the Pick of the Week.
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There could be as many as two-dozen limited releases opening this week, which is insane. That's so many that I'm going to have to limit the ones I talk about to those that I can easily find release dates and / or theater listings for on official sites. (I should really do this every week, because too many times I talk about a film opening in limited release, only to never hear about the movie again.) The competition is overwhelming, but there are a few that rise above the crowd. Veronica Mars is opening wider than any other film and its reviews are pretty good. On the other hand, it is also playing on Video on Demand, so its box office numbers might be really weak. Bad Words is only opening in six theaters tonight, but since it already has a wide expansion planned for the 28th, one could say it is the biggest release of the week. There are several other films on this week's list that could find an audience (Enemy, Exposed, On My Way, etc.) but the competition will likely prove to be too much.
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2014 continued its strong run in February with The Lego Movie beating even the high end expectations and will become the first film released in 2014 to reach $200 million. March doesn't look as strong, as no film is on track to hit $200 million, but there are five films that have a chance at $100 million. Granted, not all of them will get there; in fact, there's a chance only one of them will get there. Divergent is the film I think has the best shot at the century club, but it could be joined by Mr. Peabody and Sherman, for instance, which is earning surprisingly strong reviews. Noah is a big-budget Bible epic and the studio has to be hoping for at least $100 million, but the buzz is quite negative and there have been reports of troubles behind-the-scenes. Last March was led by Oz The Great and Powerful, which pulled in more than $200 million domestically. I don't think any film opening this March will match that figure. In addition, The Croods and G.I. Joe: Retaliation also hit the $100 million milestone, while Olympus Has Fallen came very close. Granted, there were also some big bombs last March, like The Host, but even so, I think 2014 will lose ground in the year-over-year comparison.
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Universal has a winner on its hands this weekend, as Identity Thief is set to make a very impressive $36.5 million or so, according to their Sunday tracking, and that in spite of the big storm in the Northeast (reportedly causing a 10% at the box office) and mediocre reviews. The performance is perhaps helped by the surfeit of Oscar-hopefuls and action movies in theaters recently, and is clearly also a feather in the cap for stars Jason Bateman and Melissa McCarthy. The weekend's other opener, Side Effects is set for a more modest $10 million, which isn't exactly DOA, but is at best on life support. Perhaps good word of mouth will help it hang on in theaters for a while.
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There are two wide releases this week, Identity Thief and Side Effects. One of these films is earning amazing reviews and one of them is the overwhelming favorite to win the box office race. Identity Thief looks like it is going to finish in first place and it's only real competition is from last year. Last year the box office was led by a one-two punch of The Vow and Safe House, both of which earned more than $40 million. No movie is going to do that this year, so 2013 is going to lose big this week.
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For the most part, January was a really good month and 2013 got off to a really good start. I'm not so sure about February, on the other hand. There's only one film that has a statistically significant shot at $100 million, A Good Day to Die Hard, but I'm a little concerned that it won't live up to expectations. The franchise has been around a long time and it is possible that the target audience has either moved on or are too young to remember when these films were huge at the box office. The film I'm most looking forward to seeing is Warm Bodies, which is earning amazing early reviews (the keyword there is "early"), but it is too high-concept to be a major hit. Last February, there were a coupleof films that topped $100 million, plus a few other midlevel hits. I would like to think that would also be the case this year, but I have to be more cautious than that. The evidence points to a weak month ahead, for the most part.
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