This graph shows Pierce Brosnan’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
After topping Spider-Man: No Way Home at the weekend box office, Scream has spent the week trading spots with the webbed superhero, with one outperforming the other one day, only to fall into second place the next. Spider-Man enters its sixth week by showing in 3,705 theaters while Scream gains two locations, bringing this week’s count to 3,666 in its sophomore run. Both films will most likely once again spar to see who takes the top prize at the box office, although two new wide releases will be trying to offer some competition.
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After an 11-year hiatus, Ghostface is back, terrifying the townspeople of Woodsboro. The first film in the Scream franchise not to be directed by Wes Craven, Scream (colloquially known as Scream 5) is helmed by the directing duo of Matt Bettinelli-Olpin and Tyler Gillett, both of whom previously directed 2014’s Devil’s Due, and 2019’s Ready or Not. Through its first four films, between 1996 and 2011, the franchise has earned just over $600 million worldwide. The latest installment, which had a $24-million production budget, brings back franchise veterans Courteney Cox, David Arquette and Neve Campbell along with a cast of new faces. Scream will open in 3,664 theaters. Also opening in wide release this week is the Japanese animated science fantasy film Belle. The film, which was the third-highest-grossing Japanese film of 2021, is set to arrive in an estimated 1,300 locations.
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King Louis XIV’s quest for immortality leads him to capture and steal a mermaid’s life force, a move that is complicated by his illegitimate daughter’s discovery of the creature.
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Every week, I have to decide which limited releases to talk about in the main list of this column. Usually I limit myself to those with double-digit reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. Last week, there were so few limited releases to talk about, I included some that I wouldn’t normally include. This week, there are about 30 films coming out in limited release, so I have to be extra judicious and cut some films just to keep the list manageable. Unfortunately, it feels like a case of quantity over quality. There are some movies that are getting excellent reviews, but a lot of movies that had strong pre-release buzz are disappointing critically. There are some I’m interested in, like I Think We’re Alone Now, but that’s more for the cast than the reviews. Mandy is one of the best films, but it is playing on Video on Demand, so I don’t expect it will do well at the box office. There are also several documentaries, with Science Fair being the one I want to see the most.
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June was amazing, with two absolutemonster hits and a solid $100 million hit. By the end of the month, 2018’s lead over 2017 will be well over $500 million, or close to 10%. Even if 2018 only managed to maintain this lead in terms of raw numbers for the rest of the year, it will be a massive jump at the box office. As for July, there are a couple of potential monster hits, Ant-Man and the Wasp and Mission: Impossible—Fallout, plus four potential $100 million hits. Last July, there was only one monster hit, Spider-Man: Homecoming, and three$100 millionhits. I don’t think 2018 will match 2017 at the top, but 2018 appears to have more depth and that should put it a little ahead over the full month.
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This weekend will be another winner for horror movies, with Happy Death Day powering into first place with a projected $26.5 million, according to Universal’s Sunday morning numbers. That puts it miles ahead of Blade Runner 2049, which failed to broaden its audience this weekend, and is down 54% to $15.1 million, for $60.6 million in total.
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September destroyed the previous September monthly record for total box office take, with $800 million or so (we won’t know the exact figure until after the weekend), which tops 2016’s record of $616 million. Granted, this is almost entirely due to It’s record breaking run, and the rest of the month was merely average. Kingsman: The Golden Circle was the only other film to come close to $100 million. October doesn’t look any better, as far as depth is concerned. Blade Runner 2049 is widely expected to be the biggest hit of the month, but it is the only film expected to reach $100 million domestically. Boo 2 should be the second biggest hit of the month, while there are only a couple of other films that have a shot at $50 million. Part of the problem is the level of competition, as there are 16 films opening during the four October weekends. (Needless to say, some of the predictions below will be a little short, as there’s not much to say about a film that will barely open in the top ten and disappear two weeks later.) That’s way too many and most will be buried by the competition. Last October was a flop, as no film earned more than $100 million at the box office. There were a few films that came close, including the original Boo! movie. As long as Blade Runner 2049 matches expectations, 2017 should win the year-over-year comparison by a small margin. If we get one surprise hit, then 2017 has a real shot at closing the gap with 2016 by a significant margin. I choose to be cautiously optimistic.
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July was... well... let's just pretend it didn't happen. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes did well, but week after week 2014 fell further behind 2013 in the year-to-date comparison. At the moment, we are roughly $400 million behind last year's pace and while I don't think August will continue the losing streak, there's really no chance August will put a dent in that number. It looks more and more likely that Guardians of the Galaxy will be a hit, especially given its early reviews, but it could be the last $100 million hit till October, if the bad buzz surrounding Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles turns into bad ticket sales. Last August there were two films that reached $100 million, plus two others that came close. This August might match that, while the biggest film this year should top the biggest film from last year. I think the slump 2014 is suffering through will end the first weekend and overall I think it will cut the deficit a little bit. That said, summer 2014 will still end as one of the worst recent summers at the box office.
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It is not a particularly strong week for limited releases. There are a few that are earning good reviews, but almost none are earning good reviews and any buzz. Cold in July is one of the exceptions and its reviews and star power could have resulted in a fast start, but it is also playing on Video on Demand.
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