August 20th, 2013
The home market is rather slow this week with Epic the only first run release of note. (Scary Movie 5 is very unnoteworthy. Fortunately, there are some good TV on DVD releases worth checking out, like Revenge: The Complete Second Season and NCIS: Season Ten. In the end, I went with Boardwalk Empire: The Complete Third Season on Blu-ray Combo Pack for Pick of the Week.
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February 26th, 2013
No remained in top spot on the per theater chart with an average of $11,625 in six theaters. It should continue to expand and it might reach a major milestone before too long.
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February 25th, 2013
Argo was the big winner at the Oscars last night, although arguably, there were no big winners, but a lot of films that shared in the glory. There were also some pretty interesting twists and a few events that stand out. Due to ongoing computer difficulties, I was unable to live-blog the Oscars this year. I will still be giving my reactions on a category by category basis, but not in the order they were handed out.
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February 24th, 2013
Voting is closed in our annual Predict the Academy Awards contest, and Argo is the clear favorite to pick up the Best Picture award, based on the opinion of nearly 500 entrants. Ben Affleck's thriller took an impressive 80% of the vote, more than six times the score of Lincoln, which took second place in the poll. Coincidentally, the contest has predicted the winner of the Best Picture Oscar 80% of the time in the 15 years we've been running it. Quite a few other categories have strong favorites, but there are also some really close calls, and it looks as though the awards will be shared by several films tonight.
- Votes in Each Category
- Predicted Winners in Each Category
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February 24th, 2013
Independent Spirit Award were handed out yesterday and while the average moviegoer will be more focused on the Oscars tonight, a lot of great films were honored yesterday. This includes Silver Linings Playbook, which took home numerous awards, including the top prizes.
The categories and winners are...
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February 24th, 2013
The box office crown for Oscar weekend will be claimed by Identity Thief, according to studio estimates released on Sunday morning, even though the comedy will fall by a relatively large 41% from last weekend. So its win is in large part due to the low-key new releases: Snitch will be second with $13 million in a modest 2,511 theaters and Dark Skies is headed for 6th place with $8.85 million from 2,313 theaters. Neither new film has particularly low per theater averages ($5,177 and $3,826 respectively), so their so-so debuts are as much a factor of their smallish opening theater counts as lack of demand.
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February 22nd, 2013
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try to figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. We wrap up our look at the prestigious categories with the most prestigious of them all: Best Picture. Like last year, there are nine nominees. Unlike last year, none of them were completely out of left field. That's not to say they all have a legitimate shot at winning; there's definitely a favorite. However, politics could become an issue. I don't mean politics as in Democrat vs. Republican. I mean behind-the-scenes issues might play a bigger role than what is on the screen. Let's take a look at the nominees, and their chances to claiming the crown on Sunday.
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February 22nd, 2013
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we will look at the Best Director, which is one of the stranger races this year. Before Awards Season began, I thought Kathryn Bigelow would be the favorite. She wasn't even nominated. The evidence suggests Ben Affleck will win. But again, he wasn't even nominated. So with the top two choices not even on the list of nominees, we are looking at the best of the rest.
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February 21st, 2013
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we will look at the two writing categories, finishing with Best Original Screenplay. There are actually three films that could win that and it wouldn't be a total shock if they did. That said, there is still a favorite to contend with.
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February 21st, 2013
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we will look at the four acting categories, finishing with Best Lead Actress. This race is easily the most competitive of the four acting categories this year. The person seen as the favorite has switched, more than once, and at the moment, I'm not sure who is going to win.
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February 21st, 2013
No led the way on the per theater chart with an average of $17,936 in four theaters. The Gatekeepers remained strong with an average of $11,296 in four theaters during its third weekend of release. This is very impressive longevity.
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February 17th, 2013
President's Day weekend will end with a win and a solid opening for A Good Day to Die Hard, based on studio estimates released on Sunday, but it'll be a close run thing. Safe Haven was a predictable winner on Valentine's Day but has faded fast and is projected to earn $21.4 million Friday-Sunday for third place. Second place is going to be claimed by Identity Thief with about $23.4 million over three days, during which time it has steadily caught up with Die Hard, so much so that it has a good chance of winning the day on Monday. The Bruce Willis actioner will, however, get to claim the title for the weekend with a respectable $25 million for three days and close to $40 million in total by the end of Monday.
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February 13th, 2013
The Gatekeepers remained in first place in the per theater chart with an average of $14,024 in three theaters. The only other film to top $10,000 on the per theater chart was Identity Thief with an average of $11,000, which is amazing for a wide release at this time of year.
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February 5th, 2013
The Gatekeepers led the way on the per theater chart with an average of $22,226 in three theaters. The only other member of the $10,000 club was Koch with an average of $17,598 in two. Both films should continue to do well on the art house circuit, but as documentaries, I doubt they will expand significantly.
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February 3rd, 2013
Counter-programming will win the day this Superbowl weekend, with rombie comedy Warm Bodies posting a respectable $20.025 million, according to Lionsgate's Sunday estimate. While there's nothing special about that result, it does give the film a shot at making money, which is more than can be said for actioner Bullet to the Head. Sylvester Stallone's latest will limp to $4.5 million for the weekend, an even worse result than Jason Statham's Parker (which debuted with $7 million) and Arnold Schwarzenegger's The Last Stand ($6.3 million). Put those three together, and you get a combined opening of $17.8 million, which still wouldn't much to write home about if one of them had earned it on its own.
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January 27th, 2013
January will go out like a lamb at the box office, with three new releases failing to catch on with moviegoers this weekend and not much action among the holdovers. Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters will win the weekend more-or-less by default, with a modest $19 million bow from 3,372 theaters. That spells financial disaster for a film that reportedly cost $50 million to make. FilmDistrict's $30 million-budgeted Parker will have a similarly tough time recouping its investment, although lower marketing costs will help. It starts out with $7 million and a per theater average of $3,147. Even more disappointing is Movie 43, which is set to open with $5 million, although its $6 million budget and likely long shelf life on video will avert catastrophe.
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January 23rd, 2013
Amour continues to show legs most limited releases can only dream of. Despite expanding its theater count to 36, the film topped the per theater chart with an average of $11,479. It is very rare for a wide release to reach the $10,000 level during this time of year, but that's exactly what Mama did, as it opened with an average of $10,730 during the three-day portion of the weekend. Quartet might have reached the $10,000 mark. We are still relying on studio estimates and at the moment the studio says it made $320,000 in 32 theaters for an average of exactly $10,000.
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January 20th, 2013
For all the Oscar hype, moviegoers are voting with their feet this MLK weekend for a more straightforward entertainment bang for their buck. Mama is set to win the weekend by a large margin, with Universal estimating a $28.1 million three-day weekend and about $33 million over four days. With the film playing in a relatively modest 2,647 theaters, that translates into a per theater average of $10,625, comfortably ahead of any other wide release. Jessica Chastain has dual reasons to celebrate, with Zero Dark Thirty set to finish second for the weekend with $17.6 million. Fellow Oscar-hopeful Silver Linings Playbook will be third with about $11.35 million over three days in its first weekend in wide release.
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January 15th, 2013
Quartet opened on top of the per theater chart with an average of $23,561 in two theaters. This is very impressive, especially for this time of year. Amour expanded from 3 to 15 theaters, but you couldn't tell from its per theater average, as it held very well down just 14% to $17,138.
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January 14th, 2013
Hollywood Foreign Press Association handed out their awards last night, and the trend of surprises continues. Les Miserables led the way with three awards, only one of which I was truly expecting. Meanwhile, Argo won more awards than Lincoln. I don't think anyone was predicting that.
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January 13th, 2013
As expected, Zero Dark Thirty will ride its Oscar nominations to a win at the box office this weekend, according to studio estimates released on Sunday. But the overall Oscar effect seems quite small. In fact, A Haunted House, which it's safe to say won't be on any Oscar lists this time next year, will have the highest per theater average in the top 10, and came in a very creditable second place with $18.8 million from just 2,160 theaters. Gangster Squad, which has some Oscar-style pedigree, but suffered from a delay for reshoots following the Aurora tragedy, will come in third with a slightly disappointing $16.7 million from 3,103 venues.
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January 10th, 2013
The Oscar nominations were announced this morning, and there's certainly a lot to talk about. There are some nominations that should surprise no one. For instance, Lincoln led the way with twelve nominations, and it has been seen as the major contender for a long time. However, there were also a few surprise nominations and some major snubs. Here are the list of nominations, and some reactions.
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January 8th, 2013
Zero Dark Thirty remained on the top of the per theater chart with an average of $44,933 in 60 theaters. To emphasize, the film saw its theater count leap from 5 to 60, but its per theater average only dropped 29% from $63,283 to $44,933. That's a lower drop-off than the average film in the top ten. At this point, expanding wide is a given, while the film has a solid shot at $100 million. 56 Up opened very strong with $22,088 in one theater. This should help it expand, but it is a documentary, so it is not going to expand wide. Amour remained in the $10,000 club with an average of $19,944. It is still playing in 3 theaters, but it should have room to expand significantly.
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January 6th, 2013
After a few weeks of family fare at the top of the box office charts, teens and young adults are reasserting themselves in movie theaters this weekend, pushing Texas Chainsaw 3D to a surprise win and Django Unchained above The Hobbit. Both films will earn over $20 million this weekend, according to studio estimates. There's also a lot of strength in depth this weekend, with 21 films set to earn over $1 million. That's not quite a record (25 films topped $1 million the weekends of January 12, 2007 and the following weekend -- for the full list, see our analysis), but it's certainly a healthy way to start 2013.
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January 3rd, 2013
Zero Dark Thirty shot up to the top of the per theater chart with averages of $83,430 during its opening weekend and $63,283 during its sophomore stint. Expanding truly wide is virtually guaranteed. Amour was well back with an average of $20,005 over the past weekend and $22,755 during its opening weekend. The Impossible rose 27% to $12,172 in 15 theaters. This is a great sign and while its reviews are too low to be a major contender during Awards Season, it should still do well enough to expand significantly, but probably not truly wide. The final film in the $10,000 club was Django Unchained, which opened with an average of $10,008.
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December 30th, 2012
2012 comes to an end on a decidedly positive note for the movie industry this weekend, thanks to strong performances from three films. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey will come out on top, according to studio estimates released on Sunday, with $32.92 million or so for the weekend and a total to date of $222.7 million. Django Unchained will post an impressive second place with $30.7 million and a per theater average over $10,000. Finally, Les Miserables is set for a little over $28 million, for a six-day total of $67.5 million. With those three films bringing in $90 million between, and plenty of strength in depth, 2012 will finish on a winning note.
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December 20th, 2012
There are not a lot of limited releases on this week's list; however, there are three films that have already found some Awards Season success, plus a couple others that are earning great reviews. Of the Awards Season hopefuls, Zero Dark Thirty is poised to earn the best per theater average, but it likely won't be the only success story over the weekend.
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December 13th, 2012
The Hollywood Foreign Press Association announced their nominations and the same list of films that have been mentioned since the beginning of Awards Season were rewarded today. Lincoln led the way with seven nods, while Argo and Django Unchained were close behind with five.
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November 28th, 2012
The Independent Spirit Awards has a special place in the Awards Season. The nominations are the unoffficial start of Awards Season, but the actual awards aren't given out until Oscar weekend, so they are the beginning at the end of Awards Season. They also help out a lot of limited releases that would otherwise not get enough buzz, although they are not so good at predicting Oscar wins. This year, two films tied for most nominations, Moonrise Kingdom and The Silver Linings Playbook, both of which earned five nominations. They weren't the only films to earn multiple nominations though.
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