July 10th, 2018
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It’s still summer and that means the home market is still terrible. There are less than a dozen new releases on disc on this week’s list, and a lot of them feel like filler. Half of them wouldn’t make the list during a moderately busy week. Only one of them, A Quiet Place, truly stands out and the Blu-ray Combo Pack is easily the Pick of the Week. It’s not the only release worth picking up, as both Lean on Pete on Blu-ray and The Magicians: Season Three are worth picking up.
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July 3rd, 2018
We are deep into the summer doldrums on the home market. Blockers is the biggest first-run release of the week, and also the best. The DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack is a contender for Pick of the Week, thanks in part to the lack of competition. It’s not the only contender, as both Dietrich and von Sternberg in Hollywood: The Criterion Collection and JoJo’s Bizarre Adventure: Set 2: Stardust Crusades Arc are also worthy of that title. In the end, I rolled a dice and Blockers came out on top.
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April 16th, 2018
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Rampage was widely expected to earn first place over the weekend, and it did. However, A Quiet Place gave it a real run for its money and after Friday’s estimates, it looked like the horror film would repeat on top. Meanwhile, Truth or Dare was also a pleasant surprise at the box office earning close to $19 million on a $3.5 million production budget. Overall, the box office fell 9.8% from last weekend to $147 million. This is also 13% lower than the same weekend last year. That said, The Fate of the Furious opened this weekend last year and earned almost $100 million, so it could have been worse. Year-to-date, 2018 is still behind behind 2017 by $70 million or 2.0% or $3.27 billion to $3.33 billion.
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April 9th, 2018
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A Quiet Place not only topped predictions, it nearly doubled them earning $50.20 million during its opening weekend. The rest of the new releases also beat expectations, albeit by much smaller margins. Blockers nearly matched its production budget, while Chappaquiddick and The Miracle Season didn’t embarrass themselves. Add in some strong holds and the total box office was a surprisingly robust $162 million. This is 19% higher than last weekend and 36% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2018 is still behind 2017 by $60 million or 1.8% at $3.07 billion to $3.12 billion. This is half as much as the gap was this time last week, which is great news going forward.
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April 8th, 2018
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If it weren’t for Black Panther, A Quiet Place would be the biggest surprise hit of the year so far. The film earned $50 million during its opening weekend, on a budget of just $17 million. Its initial ad buy was probably less than $25 million, meaning this film earned more in its opening weekend that its combined budget. However, I assume Paramount Pictures put in at least another $10 million ad buy on Saturday after Friday’s estimates showed up. As for the film’s future, its reviews are close to Award-worthy and it earned a B plus from CinemaScore, which is impressive for a horror film. Additionally, the film saw its score rise on Saturday when compared to Friday, which is not common for a new release. Previews plus the opening day rush usually result in small declines for films aimed at this target audience. It is still a horror film and next week there is big competition and direct competition, so its legs likely won’t be great, but its nearly guaranteed a profit by this time next week.
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April 7th, 2018
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There are people at Paramount Pictures walking around with confused looks on their faces. They don’t know what to do, because it has been so long since they have had an unqualified box office hit like this. A Quiet Place earned $19 million on Friday, which is well above expectations and more than it cost to make. Its reviews are 97% positive, while it earned a B plus from CinemaScore, which is amazing for a horror film. Granted, horror films still tend to be front-loaded, but an opening weekend of close to $50 million is possible. Being a little more conservative is probably a good idea, so let’s go with $47 million. We would have to go back to 2016's Arrival to find the last time Paramount had a film that was an unqualified box office hit. That film likely broke even early in its home market run. A Quiet Place will likely break even just on its domestic theatrical numbers.
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April 6th, 2018
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A Quiet Place stunned analysts with $4.3 million during Thursday night previews. This is almost 50% more than many were expecting. Add in its 96% positive reviews and the film has a real shot at opening with over $30 million. By comparison, earlier this year, Insidious: The Last Key earned nearly $2 million during its previews on its way to a nearly $30 million opening. On the other hand, it is a horror film and those tend to be front-loaded, it is wise to be a little conservative. I suspect we will have to raise our expectations when Friday’s numbers arrive tomorrow.
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April 5th, 2018
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There are only two wide releases this week, A Quiet Place and Blockers, both of which are expected to be midlevel hits. There are also two films opening semi-wide, Chappaquiddick and The Miracle Season, neither of which are expected to open in the top five. This weekend last year, The Boss Baby led the way with $26.36 million during its second weekend of release. A Quiet Place could top that, but even if it does, last year’s depth will probably keep 2017 behind 2018 in the year-over-year comparison.
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April 1st, 2018
Well, March has ended and it was a very disappointing month. Black Panther made more than any of the new releases did. The only potential big hit that didn’t miss expectations was Ready Player One. Because of this, 2018 lost its lead over 2017 and is now over $100 million behind last year’s pace. April is usually a terrible month, because it is a dumping ground, especially late in the month. No studio wants to compete with the first monster hit of the Summer. This year, the first monster hit of the summer, Avengers: Infinity War, opens in April. It will make more during its opening weekend than any other April release will make in total. It might make more opening day than any other April release will make in total. The only film that has a real chance to earn more than $100 million is Rampage, a video game adaptation. Last April, The Fate of the Furious earned more than $1.2 billion worldwide, but “only” earned $225.76 million of that domestically. Infinity War should earn more than that opening weekend. The second biggest hit of last April was Smurfs: The Lost Village and Going in Style, both of which earned $45.02 million. If 2018 doesn’t retake the lead by the end of the month, then 2018 is in trouble at the box office.
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March 9th, 2018
Historical drama starring Kate Mara, Jason Clarke, Ed Helms, and Bruce Dern opens April 6 ... Full Movie Details.
A recounting of the tragic events of the 1969 car accident involving U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy and a young, female campaign worker who died at the scene. Kennedy left the scene of the accident and didn’t alert authorities for ten hours. What happens over the ensuing days reveals how one of the most powerful and influential political family dynasties in U.S. history orchestrated the truth behind the death of Mary Jo Kopechne. Their efforts to control the story in the press, run damage control, and preserve the family’s legacy is a story of the powerful and the untouchable. This tension-filled war room became Kennedy’s savior and nemesis, ultimately revealing his vulnerabilities, his damaged relationship with his father, Joe Kennedy Sr., all while testing his integrity and political future. As his brother John’s presidential promise to land a man on the moon unfolds, Kennedy considers his own legacy. This infamous incident will become a defining moment in his career, as he wrestles with his own moral compass, and ultimately puts his future in the hands of the American People.
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