February 15th, 2014
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at Best Animated Feature Film, which looked like it would be competitive for most of the year, then Frozen came out and instantly became the favorite. Is it the favorite? Or is there a dark horse out there?
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January 19th, 2014
Producers Guild of America announce the winners tonight, but it seems I forgot to upload the story when they announced their nominations. In my defense, they announced them on January 2nd. You don't make an announcement on January 2nd, not unless you are trying to bury a story. As for the actual nominations, there are very few differences between this group and others, except when it comes to documentaries. Then again, that's been the norm this year. No one seems to agree on what the best documentaries were.
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January 16th, 2014
The Oscar nominations were announced this morning and there are some surprises mixed in with the predictable results. Gravity and American Hustle led the way with ten nominations each while 12 Years a Slave was right behind with nine. The fact that 12 Years a Slave wasn't the leader is the first of the surprises.
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December 14th, 2013
Hollywood Foreign Press Association announced their Golden Globe nominations this week, and a clear picture is forming. 12 Years a Slave was again the recipient of the most nominations, but this time it was a tie, as it and American Hustle both grabbed seven nominations. If you look down the list of other multi-nominated films, you will find a number of familiar faces.
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October 21st, 2013
This week on the home market is... well... it's short. Last week, according to Amazon.com, there were 459 new releases or reissues. This week there are 161. Fortunately, there are a few releases of note, including The Conjuring, which pulled in more than $300 million worldwide on a production budget of just $20 million. Fortunately, it really deserved this success and the DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack are contenders for Pick of the Week. Other contenders include Before Midnight on DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack and The Way Way Back on DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack. In the end, it was literally a coin toss and The Conjuring won.
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October 16th, 2013
The Croods opened in March with more than $40 million and lasted long enough to pull in more than $180 million domestically and $570 million worldwide. That's a very impressive run for a spring release. Did it deserve this box office success? Or did it thrive because of the lack of direct competition?
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October 1st, 2013
This list is a little short and a little late, because WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO THE INTERNET? The past three days, the internet has been slow as hell. There are a number of interesting releases coming out this week, several of them have screeners that are on their way. Unfortunately, only one screener did arrive on time. Fortunately, it was The Little Mermaid on Blu-ray Combo Pack and it, or the 3D Combo Pack, are worthy of Pick of the Week.
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May 21st, 2013
There was some bad news this weekend, mostly at the top. Star Trek into Darkness did open in first place with a very healthy 4-day total, but it opened below its predecessor and not a lot of people were predicting that. The overall box office fell 2.8% from last weekend to $154 million. On the other hand, this was 7.8% higher than the same weekend last year, which is great news, as 2013 has really struggled in the year-over-year comparison. It's going to take a lot more than one good weekend to turn things around.
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May 16th, 2013
The second big summer release comes out this week, Star Trek into Darkness. The film has already opened internationally and has proven to be a bigger hit than its predecessor was, which is good news for its opening weekend. Iron Man 3 will likely take a pretty big hit due to the direct competition, while The Great Gatsby is a bit of a wild card. This weekend last year there were three wide releases, but the best of them was Battleship, which only made $25.53 million during its opening weekend, while all three new releases made a total of $53 million. Star Trek into Darkness should easily make more than that combined. However, The Avengers still dominated the chart last year and it will be that film that will be the biggest challenge in the year-over-year competition.
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May 15th, 2013
Iron Man 3 earned first place for the third weekend in a row, this time pulling in $89.3 million on 9,921 screens in 55 markets for totals of $664.4 million internationally and $949.3 million worldwide. At this pace, the film will have no trouble getting to $1 billion this coming weekend, while it should enter the top ten of all time by the end of the weekend. The film's single best market of the weekend was China, where it added $32.7 million over the week to its running tally, which now sits at $97.2 million.
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May 9th, 2013
Summer got off to a fantastic start last weekend, but sadly it is not going to continue this weekend. Neither The Great Gatsby nor Peeples have blockbuster potential. In fact, the pair combined won't match Iron Man 3's sophomore stint. This is similar to what happened last year, as Dark Shadows got crushed by The Avengers, which broke yet another record. Iron Man 3 won't be able to do the same this year, but we could have better depth. I'm not saying 2013 will win the weekend, but it won't as bad as it has been either.
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May 8th, 2013
Iron Man 3 remained in top spot on the international chart with $174.3 million on 29,160 screens in 72 markets for totals of $502.8 million internationally and $676.9 million worldwide. The film opened with $64.07 million in China, which makes China the film's biggest international market, despite playing there for half as long as most other major markets. The film dominated Russia with $22.82 million on 1,188 screens over the weekend, which was more than five times the nearest competitor. It also opened in first place in Germany, but with a more subdued $6.91 million on 618 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $10.07 million. This is not a great opening, but one market is nothing compared to the monstrous international run so far. Iron Man 3 held on very well in South Korea down just 19% to $13.53 million on 1,388 screens over the weekend for a total of $43.23 million after two. In the U.K., the film made $9.80 million on 558 screens for a two-week total of $38.17 million.
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May 6th, 2013
There was some good news and some bad news over the weekend. The good new was Iron Man 3, which lived up to our lofty expectations and became the second biggest opening weekend of all time. This one film earned more than the entire box office earned last weekend, leading to an 136% increase week-over-week to $217 million. The bad news is The Avengers, which did even better when it opened this weekend last year. Year-over-year, 2013 suffered a 16% decline. Meanwhile, year-to-date, 2013 is now behind 2012's pace by 11% at $3.13 billion to $3.52 billion.
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May 2nd, 2013
Summer finally begins. 2013 has been a really bad year so far and after four months, it is 12% or $384 million behind last year's pace. On the one hand, the summer blockbuster season should boost 2013's overall numbers right out of the gate. A lot of people, myself included, think Iron Man 3 will have the second-best opening weekend of all time. On the other hand, the film with the biggest opening weekend of all time was The Avengers, which opened this weekend last year. We can't even look for a counter-programming film or holdovers to help 2013 over the top, as there are no counter-programming films and none of the holdovers are likely to reach $10 million over the weekend. Look for yet another loss in the year-over-year comparison.
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May 2nd, 2013
Iron Man 3 debuted internationally a week ahead of its domestic debut and its was record-breaking. The film earned $198.4 million on 13,633 screens in 45 markets, which is technically more than The Avengers made during its opening weekend. Granted, The Avengers were playing in fewer markets and on fewer screens, while it also had previews that boosted its total opening to $218.2 million, but this is still nothing short of fantastic.
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April 30th, 2013
My enthusiasm for this column is nearly zero because of Iron Man 3. Final international box office numbers are not in, but studio estimates are not only amazing, but they are record-breaking. This will overshadow anything I have to talk about today. At least Pain and Gain had a better than expected opening. On the other hand, The Big Wedding failed to make an impact. Sadly, there was more bad news than good news and the overall box office fell 16% to $92 million. This was 17% lower than the same weekend last year, while the year-to-date numbers got just a little bit weaker. At the moment, 2013 is 12% behind 2012's pace at $2.89 billion to $3.27 billion. Worse still, the year-over-year comparisons are about to run into The Avengers, so unless Iron Man 3 is record-breaking, the year-over-year comparison is going to get worse before it gets better.
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April 28th, 2013
With the Summer movie season effectively starting with the first weekend of May these days, the last weekend of April is the last chance for lesser-budgeted movies to grab some of the spotlight. This year, the movie that can hold its head up highest, at least for a few days, is Pain & Gain, which is projected to open in first place with a respectable $20 million, just $6 million less than its reported production budget. Another film that will post an excellent start is Mud, which will most likely just miss out on the top 10, but will pull in about $2.2 million from just 363 theaters for Roadside Attractions, and end with a theater average of $6,000 -- basically the same as Pain & Gain. Both films will be wiped out by Iron Man 3 when it opens on Thursday. The Summer's first behemoth has already picked up $195.3 million internationally.
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April 25th, 2013
It is the final weekend before the Summer blockbuster season, which means the new releases this weekend are not prime releases. Pain and Gain at least has a shot at first place. Most think The Big Wedding won't crack $10 million during the weekend. The only good news is that last year was also a bad week at the box office. The biggest new release was The Pirates! Band of Misfits, which had to settle for second place with just $11.14 million, while Think Like a Man remained in first place with $17.60 million. I think 2013's one-two-punch will top 2012's one-two punch. However, last year had better depth and 2013 will again lose in the year-over-year comparison.
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April 25th, 2013
After getting pushed back into third place last weekend, G.I. Joe: Retaliation returned to first place this weekend with $40.0 million on 13,616 screens in 62 markets for totals of $211.7 million internationally and $322.9 million worldwide. Of its weekend haul, $33.14 million was earned in China. That's really close to what it earned during its domestic opening weekend. Granted, it did open on a Thursday and that likely diluted its weekend number, while the Chinese results are for the full week, but this is still an impressive result.
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April 22nd, 2013
The overall box office was in line with expectations, more or less, which is unfortunately bad news, as expectations were low. Oblivion easily won the weekend, but the overall box office still fell 5.7% from last weekend to $110 million. Worse still, this is 19% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2013 has pulled in $2.77 billion, which is 11% lower than 2012's pace. 2013 is already $350 million behind 2012 and even with Iron Man 3 looming large, I don't see how 2013 is going to turn things around any time soon.
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April 18th, 2013
It is no secret that 2013 has been a bad year at the box office so far. There's only one film debuting wide this week, Oblivion, which should benefit from the lack of competition this weekend. (Although we are already seeing plenty of hype for Iron Man 3, which could hurt this film's chance at the box office.) There are also several films opening in more than 100 theaters: Filly Brown, Home Run, and The Lords of Salem. There's a chance one of them will be a better than expected hit and reach the top ten; it's a slim chance, but a chance. Finally, The Place Beyond the Pines is expanding to an additional 1,000 theaters and should climb higher in the top ten. Last year, there were three wide releases led by Think Like a Man. That film was a bigger than expected hit, but hopefully Oblivion will have an even better start, but not everyone is positive it will.
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April 17th, 2013
Oblivion started its international run a week before its domestic debut and it did so earning first place in 48 of the 52 markets it opened in. Overall, the film finished first with $60.43 million on 7,637 screens in 52 markets. This is a good start, but not a great start. Fortunately, the studio was only expecting a good start, so they should be happy. Its biggest market was Russia, where it earned $9.30 million on 873 screens, while it also did well in the U.K. with $7.59 million on 520. Its performance in South Korea was not as strong at $3.60 million on 631 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $4.17 million. The film had similar openings in France ($3.82 million on 574 screens) and in Australia ($3.46 million on 353). Spain ($2.95 million on 373); Mexico ($2.79 million on 1,091); and Germany ($2.77 million on 600) produced nearly identical results. Finally, Brazil ($2.09 million on 479) and Italy ($2.04 million on 503) were virtually tied. The film finished in first place in all of these markets, and going by these results, it should open in first place here with $40 million, or at least relatively close to that figure.
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April 15th, 2013
42 earned an easy win at the box office, in part due to a better than expected performance, but also in part due to really weak competition. It did manage 16th place on the list of April openings and 20th best April weekend overall, which is worth celebrating. Scary Movie 5, on the other hand, struggled and only a low production budget will save it or the franchise. The overall box office was down 13% from last week to $117 million; however, that's 2% higher than the same weekend last year, so there's another reason to celebrate. Year-to-date, 2013 is still taking a beating and is off 2012's pace by 11% at $2.62 billion to $2.95 billion.
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April 12th, 2013
It's a two-way race for top spot at the box office this weekend with both Scary Movie 5 and 42. Just last week it looked like Scary Movie 5 would win, but as 42's box office prospects have risen, its have fallen. It is not a sure thing that 42 will win and it should be a close race, but it does have a slight edge. This weekend last year was led by... The Hunger Games ... for the fourth week in a row. It's the last time I have to say that. There were two other new releases that made an impact at the box office: The Three Stooges and The Cabin in the Woods. I think the new releases this year will be better than last year, but The Hunger Games will be the tie-breaker.
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April 11th, 2013
Despite falling 50%, G.I. Joe: Retaliation remained in first place on the international chart with $40.2 million on 9,220 screens in 60 markets for a two-week total of $145.2 million. This is already more than it cost to make, but this decline is troubling. Its biggest market of the weekend was Russia, where it slipped to second place with $2.57 million on 1,267 screens over the weekend for a total of $13.25 million so far.
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April 8th, 2013
Evil Dead led the way at the box office matching predictions (nearly) perfectly. It fell just a little short of the predicted $26 million, and it was the only film in the top five to miss expectations. This helped the overall box office hold up better than expected. Granted, it did fall 8.7% from last weekend to $134 million, but that was 8.8% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2013 is still taking a beating down 11% at $2.47 billion to $2.79 million, but this win is still helpful. If 2013 can string together a few more wins, then the start of summer and The Avengers won't sting quite as bad.
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April 4th, 2013
There are no truly absolutely new releases this weekend. That's not to say there's nothing sort of new to check out. The Evil Dead remake is coming out and its buzz is growing louder than I was expecting. It could be a surprisingly strong release. Also, Jurassic Park 3D re-release is coming out, and while its buzz is much lower, it should still earn as much as it cost to convert into 3D during its opening weekend, or at least come close. This weekend last year, American Reunion debuted with disappointing numbers earning second place while Titanic's 3D re-release did relatively well placing third. I think the combined opening weekend of the two new releases this year will top those from last year. Unfortunately, last year The Hunger Games led the way and that will be enough to keep 2013 behind 2012 in the year-over-year comparison for yet another weekend.
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April 3rd, 2013
G.I. Joe: Retaliation opened in first place with $80.3 million in 54 markets, which is already more than its domestic pace, and it has yet to open in Japan and China. Clearly this film is going to do better internationally than it will domestically, which is a trend we have been seeing for a long time. The film's biggest opening came from Russia with $8.84 million on 1,267 screens. It was also the number one film in South Korea with $5.14 million on 761 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $5.98 million. Germany was close behind with $4.29 million on 461 screens for a total opening of $4.67 million. The film topped the chart in Mexico with $4.13 million on 1,503 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $5.94 million. It also earned first place in Australia ($4.04 million on 412 screens), in France ($3.42 million on 487), and in Brazil ($2.77 million on 492 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $3.08 million). On the other hand, it only managed second place in both the U.K. with $4.25 million on 419 screens and in Spain with $1.71 million on 515 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $2.51 million.
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April 2nd, 2013
The winners of our Duke it Out contest were determined and they are...
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April 1st, 2013
While Easter Monday is a holiday up here in Canada, it's not in the United States and the weekend numbers have arrived. The numbers are good, or close enough to being good that I'm choosing to focus on the positive. G.I. Joe: Retaliation won the race for the top with an opening weekend that was a little better than expected. Meanwhile, Temptation also opened on the high end of expectations. On the other hand, The Host failed to live up to lowered expectations. Overall, the box office rose 6.1% from last week. Granted, it did fall compared to the same weekend last year, but it fell by less than 1% (0.99%) and compared to the year-to-date decline, that's positively glowing. I'm calling it a victory. That's right, 2013 has been so bad so far that I'm willing to call a 1% decline a victory. 2013 is still well behind 2012's pace at $2.27 billion to $2.59 billion, which is a deficit of 12% or nearly $330 million.
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March 29th, 2013
It's Easter long weekend and three films will be battling for box office domination. G.I. Joe: Retaliation is the only one that really has a shot at success. The Host is earning some of the worst reviews for a wide release for the entire year, which is not surprising given the source material. Meanwhile, Temptation is not being screened for critics. It is likely The Croods will be pushed into second place, but should remain strong thanks to the holiday. This weekend last year was led by The Hunger Games with $58 million. There's almost no chance any new release will match that. In fact, there's a chance no film will top last year's second place film, Wrath of the Titans. 2013 is going to get slapped around again.
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March 28th, 2013
The Croods debuted in first place on the international chart with $63.09 million on 11,709 screens in 46 markets, while its global opening was $106.73 million. The film led the way in Russia with $7.82 million on 2,166 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $12.65 million, including previews. It made $8.18 million on 521 screens in the U.K., also including previews, which was enough for an easy first place finish. Another first place victory came in Mexico, where it made $4.51 million on 1,990 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $8.80 million. It also debuted on top of the chart in Germany with $3.63 million on 728 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $4.21 million, while it had nearly identical results in Brazil with $3.35 million on 728 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $4.13 million. The film earned more number one debuts in Italy ($3.90 million on 711) and in Spain ($3.33 million on 763).
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March 27th, 2013
Gimme the Loot led the way on the per theater chart with $21,065 in its lone theater. The overall box office leader, The Croods, was the only other film in the $10,000 club with an average of $10,786.
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March 25th, 2013
As expected, The Croods earned first place, but it didn't dominate as much as many thought it would, because Olympus Has Fallen did better than expected. The overall box office rose 29% from last weekend reaching $139 million. Unfortunately, again as expected, The Hunger Games earned more this weekend last year than the entire box office earned this year. The year-over-year decline was a massive 35%. That's stunning. That usually only happens when there is a misalignment in holidays. Year-to-date, 2013 is now behind 2012 by a 13% margin at $2.06 billion to $2.36 billion. Given the films coming out later this year and the films that came out last year, I just don't see a pathway to victory for 2013.
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March 22nd, 2013
This is one of those weekends where it is really hard to get excited about the box office. That's not to say there's nothing opening that isn't either earning good reviews or has a solid shot at the box office, there are. However, this weekend last year is the weekend The Hunger Games debuted. No film opening this weekend will compete with that. The entire box office this year won't make as much as that one film made last year. 2013 is going to be crushed in the year-over-year comparison and it could be more than a little depressing. As for this year, The Croods should walk away with the number one ranking and might even make more than twice as much as the number two film, which will probably be Olympus Has Fallen. The last new release of the week is Admission, but it might not make the top five. In fact, Spring Breakers is expanding to a little more than 1,000 theaters, but still has a better shot at the top five than Admission has.
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March 15th, 2013
It's a relatively busy weekend next week with three wide releases (it appears InAPPropiate Comedy won't be among them). While there are three wide releases, The Croods should earn more than the other two combined. Because it is has such a clear path to first place, it is the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Croods.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Curandero: Dawn Of The Demon on DVD
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a copy of Duke on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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March 1st, 2013
February is over, and for the most part, we should be very happy it is done and buried. The biggest hit of the month turned out to be Identity Thief, which will cross $100 million shortly. There were also a couple of impressive midlevel hits, like Warm Bodies and Escape from Planet Earth, but for the most part, it was miss after miss. This is bad news for March, which is not only dealing with a slumping 2013 box office, but will be compared with a strong March of 2012. Last March started with The Lorax, which earned more than $200 million. There's a good chance no March release this year will reach this milestone. Last March was also the month The Hunger Games opened, which earned more than $400 million. There's a chance the top three films opening this month won't earn that much combined. 2013 is going to take a beating in the year-over-year comparison and it is already $100 million behind last year's pace.
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