Home Market Releases for April 16th, 2019

April 17th, 2019

We’ve hit the summer doldrums on the home market, but we do have the first major hit of 2019 to talk about. Too bad Glass earned reviews that are so weak. Unfortunately, none of the smaller releases really rise to the level of Pick of the Week. Fans of animation are in luck, as both Dragon Ball Super: Broly and Justice League vs. The Fatal Five are both worth picking up. Bend of the River is a great western. Meanwhile, if you like B-movie cult classics, The Manitou is for you. More...

Home Market Releases for April 2nd, 2019

April 3rd, 2019

Bumblebee is the last of the major winter release to hit the home market and with that we enter the summer doldrums. Fortunately, it is a great movie, even if it can’t live up to its Tomatometer Score, but it is still worth picking up and a contender for Pick of the Week. The only other contender is A Silent Voice on Blu-ray. It wasn’t a really close contest and A Silent Voice truly earns that honor. More...

Friday Estimates: Captain Marvel Sets 2019 Weekend Record in One Day

March 9th, 2019

It took just one day for Captain Marvel to set the record for biggest 2019 weekend, as it dominated the chart with $61.38 million. In fact, it is already in sixth place on the 2019 domestic chart, just behind Alita: Battle Angel. The reviews are on the lower end of the MCU average, but that says more about the high quality of the MCU than the low quality of the film, as its Tomatometer Score is 79% positive. The audience reactions are even more positive; Disney released its CinemaScore and it is a solid A. The film should have no trouble topping our prediction with Disney projecting a $145 million to $155 million weekend. I think they are being a little conservative here, but we will see tomorrow when the weekend estimates show up. More...

Weekend Estimates: Dragons Roar, Holdovers Can’t Soar

February 24th, 2019

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World isn’t quite matching Friday’s projections, but it is still dominating the weekend box office with an estimated $55.53 million Friday through Sunday, and $58.03 million in total if you include the paid previews. This is by far the biggest opening of the year, topping Glass by $15 million and the film is already in the top five for 2019. Internationally, it debuted in first place in Russia with $11.2 million, pushing its weekend haul to $34.7 million, while its international running tally rose to $216.9 million. It is already the biggest worldwide hit of the year, at least it is the biggest Hollywood hit at the global box office. So far that chart is dominated by Chinese films, but that’s common, as Chinese New Year usually results in a few films earning over $100 million at the box office during that week alone. More...

Weekend Wrap-up: 2019 Continues its Slump

February 12th, 2019

The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part missed expectations over the weekend, leading to yet another disappointing overall performance at the box office. Granted, the box office did climb by 55% from last weekend to $112 million. However, last weekend was the worst weekend at the box office in more than a year. Additionally, $112 million is still 20% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2019 has pulled in $1.01 billion; however, this is still 15% lower than last year’s pace and the slowest pace since 2011, in terms of raw dollars. If we go by ticket sales, we have to look all the way back to 1999 to find a slower start to the year. More...

Friday Estimates: New Releases Receive a Cold Welcome

February 9th, 2019

Friday’s box office can best be described as “What happened?” Thursday previews looked promising, but then the Friday numbers arrived and it looks like most of the new releases will miss expectations. This includes The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part, which opened with $8.5 million on Friday, $9.1 million including its paid previews from January. This is well below expectations and puts the film on pace for about $32 million over the weekend. Its reviews are 85% positive, but its early CinemaScore is just A minus, which isn’t particularly good for a family film. Next weekend is a long weekend, so I think it will still get to $100 million domestically, which is more than it cost to make. However, a lot of people thought it had a real shot at $200 million domestically, so this is a real disappointment. More...

International Box Office: Dragon is No Longer Hidden

February 5th, 2019

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World roared into first place on the international chart with $40.8 million in 40 markets for a still early international total of $85.5 million. It was buoyed by a quartet of major market openings, led by Mexico, where it earned first place with $7.56 million in 891 theaters. This is 20% more than the previous film in the franchise opened with in that market. It also opened in first place in the U.K. ($6.95 million in 556 theaters) and in Italy ($3.67 million in 467). On the other hand, it had to settle for third place in South Korea with $3.30 million on 971 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $4.61 million. The film opens in France and Germany this weekend, but doesn’t finish its box office run until August, when it finally opens in Japan. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Super Bowl Wasn’t Super and Neither was the Box Office

February 5th, 2019

The Super Bowl broke records, but not in a good way. (Lowest scoring Super Bowl... ever.) Even so, the Super Bowl still had a devastating effect on the box office leading to arguably the worst Super Bowl weekend box office results since 1999. More on that year later. As expected, Glass earned first place on the weekend box office chart with $9.55 million, but it is never a good sign when the number one film earns less than $10 million. The best / only new release was Miss Bala, which only managed $6.86 million. Overall, the box office fell 27% from last week down to just $72 million. Hopefully this is the worst weekend of the entire year. Worse still, this was 24% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2019 has pulled in $866 million, which is $160 million or 16% lower than 2018’s pace. This is the worst start in terms of raw dollars since 2012 and the worst start in terms of tickets sold since 1999. However, the box office will pick up in March and while I don’t think we’ll match last year’s record pace, we also won’t see a once in a decade slump either. More...

Weekend Estimates: Miss Bala hits the Glass Ceiling

February 3rd, 2019

The weekend estimates have Glass remaining on top of the chart with $9.54 million over the weekend, giving it a running tally of $88.66 million after three weeks of release. It is a lock to get to $100 million domestically, although it will likely be pushed out of the top five before it gets there. Internationally, the film is earning $12.2 million over the weekend for totals of $110.3 million internationally and $199.0 million worldwide. It will soon become the first film released in 2019 to get to $200 million worldwide and it isn’t done yet. More...

Friday Estimates: Friday Falls In Line

February 2nd, 2019

It looks like it will be a weekend to forget. In fact, if Friday is a reliable omen, then this will be the worst Super Bowl weekend at the box office in more than a decade. The only good news is, this was more or less expected. For example, Glass remained in first place with $2.76 million on Friday, putting it on pace for between $9 million on $10 million. Even if it hits the high end, it will still be within a rounding error of expectations. Get ready to read that phrase again a couple of more times this story. More...

Weekend Predictions: Super Bowl Looks to Bowl Over the Competition

January 31st, 2019

It’s Super Bowl weekend, which is historically one of the worst weekends all year long and it doesn’t look like this year will be an exception. Miss Bala is the only true wide release of the week, while They Shall Not Grow Old is expanding wide enough that it could grab a spot in the top five. Glass should remain in top spot, likely with less than $10 million. It’s not going to be a good weekend at the box office. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, Winchester opened with just over $9 million and two holdovers earned $10 million. 2019 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison, but because both weekends were so soft, the gap shouldn’t be too large. More...

International Box Office: Some of the Shine Comes off for Glass

January 31st, 2019

Glass remained in first place with $23.6 million in 55 markets for a two-week total of $89.1 million. It has no new markets this past weekend. In fact, it only has one major market left in its run, China. The film’s biggest market was the U.K. where it remained in first place with $2.55 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $9.06 million. In Russia, t fell 60% to just $2.08 million on 1,381 over the weekend for a two-week total of $8.68 million. The film opened faster than Split did, but it has shorter legs, so it may or may not overtake its predecessor in the end. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: January Ends on a Quiet Note

January 29th, 2019

2019 has been off to a slow start and that certainly didn’t change this past weekend. Glass and the holdovers held up better than expected, but the two new releases, The Kid Who Would Be King and Serenity, both went nowhere. This led to the weekend box office haul falling below the $100 million mark at just $97 million. This is 25% lower than last weekend and 31% lower than the same weekend last year, when Maze Runner: The Death Cure opened with $24.17 million. That’s more than this week’s two releases will earn combined. It’s going to be another bad week for 2019. Year-to-date, 2019 is already down by $100 million; $764 million to $871 million and it’s not going to get better in February. More...

Weekend Estimates: Glass and Others put a Ceiling on New Releases

January 27th, 2019

Glass bounced back after a weak Friday earning an estimated $19.05 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $73.59 million. This is even better than our original prediction. It’s practically guaranteed to get to $100 million domestically, while it is doing a little better internationally. This weekend it pulled in $23.6 million for a two-week total of $89.1 million. The film has yet to open in China and when it does, it will get past $250 million worldwide. More...

Friday Estimates: 2019 Continues its Cold Start

January 26th, 2019

It was a Friday to forget, and it’s going to be another bad weekend at the box office. Glass fell 69% from its opening Friday to $4.98 million this Friday. This is a sharper decline than anticipated, but even so, it should still earn a little more than $16 million over the full weekend, keeping it on pace for $100 million domestically. In other words, while this is a faster decline than predicted, it is not so fast that anyone should panic. More...

Weekend Predictions: It Looks Like it will be a Serene Weekend

January 25th, 2019

The weekend after a long weekend is rarely a good weekend to release a movie and there are only two films attempting this challenge this week. The Kid Who Would Be King is a live-action family film and those rarely do well at the box office. Serenity is... a movie... that... If what I read about the film’s surprise twist is correct, then this film could earn a D or worse from CinemaScore. Glass will remain at the top of the box office, unless something truly strange happens. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, Maze Runner: The Death Cure opened with $24.17 million. That’s more than this week’s two releases will earn combined. It’s going to be another bad week for 2019. More...

Theater Averages: History is Being Written

January 24th, 2019

Who Will Write Our History topped the theater average chart with $13,390 in its lone theater. One could also argue Dragon Ball Super: Broly was the true leader on this chart. Because the film played in a different number of theaters each day over the weekend, it is hard to come up with a real theater average for the weekend. Taking the average of the daily averages gets us $13,643, which would be number one of the weekend. Using the maximum theater count still gets us an average of $7,870, which is still amazing. The only other film in the $10,000 club was the overall box office leader, Glass, with an average of $10,500. More...

International Box Office: Glass Sparkles on Top

January 24th, 2019

Glass opened in first place on the international chart with $48.5 million in 55 markets. Its biggest market was Russia, where it opened with $5.19 million on 1,381 screens. On the other hand, arguably its best market was Mexico, where it earned $4.15 million over the weekend for a total opening of $4.39 million. This is more than double the $2.02 million Split opened with and the record for M. Night Shyamalan in that market. On the down side, the film has practically done its international run and only has China ahead. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Glass Wins, Dragon Ball was Super

January 22nd, 2019

It was a mixed weekend with Glass missing admittedly high expectations, but a lot of the rest of the top five thrived. This includes Dragon Ball Super: Broly, which wasn’t even expected to open in the top five. Overall, the box office rose 8.6% from last weekend to $130 million. This is 5.0% less than the same weekend last year, which means 2019’s losing streak continues. This is more disappointing, as the misalignment in holidays gave 2019 a huge advantage this weekend. Year-to-date, 2019 is below 2018 by $100 million. In fact, 2019 is off to the worst start since 2012 or 2011, depending on if you take ticket price inflation into account. That said, it is still very early in the year and there are several nearly guaranteed monster hits on the way. More...

Weekend Estimates: Glass Cracks, Still Tops Chart

January 20th, 2019

Glass’s box office potential has continued to drop and it is now estimated to earn $40.59 million over the three-day weekend and $47.06 million over four. The three-day opening is barely ahead of Split’s opening weekend and it is certainly lower in terms of tickets sold. Furthermore, Glass’s reviews and B-rating from CinemaScore are clearly already having a negative effect on the film’s legs. That said, the film only cost $20 million to make and while Universal is only handling the domestic run, it will break even just on its domestic numbers. The film’s international run is being handled by Disney, mostly, and they reported $48.5 million in 55 markets. The only market the film hasn’t opened in is China, which is the only international market Disney is not handling the distribution. According to Disney, the film is 13% ahead of Split internationally, but again, given its weaker reviews and its CinemaScore, its legs will likely be short enough that Glass will finish with less than its predecessor. Then again, it cost just $20 million to make and will likely hit $100 million worldwide on Monday, so everyone involved will be happy with this result. More...

Friday Estimates: Glass is Looking a Little More Fragile

January 19th, 2019

It looks like Glass will open on the low end of expectations with $16.0 million on Friday, putting it on pace for $50 million over the four-day weekend. Its reviews are clearly not helping, while the film only managed a B from CinemaScore, which is down from the B plus Split earned. That said, the film only cost $20 million to make and Universal’s share of the opening weekend will be more than that. Unless the film’s advertising budget is unreasonably large, then the movie will break even just on its domestic numbers. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Glass is the New Ceiling for Shyamalan

January 18th, 2019

Glass became M. Night Shyamalan’s fastest starting film with $3.7 million during its previews, topping his previous record of $3 million set by The Last Airbender. More importantly, this is more than the $2 million Split opened with a couple of years ago. This film won’t have as long legs for two reasons. When Split came out, people thought it was an original story and didn’t know it was a stealth sequel to Unbreakable, while Glass is an open sequel and sequels tend to have shorter legs. Also, its reviews are bad with a Tomatometer Score of just 35%. As for its weekend haul, the film needed $4 million during previews in order to have a 50/50 chance at $60 million. $3.7 million means $55 million is more likely. That’s not quite as much as we predicted, but still a good start. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Glass Shatter Franchise Records?

January 17th, 2019

It is MLK day long weekend, the first long weekend of the year. On the one hand, there’s only one new release trying to take advantage of that. On the other hand, that one film is Glass, which is widely expected to be the biggest hit of the month. In fact, it could earn more over the next four days than any other January film earns in total. On a side note, Dragon Ball Super: Broly opened on Wednesday earning $7 million. It won’t earn that much over the weekend, but depending on how many screenings it has in how many theaters over the weekend, it could sneak into the top ten. That would be something amazing for Anime. This weekend last year was the weekend after MLK Day, so the misalignment in holidays should give 2019 its first win of the year. More...

Preview: January

January 1st, 2019

December would have been an excellent month, except it had to be compared to Star Wars: The Last Jedi. The top four movies of this December might not finish with as much as that movie made. That said, the year ended on an overall positive note finishing with a lead of close to $800 million over 2017. Unfortunately, 2019 is going to get off to a slow start. Not only are there very few films opening wide this month, only one of them, Glass, is expected to be a midlevel hit or better. Granted, Glass is expected to earn more than $100 million domestically, which is something no film released last January could do. However, The Last Jedi and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle both had such incredible legs that 2019 will still get off to a slower start, even if it has stronger new releases. More...

Glass Trailer

October 5th, 2018

M. Night Shyamalan thriller starring Bruce Willis, James McAvoy and Samuel L. Jackson opens January 18 ... Full Movie Details. More...