July 22nd, 2014
I think it is fair to say it is a mixed week on the home market. There are four wide releases coming out this week, but all but one struggled at the box office. Worse still, looking down the list of new releases and you quickly run into filler. Fortunately, there are a few films that are contenders for Pick of the Week, including Blue Ruin and Next Goal Wins. However, the winner is Ginger Snaps, which is coming out on a Special Edition Blu-ray.
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May 15th, 2014
Godzilla is the second of four May releases that at least have a realistic shot at reaching $200 million domestically. The first of these films, The Amazing Spider-Man 2 won't match original expectations, but it is still on pace to reach $200 million. It is very unlikely Godzilla will open as fast as The Amazing Spider-Man 2 did, but even coming close would be a huge boost to the box office. Million Dollar Arm should have a respectable opening as counter-programming and on the high end it could land in third place. Meanwhile, Neighbors is aiming for $100 million and while it won't get there this weekend, it will get there soon enough. This weekend last year, Star Trek Into Darkness earned first place with $70.17 million over the weekend, which is a figure I think Godzilla will top. If it does, and the holdovers hold on well, then 2014 might end its mini-losing streak earlier than I thought it would.
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May 13th, 2014
Neighbors got off to a much faster start than expected, as did many of the top five films. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 fell more than 60% during its sophomore stint, but that was expected, at least it was inline with my expectations. Overall, the box office still fell from last weekend, but by 11% to $137 million, which isn't as bad as it could have been. It was down 14% from the same weekend last year, but that's a huge improvement from what it was last weekend, so in a small way, it is a bit of a victory. Year-to-date, 2014 has pulled in $3.45 billion, putting it 5.4% ahead of 2013's pace. That's down from its peak, but even if 2014 loses next weekend and the weekend after that, 2014 should still remain ahead of last year's pace.
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May 11th, 2014
Comedy triumphs at the box office this weekend, with Neighbors posting an impressive $51 million, according to Universal’s Sunday morning estimate. That’s the 16th-biggest opening ever for a comedy film (depending somewhat on one’s definition of what constitutes a comedy), and comparable to the debut of Ted (which made $54 million in 2012). It’s also easily Seth Rogen’s best weekend, ahead of the $33.5 million debut for The Green Hornet, and Zac Efron’s best, beating High School Musical: Senior Year.
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May 8th, 2014
It could be an interesting weekend at the box office as The Amazing Spider-Man 2 is expected to fall far enough that Neighbors could win the box office race. That certainly would be a boost for the new release's box office chances. Earning first place does provide a lot of free publicity. The other two wide releases coming out this week are not expected to be major players at the box office. I've heard some buzz that Mom's Night Out could be a sleeper hit. On the other hand, Legends of Oz: Dorothy's Return might not open above the Mendoza Line. This weekend last year, Iron Man 3 led the way with $72.53 million, which is more than all three wide releases will make. In fact, last year's second place film, The Great Gatsby earning $50.09 million, which might be more than all three wide releases make this weekend. On the other hand, depth will be better this time around and that should mitigate the situation a little bit.
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May 6th, 2014
The summer blockbuster season has begun and it started on a mixed note. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 easily earned first place with more than $90 million. An opening of more than $90 million isn't a bad number, but it is the lowest opening three-day weekend for a Friday debut in the franchise. Worse still, the overall box office was just $153 million, which is substantially lower than last year's number one film, Iron Man 3, opened with. $153 million is 32% higher than last weekend, but the start of summer should be bigger than that. It is also 30% lower than the same weekend last year. You usually only see a decline that sharp when there's a misalignment in a holiday weekend. Granted, 2014 is still ahead of 2013 by a large margin (8.6% or $3.26 billion to $3.01 billion) so we don't have to worry about 2014 losing that lead any time soon. This is just not a great way to start the summer blockbuster season.
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May 4th, 2014
The modern tradition is that first weekend in May starts the Summer season with a super-hero action movie. And Hollywood being the industry that lets no tradition go before it's beaten it to death, this year we start Summer, on the first weekend in May, with the release of The Amazing Spider-Man 2. Now, the most amazing fact about the Spider-Man franchise is probably that every movie has done worse at the domestic box office than the one before it, even without adjusting for inflation. This is another tradition that looks like it might continue, with Spider-Man 2 opening with $92 million—without doubt a very good debut, but one that points towards a final box office around $250 million, or perhaps a shade higher. With The Amazing Spider-Man having made $262 million in 2012, a fourth straight decline for the franchise looks like a 50-50 bet right now.
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May 2nd, 2014
It is the official opening of the summer blockbuster season and The Amazing Spider-Man 2 hopes to get the summer off to a fast start. On the positive side, it is the latest installment in one of the most popular comic book franchises. On the negative side, its reviews are below expectations and below the overall positive level. There are no other new releases to pick up the slack should this film fail to live up to lofty expectations at the box office, although The Other Woman should still do well in a counter-programming role. Last year Iron Man 3 dominated the way with $174.14 million during the opening weekend. There's no way The Amazing Spider-Man 2 will match that this weekend. There is a small chance The Amazing Spider-Man 2 won't make that in total.
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April 29th, 2014
April ended with a new film on top, The Other Woman, which finally broke Captain America: The Winter Soldier's hold on the box office chart. It was a surprisingly strong hit earning $24.76 million, but the other new releases were not as strong. Brick Mansions only managed fifth place, while The Quiet Ones missed the Mendoza Line. The overall box office was $115 million, which was 13% lower than last weekend. More importantly, this is 25% more than the same weekend last year. 2014 added to its lead over 2013, which now stands at $257 million, or 9.2%. Its running tally is $3.05 billion and summer is just about to start.
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April 24th, 2014
The final weekend of April ends with three wide releases. With The Amazing Spider-Man 2 looming large on the horizon, it should come has no surprise that the three wide releases this weekend and not expected to be huge hits. The Other Woman has a shot at first place, but Captain America: The Winter Soldier might block it. On the other hand, I'm fairly sure Brick Mansions and The Quiet Ones can't both fit into the top five. Last year, April ended with Pain and Gain earning first place with just over $20 million. That is likely more than the first place film this year will earn. However, this year has better depth than last year, so I think 2014 will still come out ahead.
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April 22nd, 2014
Captain America: The Winter Soldier won the weekend box office race with a better than expected result and this helped it reach $200 million. Likewise, Heaven is for Real was surprisingly strong earning second place over the weekend, despite opening on Wednesday. Unfortunately, none of the other new releases lived up to expectations and the overall box office fell 5% to $133 million. This was still 20% higher than the same weekend last year, boosting 2014's lead over 2013 to 8% at $2.92 billion to $2.70 billion.
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April 20th, 2014
Moviegoers are celebrating Easter weekend by turning out in big numbers to see Heaven is for Real. The Christian-themed movie will be the biggest opener this weekend, with a very respectable $21.5 million projected Friday-to-Sunday and a theater average of $8,895. That puts it at nearly twice box office take of the widest opener this weekend, Transcendence, which is set for a very disappointing $11.15 million debut. Also opening this weekend, and similarly posting mediocre numbers is A Haunted House 2, with a projected $9.1 million from 2,310 theaters. But, with a production budget reported at $4 million, compared to $100 million for Transcendence, the horror spoof shouldn't have a hard time earning money.
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April 17th, 2014
It's a busy weekend with four wide releases opening this week, but only one of them, Transcendence, has a real shot at opening in first place, but its reviews will likely prevent that. Heaven is for Real is aiming for a midlevel hit, to match its midlevel reviews. A Haunted House 2 hopes to match its predecessor, but it is unlikely to get there. Finally there's Bears, which has the best reviews, but the weakest box office potential. Despite the number of new releases, top spot will likely be a battle between Captain America: The Winter Soldier and Rio 2. Family films tend to have better legs, so that could give Rio 2 the edge, but movies also tend to drop the most during their sophomore weekend. (That is unless their theater count collapses shortly afterward.) Last year, Oblivion opened with $37.05 million, which is a figure no film will match this year. On the other hand, 42 was the only other film to earn more than $10 million last weekend. 2014 will lose on the top of the chart, but it also has better depth than 2013 did, so that should help it come out on top in the end.
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April 10th, 2014
It's a busy week at the box office next week including Bears, A Haunted House, Heaven is for Real, and Transcendence. Only Transcendence has a real shot at first place at the box office. As such, it is the only real choice for the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Transcendence.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Power Rangers: Megaforce: The Great Dragon Spirit on DVD.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Power Rangers: Megaforce: The Great Dragon Spirit on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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April 1st, 2014
March was stronger than expected when compared to 2013 with four films earning $100 million or more, led by Divergent. (Not all of them have gotten there yet, but they are certain to reach that milestone before they are done their box office runs.) It wasn't a blow-out victory, on the other hand, as a few weekends the ticket sales were lower in 2014 than they were during the same weekend in 2013. April looks really strong with Captain America: The Winter Soldier leading the way. This film should top $200 million over the weekend, while it isn't the only film that should crack the century mark, as Rio 2 is also on track for $100 million. This is great news, as no film last April reached $100 million. Granted, 42 came close and Oblivion wasn't far behind, but The Winter Soldier should earn more than those two films earned combined giving 2014 a comfortable lead over 2013 over the full month.
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