September 19th, 2013
New releases were even worse on the July 7th, 2013 edition of the Blu-ray sales chart than they were on the DVD sales chart. Leading the way was Despicable Me with 88,000 units / $1.23 million for the week and 2.35 million units / $58.37 million after more than two-and-a-half years of release. This puts it just outside of the top 20 on the All-Time Blu-ray Chart, and it has already made it there as of the writing of this column.
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August 21st, 2013
New releases were rather sparse on the June 23rd, 2013 edition of the DVD sales chart. Granted, Jack the Giant Slayer did earn first place, but it was the only new release in the top five. It sold 319,000 units and generated $4.79 million in revenue, which is weak given the film's production budget.
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July 29th, 2013
New releases earned the top three spots on the DVD sales chart, but there was only one other to earn a spot in the top 30. Oz the Great and Powerful earned first place with 549,000 units / $9.97 million, which is a good result, given the time of year.
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July 3rd, 2013
The top five of the Blu-ray sales chart this week were nearly all new releases, including the first place Blu-ray, A Good Day Die Hard. This film sold 316,000 units and generated $5.86 million for an opening week Blu-ray share of 58%. That's an excellent Blu-ray share, but the film missed expectations pretty much everywhere else. Meanwhile, the Legacy Box Set placed eighth with 17,000 units / $667,000.
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July 3rd, 2013
New releases grabbed the top six spots on the DVD sales chart this week, but mainly due to a lack of competition, as there were no monster hits. These new releases were led by Identity Thief with 362,000 units / $6.25 million. It performed surprisingly well in theaters, so this result is pure gravy.
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June 4th, 2013
It's a typical summer week on the home market with a good mix of first run releases and some summer TV shows coming out on DVD and Blu-ray. There are certainly some releases that are worth picking up, but nothing that will set sell records. Overall, it is solid, but unspectacular. There were a few contenders for Pick of the Week. Breaking Bad: Season Five on DVD or Blu-ray, but it is a split-season release and I'm not happy with the price-per-minute. By comparons, The Newsroom: Season One, which comes out next week, is nearly twice as long but only 25% more money. Brooklyn Castle is another contender; however, while its DVD is certainly worth picking up, I'm not sure it will have wide enough appeal. In the end, I went with Warm Bodies. It may seem like a strange choice, but it is still one of the best wide releases of the year and the DVD and the Blu-ray are loaded with extras.
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April 11th, 2013
Despite falling 50%, G.I. Joe: Retaliation remained in first place on the international chart with $40.2 million on 9,220 screens in 60 markets for a two-week total of $145.2 million. This is already more than it cost to make, but this decline is troubling. Its biggest market of the weekend was Russia, where it slipped to second place with $2.57 million on 1,267 screens over the weekend for a total of $13.25 million so far.
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April 3rd, 2013
G.I. Joe: Retaliation opened in first place with $80.3 million in 54 markets, which is already more than its domestic pace, and it has yet to open in Japan and China. Clearly this film is going to do better internationally than it will domestically, which is a trend we have been seeing for a long time. The film's biggest opening came from Russia with $8.84 million on 1,267 screens. It was also the number one film in South Korea with $5.14 million on 761 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $5.98 million. Germany was close behind with $4.29 million on 461 screens for a total opening of $4.67 million. The film topped the chart in Mexico with $4.13 million on 1,503 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $5.94 million. It also earned first place in Australia ($4.04 million on 412 screens), in France ($3.42 million on 487), and in Brazil ($2.77 million on 492 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $3.08 million). On the other hand, it only managed second place in both the U.K. with $4.25 million on 419 screens and in Spain with $1.71 million on 515 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $2.51 million.
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March 28th, 2013
The Croods debuted in first place on the international chart with $63.09 million on 11,709 screens in 46 markets, while its global opening was $106.73 million. The film led the way in Russia with $7.82 million on 2,166 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $12.65 million, including previews. It made $8.18 million on 521 screens in the U.K., also including previews, which was enough for an easy first place finish. Another first place victory came in Mexico, where it made $4.51 million on 1,990 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $8.80 million. It also debuted on top of the chart in Germany with $3.63 million on 728 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $4.21 million, while it had nearly identical results in Brazil with $3.35 million on 728 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $4.13 million. The film earned more number one debuts in Italy ($3.90 million on 711) and in Spain ($3.33 million on 763).
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March 18th, 2013
As expected, Oz the Great and Powerful easily won the box office race this weekend matching predictions nearly perfectly. The Call was a surprise hit, but unfortunately, the other wide release for the week, The Incredible Burt Wonderstone, failed to find an audience. The overall box office fell 23% from last weekend to $107 million. Its decline from last year was much smaller at just 2.9%, but with 2013 so far behind 2012, any loss is still troubling. We really need to close the gap, which is now at 12% at $2.14 billion to $1.88 billion. Next weekend, it is just going to get worse.
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March 15th, 2013
There are two wide releases opening this week, The Incredible Burt Wonderstone and The Call, but nearly everyone thinks Oz the Great and Powerful will repeat on top of the chart. Last year, 21 Jump Street opened with $36 million. Oz should match that, but 2012 still had better depth, so 2013 could be in a little bit of trouble on the year-over-year comparison.
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March 12th, 2013
Oz the Great and Powerful matched predictions perfectly with close to $80 million. The rest of the box office was well back, but there was still reason to celebrate, as the overall box office grew 28% from last weekend to $140 million. More importantly, it rose 5.4% from last year. Even so, 2013 is still way behind 2012's pace at $1.72 billion to $1.97 billion. I don't think 2013 can recover from this deficit, especially with 2012's biggest hits yet to come.
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March 7th, 2013
There are two wide releases opening this week, but their relative box office potentials could hardly be more different. Oz the Great and Powerful is opening in nearly 4,000 theaters and could make more than the rest of the box office combined. Dead Man Down, on the other hand, is opening in barely more than 2,000 theaters and on the low end of expectations, might not make the top five. The main competition for Oz is The Lorax, which opened last year with just over $70 million, while it made close to $40 million this weekend last year. If Oz fails to match that lower number, then the box office is in world of trouble. Let's be honest, the box office is already in a world of trouble, but if Oz bombs, then it is as good as dead.
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March 4th, 2013
The box office was mostly disappointing over the weekend. Jack the Giant Slayer was able to match expectations, more or less, but this was bad news because its expectations were really low compared to its production budget. The other two wide releases, 21 and Over and The Last Exorcism Part II both struggled and failed to live up to the low end of expectations. There was a fourth film that was supposed to open wide, but in the end, Phantom opened in barely more than 1,000 theaters and didn't even come close to the Mendoza Line. The overall box office did grow by 6.0% from last weekend to $109 million. However, that was 35% lower than the same weekend last year. This is several layers of disaster. Year-to-date, 2013 has pulled in $1.55 billion, but that is 7.9% lower than 2012's pace. I don't see it getting better going forward and for the most part, the rest of the month is really bad in the year-over-year comparison.
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March 1st, 2013
There are four wide releases this week, but only one of them, Jack the Giant Slayer, has a real shot at first place. I think 21 and Over and The Last Exorcism Part II should be in a close race for second place, but not everyone agrees. As for Phantom, most think it won't even reach the top ten. As for this weekend last year, The Lorax led the way with just over $70 million. There's no real chance any film will earn that much this weekend. In fact, there's a small chance Jack the Giant Slayer won't match Project X's opening of $21 million. It's going to be a bad weekend at the box office.
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February 25th, 2013
The Oscars proved to be too much competition for the new releases as neither Snitch nor Dark Skies were able to find much success. Indeed, it was Identity Thief that rose to top spot in its third week of release. Most films in the top five were able to at least match expectations, but the overall box office still plummeted 27% from last weekend to just $103 million. The comparison to last year was not quite as bad, but it was still down by a stunning 23%. Ouch. 2013 is now behind 2012 by a full $100 million or 6.7% at $1.41 billion to $1.51 billion.
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February 24th, 2013
The box office crown for Oscar weekend will be claimed by Identity Thief, according to studio estimates released on Sunday morning, even though the comedy will fall by a relatively large 41% from last weekend. So its win is in large part due to the low-key new releases: Snitch will be second with $13 million in a modest 2,511 theaters and Dark Skies is headed for 6th place with $8.85 million from 2,313 theaters. Neither new film has particularly low per theater averages ($5,177 and $3,826 respectively), so their so-so debuts are as much a factor of their smallish opening theater counts as lack of demand.
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February 21st, 2013
There are just two wide releases coming out this week, Snitch and Dark Skies. Most analysts think Snitch is the stronger of the two films, but most also think Identity Thief will return to top spot. Looking at all of the evidence, it certainly seems that way. Unless one of the new releases is a truly big surprise, it looks like we won't keep pace with last year again this weekend. 2013 needed to get off to a really fast start, because there's no film that's going to match The Hunger Games, and once we are dealing with that film in the year-over-year comparison, 2013 might be sunk for good.
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February 20th, 2013
The Valentine's Day / President's Day five-day weekend wasn't as lucrative as many had hoped, at least not at the top, which is really bad news for a year that is not off to a great start. A Good Day to Die Hard won the race, but barely, with Identity Thief coming in a very close second over the weekend. Other new releases, like Safe Haven and Escape From Planet Earth did better than expected, while Beautiful Creatures crashed. The overall box office did rise by 36% to $141 million over the three-day period, but the holiday explains that growth. Compare to last year, 2013 actually failed to match last President's Day by 9.3% over the three-day period and with $168 million including Monday, missed the four-day period by 13%. Year-to-date, 2013 is behind 2012 by 6.7% at $1.28 billion to $1.37 billion. I am officially concerned.
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February 17th, 2013
President's Day weekend will end with a win and a solid opening for A Good Day to Die Hard, based on studio estimates released on Sunday, but it'll be a close run thing. Safe Haven was a predictable winner on Valentine's Day but has faded fast and is projected to earn $21.4 million Friday-Sunday for third place. Second place is going to be claimed by Identity Thief with about $23.4 million over three days, during which time it has steadily caught up with Die Hard, so much so that it has a good chance of winning the day on Monday. The Bruce Willis actioner will, however, get to claim the title for the weekend with a respectable $25 million for three days and close to $40 million in total by the end of Monday.
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February 14th, 2013
It's Valentine's Day today, while Monday is President's Day, so the box office has an unofficial five-day weekend. There's not much of a mystery regarding which of the four wide releases will top the chart this weekend, as nearly everyone expects A Good Day to Die Hard will come out on top. Maybe Safe Haven will earn first place tonight, but very few expect that will last after Valentine's day. Despite earning better than expected reviews, Beautiful Creatures isn't expected to compete for the top spot, or even second place. So far there are no reviews for Escape From Planet Earth and it might be stuck in fifth place. Because of a misalignment in Valentine's Day, we should do better this weekend compared to the same weekend last year, which is good news, as 2013 is in a mini-slump.
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February 13th, 2013
The winners of our A Real Steal contest were determined and they are...
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February 13th, 2013
The Gatekeepers remained in first place in the per theater chart with an average of $14,024 in three theaters. The only other film to top $10,000 on the per theater chart was Identity Thief with an average of $11,000, which is amazing for a wide release at this time of year.
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February 12th, 2013
It was a great week at the box office, all things considered, with Identity Thief crushing expectations and all of the holdovers matching theirs. Only Side Effects struggled at the box office. This helped the overall box office climb 18% from last week to $104 million. This was 47% lower than the same weekend last year; however, this weekend last year was Valentine's weekend, which is one of the biggest non-holiday weekends of the year, so the comparison isn't fair. As I predicted last week, the lead 2013 had built up has evaporated and it is now 1.2% lower than 2012 at $1.05 billion to $1.06 billion. Since Valentine's Day is this Thursday, we should make up the difference quickly.
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February 10th, 2013
Universal has a winner on its hands this weekend, as Identity Thief is set to make a very impressive $36.5 million or so, according to their Sunday tracking, and that in spite of the big storm in the Northeast (reportedly causing a 10% at the box office) and mediocre reviews. The performance is perhaps helped by the surfeit of Oscar-hopefuls and action movies in theaters recently, and is clearly also a feather in the cap for stars Jason Bateman and Melissa McCarthy. The weekend's other opener, Side Effects is set for a more modest $10 million, which isn't exactly DOA, but is at best on life support. Perhaps good word of mouth will help it hang on in theaters for a while.
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February 7th, 2013
There are two wide releases this week, Identity Thief and Side Effects. One of these films is earning amazing reviews and one of them is the overwhelming favorite to win the box office race. Identity Thief looks like it is going to finish in first place and it's only real competition is from last year. Last year the box office was led by a one-two punch of The Vow and Safe House, both of which earned more than $40 million. No movie is going to do that this year, so 2013 is going to lose big this week.
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February 1st, 2013
Next week there are two wide releases, Side Effects and Identity Thief. Side Effects will likely be the better film, but Identity Thief will likely have the faster opening, and since we are looking at the box office numbers, it is the choice for target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Identity Thief.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), regardless if they go over or not, will win a prize pack from Femme Fatales. This includes a DVD of the first season, a signed script, a signed mini-poster, and limited edition trading cards.
Meanwhile, there will be five additional entrants chosen and each of them will win a copy of Femme Fatales: Season One on DVD.
Because of the nature of the show (it is a Cinemax show, so there's more nudity than most cable shows) we have some family friendly alternative prizes.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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February 1st, 2013
For the most part, January was a really good month and 2013 got off to a really good start. I'm not so sure about February, on the other hand. There's only one film that has a statistically significant shot at $100 million, A Good Day to Die Hard, but I'm a little concerned that it won't live up to expectations. The franchise has been around a long time and it is possible that the target audience has either moved on or are too young to remember when these films were huge at the box office. The film I'm most looking forward to seeing is Warm Bodies, which is earning amazing early reviews (the keyword there is "early"), but it is too high-concept to be a major hit. Last February, there were a couple of films that topped $100 million, plus a few other midlevel hits. I would like to think that would also be the case this year, but I have to be more cautious than that. The evidence points to a weak month ahead, for the most part.
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