February 28th, 2016
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It’s Oscar day and, if all goes to plan, I will be live-blogging the ceremony tonight. Here is the list of nominees marked according to predictions from our readers, and my personal wishes. Nominees in Bold are the ones predicted to win by our readers (we’ll have a full rundown of the predictions at noon, after the contest ends). If I am predicting a different film, those are in Italics. Meanwhile, the nominees I want to win, but don’t think will win, are Underlined. There are a few categories where the film I really think deserves the award was not even nominated, plus a few I don’t have a real opinion on.
If you haven’t done so already, it’s not too late to enter our Oscar competition, and win all Best Picture nominees on Blu-ray or DVD.
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February 27th, 2016
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With our annual Oscar Prediction contest closing at noon tomorrow, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try to figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This morning, we get to the final category, Best Picture. The film I think should win, Inside Out, wasn't even nominated. Of the movies on this list, I think The Martian is the best. If you look at the odds makers, it isn’t even in the top three. I’m going to be doubly disappointed tomorrow.
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February 26th, 2016
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With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. If Leonardo DiCaprio doesn't win, there will be rioting in the streets.
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February 20th, 2016
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. The Best Adapted Screenplay category is about as competitive as the Best Original Screenplay, which is to say it isn't competitive at all.
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January 20th, 2016
It was a slow week with only a handful of significant releases. However, that was good news for me, because it allowed me review the screener that arrived late. That screener was for The Martian, which was as good as I had hoped it was and it is the Pick of the Week. It is not the only new release that was in contention for that title. Both Adventure Time - Stakes! (DVD) and All Things Must Pass (DVD or Blu-ray) were in the running.
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January 19th, 2016
The Martian opened in early October and became a huge box office and critical success. The film became the biggest hit in Ridley Scott's career and recently picked up seven Oscar nominations. Will I love it as much as the average critic did? Or will I be in the minority here?
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January 15th, 2016
The Oscar nominations were announced at 5:30 am Pacific time. Nothing is good that early in the morning. Worse still, this was a terrible year for snubs, especially when it comes to diversity of the nominees. The voters for the Oscars are 94% white and 77% male... but that's still more diverse than the list of nominees. The Revenant led the way with 12 nominations and it is expected to win a few of those, while it is a serious contender in most of the categories it was nominated in.
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January 14th, 2016
The Directors Guild of America spread out the nominations, which I always felt hurt the buzz. There are ten categories of awards, but only three of which pertain to theatrical releases. There are very few surprises across these three categories, so the Oscar nominations today shouldn't be full of surprises either.
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January 12th, 2016
It is a busy week for first run releases with four of them on this week's list. Of these, The Martian is the biggest and the best. It would have been the Pick of the Week except for two things. One, the screener is late. Two, David Bowie passed away over the weekend. He died after an 18-month battle with cancer and just two days after his last album came out. This is the the most poignant Rock'n'Roll death since Freddie Mercury and it seems fitting to give Blackstar the title of Pick of the Week.
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January 11th, 2016
The Golden Globes were handed out on Sunday evening. There were a few minor surprises and some infuriating results. On the other hand, no one film truly dominated, with The Revenant leading the way with just three wins. Only two other movies earned more than one win, The Martian and Steve Jobs.
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January 9th, 2016
The BAFTA nominations were announced and you can read them on their site... in alphabetical order. Alphabetical order is very useful in most circumstances, but not here. On the other hand, the nominees within each category are not presented in alphabetical order. ... Are the BAFTAs trolling us? As for the actual nominees, the big winners here are Bridge of Spies and Carol, both of which earned nine nominations. For Carol, this is just another impressive score, but this was a pleasant surprise for Bridge of Spies.
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January 6th, 2016
The Writers Guild of America nominees were announced and there are only a few surprises here. Additionally, one of these three races seems too close to call at this point.
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December 10th, 2015
The Golden Globes nominations were announced this morning and we are already beginning to see a trend for this year's Awards Season. For the most part, the same films are coming up over and over again. Carol led the way with five awards, while there was a three-way tie for second place with The Big Short, The Revenant and Steve Jobs each picking up four.
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December 9th, 2015
It was a milestone weekend for The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2, as it crossed the $500 million mark worldwide. Over the weekend, the film pulled in $32.4 million in 93 markets for totals of $296.8 million internationally and $524.2 million worldwide. Its biggest market of the weekend was Germany, where it pulled in $4.77 million on 1,127 screens for a three-week total of $30.53 million. On the other hand, its biggest market overall has been the U.K., where it has made $35.21 million, including $3.38 million in 539 theaters this past weekend. There are rumors that Lionsgate are working on prequels for this franchise. Not sure that's a good idea.
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December 2nd, 2015
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 remained in first place with $62.0 million in 93 markets for totals of $242.4 million internationally and $440.9 million worldwide. The film's only major market opening came from Spain where it had to settle for second place with a total opening of $4.52 million on 449 screens. Its biggest market overall is the U.K. where it pulled in $6.78 million in 579 theaters over the weekend for a total of $28.88 million after two weeks of release. At this pace, the film will finish with between $600 million and $700 million, which is amazing, but below average for the Hunger Games franchise.
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November 19th, 2015
Spectre again dominated the international box office earning $152.6 million in 92 markets for totals of $413.1 million internationally and $542.1 million worldwide. $500 million worldwide is enough to save face, but the film will need reach at least $600 million worldwide to have a shot at breaking even any time soon. It will likely need $700 million to $800 million to keep the studio happy. Fortunately, that seems very likely. The past weekend, the film opened in first place in China with $48.55 million. It also remained in top spot in the U.K. with $11.96 million in 617 theaters over the weekend for a three-week total of $118.39 million. It is now the fourth biggest hit in that market, while it has a shot at overtaking Skyfall for first place. It will need help from the holidays to get there. Will the movie still be in theaters come New Year's Day? Maybe.
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November 17th, 2015
There's not much in the way of good news to talk about, which is something that is becoming sadly common. Two of the three new releases missed expectations and expectations were low to begin with. Love the Coopers led the new releases, but it is hardly what you would call a box office hit. Even calling it a middling hit is overstating things. The 33 barely managed a spot in the top five and will quickly leave theaters. My All-American missed the Mendoza Line* by a mile and missed the top ten in the process. This meant Spectre and The Peanuts Movie remained on top of the charts, but they could only help the box office avoid becoming a disaster. As it is, the overall box office fell 33% from last weekend to just $108 million. This was 23% less than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2015's lead over 2015 took a real hit and its down to 3.9% at $9.06 billion to $8.72 billion. However, as we've seen recently, the overall box office is weaker than the these numbers look, as we've seen few major hits and many, many bombs.
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November 11th, 2015
Last week the box office bounced back in an impressive fashion. However, this week it will very likely slump back down again. There are only two truly wide releases coming out this week, The 33 and Love the Coopers, neither of which are expected to be hits. In fact, there's a good chance neither of them will top $10 million over the weekend. This will leave Spectre and The Peanuts Movie on top of the charts once again, while we will have a one or two other holdovers in the top five, depending on how well the new wide releases match low expectations. This weekend last year Dumb and Dumber To opened with $36.11 million. This is more than either new release will earn this weekend, or in total. This might be more than both new releases will finish with combined. Unless the holdovers hold on really well, 2015 will lose in the year-over-year comparison, but it should be close.
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November 10th, 2015
As expected, Spectre remained in first pulling in $117.8 million in 73 markets for totals of $223.1 million internationally and $293.1 million worldwide. This is almost as much as it cost to make, so if it can double this figure, it should be able to break even eventually. The film's biggest market was the U.K. where it added $19.99 million on 696 screens over the weekend for a total of $98.82 million. It has already overtaken Jurassic World for the biggest hit of the year in the U.K. and should have no trouble rocketing into the top five on the all-time chart there. The film's biggest opening was in Germany, where it pulled in $18.06 million on 1,460 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $20.26 million. This is about 15% lower than Skyfall's opening in that market. Likewise, the film wasn't as strong during its debut in Russia earning $6.29 million on 2,112 screens, compared to $8.27 million on 1,254 screens for Skyfall. At this pace, Spectre will definitely fail to match Skyfall, but anything close to $800 million will be enough to break even, perhaps before it reaches the home market. It all depends on how much its global advertising campaign cost.
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November 9th, 2015
It was a good weekend at the box office, but not a great weekend. Both Spectre and The Peanuts Movie opened well enough to be considered hits, but didn't quite reach the high marks I had expected. Call it irrational exuberance. Even though Spectre didn't break the record for the Bond franchise, it still did almost as well as all of the box office did last weekend. Additionally, The Peanuts Movie opened with more than $40 million, which is a great start, while its target audience should help its legs. The overall box office was $162 million, which is 115% more than last weekend. It was also 3.0% more than the same weekend last week, so the slump we've been in is officially over. Year-to-date, 2015 is now ahead of 2014 by a 4.9% margin at $8.89 billion to $8.48 billion. A $415 million lead with less than two months to go seems really safe, especially with a few more potential monster hits on the way.
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November 5th, 2015
I've been working at The Numbers for 13 years. The past two weekends were worst back-to-back weekends that I can recall and the numbers back that up. So thank goodness October is over and November has officially begun and with that, the Holiday Box Office season has begun. There are two potential monster hits opening wide this week: Spectre and The Peanuts Movie. Both are the latest installments of long running franchises. Spectre is the 26th Bond movie (not all of which are part of the official Bond franchise). The Peanuts Movie is based on a comic strip that started officially in the 1950s and has been turned into countless TV cartoons and a handful of TV specials over the years, but it hasn't had a theatrical release for decades. These two films should dominate the market and combined they might earn twice as much as all of the films last weekend earned. There should be huge growth compared to last year, when Big Hero 6 and Interstellar earned just over $100 million combined. We've had a really bad couple of weeks, but things should really turn around this weekend.
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November 5th, 2015
Spectre opened in first place with $80.4 million during its seven-day opening weekend. That doesn't seem like a huge amount, especially considering some of the opening weekends we've seen on the international stage this year. However, there is a mitigating factor. It was only playing in six markets. This includes the U.K., where the film broke records with $62.82 million in 651 theaters. This is equivalent to a $300 million opening week here, which would be the record for a seven-day box office here. We shouldn't get too ahead of ourselves, as Bond films have a natural affinity for that market. It does mean Spectre has a real shot at a $100 million opening weekend here.
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November 2nd, 2015
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Most people expected the box office to be really weak this past weekend, but I don't think anyone anticipated this. How bad was this past weekend? All three new releases missed the Mendoza line* and there were no new releases in the top five. The overall box office was just $75 million, which was the lowest for the year and the fourth worst weekend in the past decade. This represents a 28% drop-off from last week and a 21% drop-off from the same weekend last year. 2015's overall lead over 2014 shrunk from 5.2% to 4.7%. The overall lead fell by $40 million at $8.69 billion to $8.31 billion. This is reason to panic, or it would be if Spectre wasn't opening on Friday. The film is breaking records in the U.K. and should be an explosive hit here. Hopefully it will do well enough that we can pretend the past two weeks never happened.
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November 1st, 2015
Halloween is a horror show for new releases, with none of them able to break a $2,000 theater average and The Martian enjoying a fourth weekend at the top of the chart. The sci-fi movie will earn about $11.4 million this weekend, for a total of $182.8 million, per Fox’s Sunday morning projection—down 28% from last weekend. The adult-skewing audience for the film meant it wasn’t badly affected by Halloween on Saturday, with its daily gross up 32% from Friday. In comparison, Goosebumps was up just 9% on Saturday, which leaves it too much to do to steal top spot. Sony projects the family adventure-horror film will end the weekend with $10.25 million over three days and $57.1 million in total. The new wide releases, meanwhile, will barely earn $10 million between them.
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October 31st, 2015
Because Halloween is a dead zone for the box office when it lands during the weekend, it has a major effect on the box office. Therefore, it is important for box office analysts to compare weekends where the holiday lands on the same day. This is a problem, because the last time Halloween landed on a Saturday was 2009. The only film to open wide that weekend was Michael Jackson's This is It, which is in no way similar to any of the movies that opened wide this weekend. The previous similar weekend was in 1998, but while Vampires is a closer match to Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse, the box office has changed too much to compare the films. We're flying blind this weekend. Fortunately, even flying blind, it is easy to make one declaration: All three wide releases bombed.
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October 29th, 2015
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Halloween is a dead zone for the box office, for the most part, and this year it lands on Saturday. Unless we are dealing with a horror film, it's going to be a bad weekend. There are two truly wide openings this weekend, Burnt and Our Brand is Crisis, neither of which are horror films. There is also one semi-wide release, Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse, which is a horror movie, but the buzz is so quiet I don't think it will matter. All three movies are earning bad reviews and it looks like the top three this weekend will be the same as they were last weekend. (There's a chance Goosebumps gets a big enough Halloween boost to climb into first place.) This weekend last year, there was only one new release in the top ten, Nightcrawler, which earned second place with just over $10 million. That's better than any one of the new releases will do this year; however, there's better depth this year, so I think 2015 will come out on top on the year-over-year comparison.
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October 28th, 2015
The Martian returned to first place with $30.0 million in 73 markets for totals of $218.8 million internationally and $385.0 million worldwide. The film's only major market opening was in France where it earned second place with $6.81 million on 560 screens. It also remained in first place in South Korea with $3.99 million on 731 screens over the weekend for a three-week total of $28.43 million. I don't know if it has broken even yet, but it is very close to getting there.
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October 26th, 2015
Most of the new releases were not expected to do well at the box office. ... Almost no one saw this coming. We had some near-record bombs this weekend and even the best of the new releases were terrible. This left The Martian in first place; in fact, the top three spots and four of the top five were held by holdovers. The best new release, The Last Witch Hunter, barely cracked the $10 million mark. The overall box office fell 14% from last weekend to $105 million. This was also 9.5% lower than the same weekend last year. Midweek numbers were better this year than last year, so the year-over-year actually improved and 2015 now has a 5.2% lead over 2014 at $8.60 billion to $8.18 billion.
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October 25th, 2015
Dismal is about the politest word that can be applied to the box office performance of new releases this weekend. None of the five films new in wide release managed to make the top three on the chart, and two of them didn’t even crack the top ten. That leaves The Martian and Goosebumps to battle it out for first place, and a fourth-week decline of just 25% for The Martian looks virtually certain to give it the win. Fox projects it will make $15.9 million for a total by the end of the weekend of $166 million or so. Its performance to date falls neatly between that of Interstellar and Gravity, which puts the sci-fi adventure on course for a final domestic box office of $230 million (see full comps here).
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October 24th, 2015
Where to start? There are so many new releases to talk about and none of them did well. Some did so poorly that talking about them seems mean. So, let’s start by saying that Friday’s box office chart was led by The Martian, while Goosebumps has a shot at repeating on top of the chart, with each film earning about $14 million to $15 million. Meanwhile, Bridge of Spies should earn third place over the weekend with between $11 million and $12 million.
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October 22nd, 2015
The box office prediction contests for the past few weeks have had a horror / "horror" theme. That is to say, two people won horror movies and the third won movies that were so bad it is scary they exist. There are four new releases this weekend and they all epitomize the latter. Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension has a review embargo, which is never a good sign, while the other three wide releases are all earning less than 20% positive reviews. Does that mean there's nothing worth seeing this week? Nope. Fortunately, Steve Jobs is expanding wide and should earn first place at the box office. It is the only film on this week's list with a shot at $20 million. This weekend last year, Ouija nearly reached $20 million and five other films earned $10 million. I don't think we will match that this year. It could be close and any gain or loss in the year-over-year comparison should be in single digits, so there's no reason to be overly concerned.
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October 22nd, 2015
Ant-Man made a triumphant return to the international chart with a first place, $43.5 million run in 3 markets for totals of $275.9 million internationally and $454.7 million worldwide. Nearly all of this weekend haul came from China, where the film opened in first place with $42.77 million. (Some are reporting it came in second place to Goodbye Mr. Loser, but they are comparing the film's weekly total to Ant-Man's opening weekend.) Depending on how much money the film cost to advertise worldwide, it might have broken even already. If not, it will get there very early in its home market run.
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October 20th, 2015
It is hard to get excited about the weekend box office results, as the top four films all missed predictions. (Granted, Bridge of Spies came within a rounding error of expectations.) Goosebumps did well for a live-action family film, but still not great. The Martian fell faster than anticipated, but it was Crimson Peak that was the biggest disappointment. Overall, the box office rose 2.5% from last weekend to $121 million. However, this was 7.6% lower than the same weekend last year. Had every film in the top five matched expectations, then this gap would have been reduced to just a percent or two. Despite this, 2015 is still ahead of 2014 by more than $400 million at $8.46 billion to $8.05 billion. It would take a few more weeks of year-over-year declines before I would be concerned.
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October 18th, 2015
A slightly-softer-than-expected (but still good) opening for Goosebumps will be enough to take the film to the top of the box office chart this weekend, according to studio projections released on Sunday morning. Sony expects the family horror adventure to come in with $23.5 million on opening weekend, which is a solid enough start, and sets the film up for a good run, helped by strong reviews and Halloween coming up in a couple of weeks. The Martian will land in second with a projected $21.5 million as of this morning, a slightly steeper-than-expected 42% decline from last weekend, and a total to date around $144 million. In general, we’re looking at quite a few steep drops from last weekend thanks to an unfavorable comparison with the Columbus Day long weekend and a batch of new releases.
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October 17th, 2015
It looks like it will be a very interesting weekend, as Goosebumps and The Martian appear to be in a close race for first place. Goosebumps led the way on Friday with $7.35 million. This is 40% more than Pan’s opening day last weekend. Add in the film’s better reviews and its family-friendly target audience and it should have a solid internal multiplier, perhaps in the vacinity of Alexander and the Blah, Blah, Blah. That puts Goosebumps on track for a $25 million opening. That’s a little lower than I would have liked and the film will need solid legs and a reasonable international run to break even. I wouldn’t bet against it breaking even, but I don't think it will be turned into a franchise.
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October 15th, 2015
We are getting closer to Halloween and there are two scary movies opening wide this weekend. Goosebumps is a live-action family film and as we saw with Pan, those are rarely big hits. On the other hand, this film is earning great reviews and cost about 60% less to make, so even if it just matches Pan's opening, it will still have a shot at profitability. Crimson Peak is an old-fashioned Haunted House horror film, similar to The Woman in Black, but with a $55 million production budget. That might be too much to recoup. Finally there's Bridge of Spies, a Cold War era Spy Thriller. Its reviews are the best for this week, but its target audience isn't known for rushing out to see a movie opening weekend. This weekend last year, there were five films with more than $10 million, but only one with more than $20 million. This year, we should have the same number of $10 million movies, but at least two $20 million movies and perhaps even a $30 million movie. I think 2015 has the edge in the year-over-year comparison, but unless the new releases are bigger hits than most anticipate, it could be close.
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October 14th, 2015
The Martian remained in first place with $58.1 million in 75 markets for totals of $119.0 million internationally and $227.7 million worldwide. $200 million worldwide was the minimum needed for the studio to save face. If it can get to $300 million worldwide, then we start talking about profitability. I don't see a way it won't get to $300 million, perhaps as early as this time next week, while $500 million worldwide is a reasonable goal to aim for. Its biggest new market of the weekend was South Korea where it earned first place with $11.09 million on 1,132 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $13.00 million. It also dominated the chart in Russia with $8.18 million on 2,246 screens. On the other hand, it only managed second place in Germany with $3.85 million on 676 screens. As far as holdovers go, the film remained in first place in the U.K. with $5.96 million in 582 theaters over the weekend for a two-week total of $20.44 million. This is about on par with its run here, which bodes well for its worldwide total.
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October 13th, 2015
There was some great news at the box office this weekend, as both The Martian and Hotel Transylvania 2 reached the century mark. On the other hand, Pan bombed performing even worse than expected. I don't think there's really any controversy in saying it bombed, as the $150 million movie opened with less than Alexander and the Terrible Horrible No Good Very Bad Day made last year. The overall depth was also weak, which led to the box office falling 21% from last week and 20% from last year. 2015 is still way ahead of 2014, $8.30 billion to $7.87 billion, and it would take a serious collapse for that lead to evaporate before the end of the year.
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October 11th, 2015
As expected, The Martian will easily win a second straight weekend at the box office, with Fox predicting the film will fall just 32% from its opening to $37 million, for a running total of $108.7 million. That keeps it tracking just a little behind Gravity, which fell 23% in its second weekend, and ahead of Interstellar (down 40%, second time around) and Prometheus (59% down). Comparing all four movies, The Martian looks set to move easily past $200 million, and perhaps settle around $225 million, unless it tops that number thanks to a re-release around Oscar time.
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October 10th, 2015
Pan cost $150 million to make. It is very rare for a live-action family film to cost this much and the reason for that is very simple: these movies almost never become monster hits. Pan will certainly not be the exception, as it pulled in just $5.2 million on Friday. By comparison, Alexander and the Terrible Horrible No Good Very Bad Day had an opening day of $5.30 million. It also earned overall positive reviews, while Pan will go down as one of the worst major releases of the year. Even if we pretend the two films will have the same internal multiplier, Pan will only open with $18 million. $16 million seems more likely given its reviews. $16 million on a $150 million budget. This is terrible news for Warner Bros. And it is not like they've had a great year so far.
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October 9th, 2015
The only wide release of the week is Pan, which is being described as critically panned, because entertainment writers have a pathological need to use puns. I hate puns and I'm still guilty of this. Despite being the only new release, Pan isn't expected to open in first place, or even second place. The Martian is expected to repeat on top, while Hotel Transylvania 2 should have another strong hold remaining in second place. This weekend last year was in some ways the polar opposite, as there were four new releases in the top ten, plus another that opened in eleventh place. However, the result was the same, as Gone Girl remained in first place. The Martian should top Gone Girl's performance, while Hotel Transylvania 2 and Pan should match Dracula Untold and Alexander and the Terrible Horrible No Good Very Bad Day. However, after that, 2014's depth seems too strong and 2015 will likely lose in the year-over-year comparison. That's fine, as 2015's lead is huge and there are still a few (nearly) guaranteed monster hits left to open this year.
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October 8th, 2015
The Martian opened in first place with $45.2 million on 9,299 screens in 50 markets. This includes a first place, 10.01 million opening on 582 theaters in the U.K. This was the biggest opening for both the director and the star. The film had a similarly strong opening in Australia earning first place with $4.28 million on 582 screens. It also earned first place in Hong Kong ($2.26 million on 70 screens) and Taiwan ($1.68 million on 137 screens). It only managed second place in Italy with $2.53 million on 464 screens and in Mexico with $2.9 million on 1,757, while it debuted in third place in Brazil with $1.82 million on 507. Overall, the film it doing about as well internationally as it did here, which is good news for Fox.
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October 8th, 2015
The winners of our Rescue Mission contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Martian opening weekend were...
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October 8th, 2015
Only two films were in the $10,000 club this weekend. He Named Me Malala led the way with an average of $15,221 in four theaters, which is very strong for a documentary. The film's reviews are only good, but the appeal here is Malala Yousafzai and I don't think moviegoers are too upset that the film is a little shallow. The Martian was close behind with an average of $14,176.
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October 6th, 2015
It was an interesting weekend as The Martian was in a tight race with Gravity for Biggest October Weekend. It didn't quite set the record, but it came close enough to be the big story all weekend. Hotel Transylvania 2 held on better than expected, which helped the overall box office grow 8.3% from last week to $149 million. More importantly, the top two films this year were well ahead of the top two films last year, Gone Girl and Annabelle. This helped the overall box office grow 1.8% from the same weekend last year. Most people were not expecting that. Year-to-date, 2015 now has a 6.0% lead over 2014 at $8.14 billion to $7.68 billion. It would take a relatively serious collapse for 2015 to not come out on top at the end of the year.
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October 4th, 2015
Just a week after Hotel Transylvania 2 broke September’s weekend record, The Martian has a shot at setting a new mark for October, although it’s going to be a challenge. Fox is projecting the sci-fi thriller will make $55 million this weekend, just a fraction behind Gravity’s $55.8 million debut two years ago this weekend. There’s just a sliver of a chance that The Martian will take the record, but it would take a great performance on Sunday.
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October 3rd, 2015
The Martian earned $2.5 million during its Thursday midnight showings and Fox is estimating a total of $18 million on Friday to easily win at the box office. By comparison, Gravity opened with $1.4 million during its midnight showings and $17.48 million on opening day. Gravity went on to earn $55.79 million opening weekend. Should The Martian have the same internal multiplier, it would pull in $57 million over the weekend, which is just ahead of the record for Biggest October Weekend. However, The Martian’s higher midnight showings and lower Friday-proper numbers likely means it will be a little more front-loaded, and it should pull in $53 million over the weekend. This is almost exactly what was predicted on Friday and it also means Gravity’s October record is likely safe for at least one more year.
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October 2nd, 2015
The Martian is the only true wide release this week, but it might not be the only new release in the top ten. The Sci-fi adventure film is earning award-worthy reviews and is also being praised for being an inspiring portrayal of science on the big screen. Sicario is expanding its theater count to 2,500, which should push it into the top five. The Walk opened in IMAX screens on Wednesday, but it missed the top ten place and it will likely fall. This weekend last year, Gone Girl and Annabelle both opened with between $37 million and $38 million. The Martian will open with more than either of those films opened with. However, it won't open with more than both of them combined. We will need good growth from Sicario and solid legs from Hotel Transylvania 2 to match last year's result.
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October 1st, 2015
September ended on a record note with the debut of Hotel Transylvania 2. Additionally, there was great depth and 2015's lead over 2014 grew to nearly $500 million. How do things look going forward? The month starts out with The Martian, which should have no trouble becoming the biggest hit of the month and might even top $200 million. On the other hand, no other film is expected to get to $100 million. There's only one or two that will even come close. Fortunately, last October was very similar with one $100 million hit, Gone Girl, while two other films came close, Annabelle and Fury. It looks like it will be up to the depth films from both years to determine which year comes out on top.
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September 29th, 2015
The winners of our Family Fun contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Hotel Transylvania 2 opening weekend were...
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September 25th, 2015
The first weekend of October has only one wide release, The Martian. It should easily dominate the box office and could be one of the best wide releases for the rest of the year. As such, it is the only real choice for the target film for this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Martian.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
There is a difference this time. Two people will earn Frankenprizes consisting of two horror movies. The other winner will earn a Frankprize consisting of two "horror" movies, that is to say movies so bad that it will fill you with horror.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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