November 20th, 2013
There are some good releases this week, but it is also a shallow week. If you look at Amazon.com's list of new releases, by the third or fourth page, you will find more filler than releases worth talking about. On the other hand, there are a number of late releases that finally arrived and I was able to get done. There are a number of contenders for Pick of the Week this week, including Doctor Who Story 29: The Tenth Planet, which is a must have for all Whovians. Kinky Boots is a very fun movie and you can't beat the price of the DVD. On the other hand, the Star Trek: The Next Generation Blu-ray releases for Season Five and Unification are expensive, but worth it for fans. In the end, I went with The World's End on Blu-ray Combo Pack for Pick of the Week.
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November 17th, 2013
Planes started out as a direct-to-DVD sequel, but sometime during production, someone decided the script was good enough to be made into a theatrical release. This isn't the first time this has happened. Return to Neverland took the same route. That film wasn't loved by critics, but it did well for its production budget. Planes was huge at the box office, pulling in more than $200 million worldwide, which is much more than a lot of people thought it would pull in. Did it do so well because it was also better than expected? Or did it thrive because it was the last animated film of the summer, so it had no competition?
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November 14th, 2013
Thor: The Dark World debuted last weekend, but thanks to a number of new markets this weekend, it was even more dominant on the international chart. It pulled in $94 million in 66 markets, which lifts its running tally to $240.9 million internationally and $326.6 million worldwide. Its biggest market was China where it made $20.98 million. In comparison, Thor made about $15 million there, in total. This is incredible growth. It grew in Russia rising to $11.44 million on 1,500 screens for a total of $24.04 million after two weeks of release. The original Thor finished with $268.30 million internationally, which is a figure Thor 2 will smash through by the weekend. It might make more internationally than the first film made worldwide and it could help Disney break the all-time single year global box office record, currently at $3.791 billion, which it earned in 2010.
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October 30th, 2013
Gravity earned first place for the fourth week with $37.7 million on 7,340 screens in 53 markets for a total of $164.4 million internationally and $364.0 million worldwide. This weekend it debuted in first place in France with a very impressive $10.76 million on 398 screens. It also remained in first place in South Korea with $5.29 million on 531 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $15.55 million. It also repeated in top spot in Mexico with $3.79 million on 1,563 screens over the weekend for a total of $12.04 million after two. The film will likely pull in close to $100 million in just these holdovers, plus it has yet to open in the U.K., Japan and China, so it could make another $100 million in those three markets as well.
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October 16th, 2013
Gravity remained in first place with a nearly identical result as last weekend. It was up a barely noticeable amount to $28.5 million on 5,785 screens in 38 markets for a two-week total of $68.3 million internationally. This hold is even more impressive, as its only major market debut came in Brazil, where it opened in second place with $1.67 million on 219 screens. On the other hand, it was down just 9% in Australia with $3.03 million on 471 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $8.29 million. It fell a little more in Germany down 17% to $3.04 million on 614 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $8.12 million. In both of those markets, it remained in first place. It fell faster in Russia down 48% landing in second place with $3.88 million on 1,155 million screens over the weekend for a total of $14.12 million after two weeks of release.
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October 3rd, 2013
Young Detective Dee: Rise of the Sea Dragon opened in China with $17.0 million earning first place in that market and on the overall international chart. The original earned a limited release here and was a great movie, so I'm hoping this film will also get a release here. I'm certainly looking forward to seeing it.
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September 19th, 2013
The Smurfs 2 rose to first place on the international chart with $17.52 million on 12,965 screens in 70 markets for totals of $219.56 million internationally and $288.51 million worldwide. It opened in first place in China with $9.93 million on 8,053 screens. It also opened in first place in Australia with $1.89 million on 462 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $2.04 million.
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September 13th, 2013
Elysium remained in first place with $21.31 million on 10,731 screens in 52 markets for totals of $127.46 million internationally and $212.57 million worldwide. Of that, $11.75 million came from 6,253 screens in China, which was enough for first place there. Not this weekend, but next weekend, the film opens in Japan, Brazil, Mexico, and other markets, so it should be a player on the international market for a few weeks, but it will need help on the home market to break even.
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September 10th, 2013
We have good news and bad news. Riddick only managed to reach the low end of expectations, while the overall box office was down nearly $40 million, or 32%, from last week. On the positive side, Instructions Not Included finished on the high end of expectations, while the overall box office was $85 million, which was 26% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2013 has earned $7.54 billion, or 1.2% higher than last year's pace.
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September 6th, 2013
The weekend after the Labor Day long weekend is historically the worst weekend of the year. Because of that, it should come as no surprise that there is only one wide release this weekend. After all, studios don't want to release a film if the weekend is practically cursed. However, that one film is Riddick, which is actually earning good buzz. It might crack $30 million over the weekend. Might. It would be a surprise, but you can't completely dismiss the possibility. The only other semi-new film to talk about is Instructions Not Included, which is doubling its theater count. However, it's a niche market film and these tend to have short legs, as the target audience rushes out to see them immediately. Fortunately, it doesn't really matter, because last year was a disaster. As long as Riddick tops $10 million, 2013 will come out ahead.
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September 4th, 2013
The Labor Day long weekend is over and pre-weekend predictions were spot on, at least when it came to the top-two films. One Direction: This is Us opened in first place on Friday, but by Sunday had fallen to fifth place, allowing Lee Daniels' The Butler to remain on top, if you go by the four-day weekend. There were a few surprises this weekend, including Instructions Not Included. I hoped it would do well, but I never imaged it would do this well. Overall the weekend was strong at $125 million over the three-day weekend, which was 14% more than last weekend. Over four days, the total box office was $160 million. This was 21% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2013 holds a 0.9% lead over 2012 at 7.44 billion to $7.37 billion.
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August 29th, 2013
It's the Labor Day long weekend, which is widely regarded as the weakest long weekend of the year. This year there are two wide releases, One Direction: This is Us and Getaway, looking to grab the final box office dollars before Summer officially ends. (One could argue it unofficially ended weeks ago.) One Direction should have no trouble finding an audience among young girls, but there's a chance the more mature audience Lee Daniels' The Butler has been attracting will be large enough to withstand that push. Getaway, on the other hand, is just hoping to get one positive review before the weekend starts. There was a third film that was supposed to open wide this week, Closed Circuit, but it is now opening in 800 or so theaters, so it won't be a factor. Last year, there were two wide releases, both of which topped $10 million during the three-day weekend. The new releases this year won't match that, but there's better depth this time around.
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August 26th, 2013
Summer is rapidly ending and you can tell by the box office numbers of the wide releases this weekend. The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones had the biggest opening of the three wide releases, but not really the best opening. The World's End earned a little less over the three-day weekend, but it also reportedly cost just $20 million to make, so it will earn a profit, unlike City of Bones. The final new release was You're Next, which couldn't live up to its reviews, but again, it is rumored to have cost very little to make, perhaps less than $1 million, so it should break even sooner rather than later. With the weakness in the new releases, Lee Daniels' The Butler had no trouble repeating in first place, but the overall box office did fall by 21% from last weekend to $110 million. This was still better than last year by 12%, which extends 2013's winning streak to five weeks. Year-to-date, 2013 has pulled in $7.18 billion leading 2012's pace of $6.97 billion by 3%.
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August 23rd, 2013
There are three wide releases coming out this week, well, two and a half really. The World's End is only opening in 1,548 theaters, but it is also earning by far the best reviews. It is probably still too much of a niche market to take top spot. You're Next is earning great reviews and horror films do have a history of doing well at this time of year. The final wide release of the week is The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones. Not only did it open on Wednesday, but its reviews are terrible. Last year there were three wide releases, all of them bombed. Combined they made less than $14 million. The new releases should have no trouble topping last year's new releases, while the holdovers are also stronger.
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August 20th, 2013
It turns out Lee Daniels' The Butler was the strongest of the four wide releases. In fact, given its reviews and its target demographic, it could hit $100 million. Kick-Ass 2 really stumbled, which is not that surprising given its reviews, but a lot of analysts failed to predict this result. Jobs missed the top five by a wide degree, while Paranoia missed the top ten. The overall box office fell 12% to $139 million. This is higher than the same weekend last year, but by a barely perceivable 0.2%. Year-to-date, 2013 is ahead of 2012, but by a tiny 0.25% margin. Still, compared to where we were earlier in the year, this is a massive victory.
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August 16th, 2013
Summer blockbuster season has officially ended, but there are four films hoping to grab a share of the limited box office dollars left. Kick-Ass 2 is the clear favorite among analysts, but it is being beat up by critics. Lee Daniels' The Butler is the only other film with a shot at first place. It is earning good reviews, but not great reviews, and I think it will be remembered as busted Oscar bait. Neither Jobs nor Paranoia have a real shot at the top five, nor are they earning critical praise. There were also four films that opened wide this weekend last year. All four of them earned $10 million or more, led by The Expendables II with $28.59, while there were three holdovers with $10 million or more. There's a slim chance Kick-Ass 2 will match The Expendables II, but I wouldn't bet on it. Plus the depth this year is weaker that last year's depth was. That's bad news for the year-over-year comparison.
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August 13th, 2013
There were four films that opened wide last week and while none of them were monster hits, three of the four of them were solid openings. Elysium opened in first place, but landed on the lower end of expectations. We're the Millers was a bit of a surprise hit, earning more over five days than it cost to make. Disney's Planes had the best opening for an animated film in August. There's not a lot of competition for that record. Finally there was Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters, which will cost the studio a fortune. With four new releases taking the top four spots, it should be no surprise that the overall box office was strong. In fact, it rose 16% from last weekend to $159 million. No film was able to match last year's winner, The Bourne Legacy, but we had a lot better depth this time around. This helped 2013 win the year-over-year comparison by 12%. Meanwhile, 2013 has completed the comeback and now has a 3.6% lead over 2012 at $6.85 billion to $6.61 billion.
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August 11th, 2013
The waning days of the Summer season are seeing a glut of films as distributors try to find one last hit. Four films opened in wide release this weekend and, even though they played to quite different demographics, they will ultimately all fall somewhat short of expectations (or, more accurately, hopes). Topping the pack will be Elysium, which is expected to earn $30.5 million by Sunday evening -- a solid enough performance, but not enough to make a serious dent in its $120 million production budget. Good legs and an impressive international run will be needed for this one to turn a profit. We're the Millers will land in second place for the weekend with about $26.5 million, but will arguably have had a better start, with $38 million earned in total since it opened on Wednesday (not to mention a much lower production cost). Planes will be third with $22.5 million or so, which is OK for a film that was originally destined for a direct-to-video release. The real bomb of the weekend is Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters, with $14.6 million expected Friday to Sunday and $23.5 million in total over five days.
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August 9th, 2013
The Dog Days of summer have begun; in fact, they began last weekend. There are four films trying to find an audience that is distracted with other concerns like back-to-school, or the last family outing before back-to-school, etc. Will any of the films find an audience? Elysium has the best chance. It is earning the best reviews of the week. We're the Millers opened on Wednesday and did quite well, earning first place, but it's far from a monster hit. Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters cost $90 million to make, but barely topped The Smurfs 2's Wednesday opening from last week. That's not a good sign. Finally there's Disney's Planes, a film that started production as a direct-to-DVD film and the reviews reflect that. The Bourne Legacy opened this week last year with $38.14 million, which is something Elysium might match.
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August 6th, 2013
Unless the box office bounces back next weekend, it will be safe to say summer ended over the weekend. 2 Guns did finish in first place, but it underperformed, while The Smurfs 2 only managed third place. Overall, the box office plummeted 20% from last weekend to $138 million. On the other hand, this is still better than last year, up 12%, thanks to much better depth. 2012 was led by The Dark Knight Rises, which no movie this year could match, but there were only three films to top $10 million last year compared to five films this year.
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August 2nd, 2013
There are a number of new releases opening wide next week, but only Elysium is seen by a majority of analysts as being a box office player. Some think Disney's Planes will be a hit, but I don't think that will be the case. Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters will likely be an expensive miss. Meanwhile, We're the Millers could be a sleeper hit. Elysium will likely open in first place and as such, it is the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Elysium.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Ice Road Truckers: Season 6 on DVD.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a copy of Mountain Men: Season 1 on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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August 1st, 2013
July was hit and miss at the box office, mostly miss. In fact, only two films really topped expectations, Despicable Me 2 and The Conjuring. That said, 2013 has nearly closed the gap with 2012 and it won't take much to pull ahead. Looking forward to August, we find that it is a very busy month with 16 or so films opening wide over five weeks. Of course, the closer you get to September, the more likely these films will struggle to find an audience, and more often than not, there are simply too many films opening wide to suspect they will all find an audience. On the high end, 2 Guns could be the biggest hit of the month with just over $100 million. The Smurfs 2 and Elysium could pull in $100 million. All three of those films are opening in the first two weeks of the month. After that, most of the new releases will be lucky if they reach $50 million during their theatrical runs. By comparison, last August was not as busy with 14 wide releases. Of those, only one film, The Bourne Legacy, topped $100 million, although a couple came reasonably close. Hopefully we will have more $100 million hits this time around and 2013 will be able to complete the comeback.
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