April 17th, 2018
It’s a slow week on the home market, which is common for this time of year. The biggest release of the week, The Post, is also one of the best and one of only three contenders for Pick of the Week. In the end, I went with MST3K: Season 11 and awarded it the honor.
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April 3rd, 2018
It’s a short week for one reason: Star Wars: The Last Jedi, which came out last week, but it is still scaring away top-notch releases. There are only a couple of first-run releases coming out this week, Father Figures and Insidious: The Last Key. However, there are also a few films in the main section that wouldn’t even be included in the secondary releases on a normal week. There are a trio of Pick of the Week contenders, including Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, but that’s a late review. The best of this week’s releases are Jane and My Hero Academia Season Two, Volume One. Both are absolutely worth picking up, but in the end, I went with My Hero Academia.
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March 6th, 2018
Black Panther was again the top film on the theater average chart earning $16,236. The only other film in the $10,000 club was Death House with $10,295 in its lone theater.
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March 4th, 2018
It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. We will announce the winners and have our reactions as they happen, while keeping track of how our readers did in predicting the outcomes.
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March 4th, 2018
It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. Before that, let’s take a last look at the nominations with a few annotations. Nominees in Italics are those that have received the most votes from our readers so far in our Oscar contest (which is open to new entries until noon, Pacific, today—enter now!). Bold films are those films I think will win. Meanwhile, those that are Underlined are those I want to win. Not all categories have underlined nominees, because not all categories have someone I’m cheering for, or because there are two nominees I couldn’t pick between. For example, I will be happy no matter who wins Best Supporting Actress. One last note: The contest is still going and the leading for Best Picture Switched from The Shape of Water to Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri to tied over the time I was writing this story. This is the closest I’ve ever seen it. Guessing the best picture correctly will go a long way to winning.
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March 1st, 2018
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. We end with the biggest award of the night: Best Picture. It is actually competitive this year with two films in a tight race, while there is a long shot with a shot.
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February 22nd, 2018
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try to figure out who the favorites are and who should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we have been looking at the four acting categories, ending with Best Lead Actress. In this category, there is an overwhelming favorite. ... Most of the categories we will talk about next week are much more competitive.
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February 21st, 2018
Black Panther not only earned the best theater average of the weekend, it earned the best theater average of the year so far with an average of $50,250. This tops the previous record of $47,167 set by The Post on the first weekend of the year. The previous best average for a film that opened in 2018 was $13,783, set by Padmaavat. The only other film in the $10,000 club this past weekend was The Party, which earned an average of $12,465 in three theaters.
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February 13th, 2018
Golden Exits earned first place with $11,719 in its lone theater. The only other film in the $10,000 club was Fifty Shades Freed with an average of $10,234.
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February 6th, 2018
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle earned first place for the fourth time over the weekend with $10.93 million, while Maze Runner: The Death Cure was a close second with $10.47 million. This left Winchester in third place with $9.31 million, but it could have been much worse. Overall, the weekend fell 33% from last weekend with $95 million. More importantly, is 3.6% lower than the same weekend last year. 2018 lost its small lead over 2017 before the weekend and it is now 0.8% or $8 million below last year’s pace at $1.04 billion to $1.05 billion. It’s going to get a lot worse next weekend, due to the misalignment in holidays, but I think 2018 will quickly recover after that.
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February 1st, 2018
It’s Super Bowl weekend and the only film attempting to compete with the sporting event is Winchester. Unfortunately, its nearly noon on Thursday and there are still no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. This means Maze Runner: The Death Cure and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle will be in a race for first place over the weekend, while Winchester will have to settle for third place. This weekend last year, Rings was the biggest new release of the week. It wasn’t a hit, but it was bigger than any film this week will be, preventing 2018 from winning the year-over-year competition.
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January 31st, 2018
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Padmaavat was the only film to hit the $10,000 club earning an average of $13,179 in 324 theaters.
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January 30th, 2018
Maze Runner: The Death Cure beat expectations by a little bit with $24.17 million. In fact, every film in the top five this this weekend, except one, topped expectations, including the other new release, Hostiles. This helped the overall box office rise 2.6% from last week. It did fall 0.8% from last year, but 2018 is still ahead of 2017 by $18 million or 2.1% at $908 million to $890 million.
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January 28th, 2018
The delayed final film in the Maze Runner trilogy, The Death Cure, will open with $23.5 million, per Fox’s Sunday morning estimate. With another $82 million overseas so far, the film will have earned a little over $100 million by the end of the weekend, and its early international pace looks a little better than The Scorch Trials, which amassed $78 million over its first two weekends back in 2015. (Scorch Trials had a more staggered release, making a direct comparison difficult.)
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January 25th, 2018
Maze Runner: The Death Cure, is the final installment of the Maze Runner trilogy and is the only wide release of the week. It is guaranteed first place, unless something horrible happens, but there’s almost no chance it will live up to the other two installments. Hostiles is expanding wide, but I don’t have a lot of faith in the film’s box office chances. It is almost the exact wrong time to expand. This weekend last year, Split had a surprisingly good hold earning $25 million, while four other films earned more than $10 million at the box office. That’s not going to happen this year, so 2018 will lose in the year-over-year comparison. It shouldn’t be a complete blowout, on the other hand.
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January 23rd, 2018
The Oscar nominations were announced starting at just after 5 am Pacific time. They do this every year and no one has been able to adequately explain why to me. At least there were some interesting results this year. The Shape of Water led the way with 13 nominations, which is one below the current record and nearly as many as the next two films combined. Overall, there were seventeen films that earned two or more nominations.
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January 23rd, 2018
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No film reached the $10,000 club. In fact, Hostiles was the best film with an average of $6,666 in 49 theaters. Mary And The Witch’s Flower looks like it had a better weekend; however, its numbers are complicated. The film earned $1.17 million during its Thursday special showings in 573 theaters for an average of $2,037. Then it earned $330,000 in 161 theaters over the weekend in regular screenings for an average of $2,050. This shows that Anime fans are not numerous, but they are very eager for special screenings.
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January 23rd, 2018
Nearly every film we talked about in our predictions beat expectations over the weekend. This includes Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, which earned first place with $19.51 million. All three wide releases did better than expected, with 12 Strong leading the way with $15.82 million. The overall box office still fell 15% from last weekend to $135 million. A 15% drop-off for a post-holiday weekend isn’t bad. Compared to this weekend last year, 2018 was down by 7.0%, which isn’t good, but it could have been much worse. Year-to-date, 2018 still has a small lead of 2.9% or $20 million at $725 million to $704 million. Granted, it is still way too early for this to matter, but an early lead means you won’t need to fight back late in the year like we did last year.
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January 18th, 2018
The post-holiday weekend is rarely a good week to release a movie and none of the three new releases are expected to be box office successes. 12 Strong is the biggest release and it is also earning the best reviews, although its Tomatometer Score is just 50% positive. Den of Thieves isn’t opening as wide, while its reviews are not as good. It also shares its target audience with 12 Strong, which will hurt its box office chances even more. Finally there’s Forever My Girl, which is barely opening semi-wide and will likely miss the top ten. This weekend last year, Split had a shockingly big opening. In fact, the second place film, xXx: Return of Xander Cage, opened with just over $20 million, which is more than any film is expected to earn this weekend. 2018’s mini-winning streak is about to come to a painful end.
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January 17th, 2018
Phantom Thread was the only film in the $10,000 club this past weekend, earning an average of $18,513 in 62 theaters.
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January 16th, 2018
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle continues to surprise analysts earning $35.18 million over the MLK long weekend. At this point, I would be shocked if it didn’t finish with $350 million domestically, while I assume Sony has a planned trilogy in the works. The best “new” release of the week was The Post, which expanded into second place with $23.06 million, while the best truly new release of the week was The Commuter at $15.80 million. Overall, the box office fell 4.7% from last weekend, earning $165 million over the the three-day weekend. This was still 5.9% higher than the same weekend last year, and that’s the more important number. It is still very early in the year, extremely early, but 2018 does have a $27 million / 5.1% lead over 2017 at $553 million to $526 million. 2018 could lose that entire lead next weekend, but I chose to focus on the positive for now.
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January 14th, 2018
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle will come out an easy winner at the box office this MLK weekend. Over three days, the family adventure is headed for an estimated $27 million, for $283 million to date. With another $8 million or so on Monday, the film will finish the holiday on the threshold of $300 million domestically. Partly helped by the long weekend, it will record the 10th-best fourth weekend of all time—remarkable strength for a movie that ran the risk of being over-shadowed by The Last Jedi when it came out at Christmas.
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January 13th, 2018
There was a two-horse race on the Friday box office chart. In the end, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle came out on top with $6.13 million, for $262.26 million after 24 days of release. Because it is a holdover, it should have better legs over the rest of the weekend, putting it on pace for just over $30 million over the weekend, matching our prediction perfectly.
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January 12th, 2018
The Post led the way during previews with $775,000. Dramas aimed at a more mature target audience tend to not do as well in previews as most other films, so this is a good sign. Additionally, the film’s reviews are right on the border of award-worthy, so the word of mouth should be strong. This is right in line with our prediction, so I’m happy with this result.
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January 11th, 2018
It is the first long weekend of 2018 and we have four films trying to take advantage of the MLK holiday. However, only Paddington 2 and The Post have a real shot at box office success. The Commuter’s buzz is so quiet that its box office chances have taken a real hit. Worse still, Sony’s treatment of Proud Mary is almost bizarre. I’ve seen limited releases with more marketing push than Proud Mary is getting. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle’s legs will likely remain really long, helping it repeat as box office champion. More importantly, it should help the 2018 box office get a sizable win in the year-over-year comparison. This weekend last year, there were seven films that earned more than $10 million over the long weekend, but only one film, Hidden Figures, earned more than $20 million. This year, not only will we match that number of $10 million films, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle should top $30 million, while Paddington 2 and The Post should top $20 million.
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January 11th, 2018
The BAFTA nominations were announced and this time The Shape of Water led the way with 12 nominations. The same films appear on many of the lists of nominees, but so far no one film has come to dominate the list. This makes it interesting, to say the least. There’s a good chance no one film will win the majority of prestige awards and that multiple films will have lots of reason to celebrate on February 18th when the awards are handed out.
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January 10th, 2018
None of the new releases reached the $10,000 club, which is not unexpected. The Post remained in first place earning an average of $47,167 in 36 theaters. This is an amazing omen for its upcoming wide expansion. Phantom Thread slipped to $40,040 in four theaters. There was a large gap to the third place film, Ex Files 3: Return of the Exes, which earned an average of $10,418 in 17 theaters, while I, Tonya was right behind with $10,107 in 242 theaters. The best new release of the week was actually the only wide release of the week, Insidious: The Last Key, with an average of $9,493.
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January 7th, 2018
The Golden Globes winners were announced on Sunday and there were a few surprises worth talking about, starting at the top. I was not expecting Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri to be the big winner of the night, but it was with four wins. Only two other movies, The Shape of Water and Lady Bird, won more than one award during the night.
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January 7th, 2018
The Last Jedi’s run at the top of the chart came to an abrupt end this weekend, according to studio estimates released on Sunday morning. Disney’s big Christmas hit doesn’t seem to have much by way of legs going into January, as it falls by 55% from New Year’s weekend, the worst performance in the top 10. It will still pick up another $23.551 million or so, according to the studio, for a total of $572.5 million to date domestically. Its global total now stands at $1.2 billion, the 13th-best performance of all time.
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January 5th, 2018
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The Producers Guild of America finally finished announcing their nominations. (They spread out their announcements for reasons I’ve never quite understood.) It is a strange year for the PGAs, as there was a tie resulting in 11 films being nominated for the top prize.
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January 3rd, 2018
The Post remained the top film on the theater average chart for the second weekend is a row, earning an average of $62,342 in nine theaters and has earned nearly $2 million at the box office. It wasn’t the only film in the $10,000 club; in fact, there were seven such films. Second place went to Phantom Thread, with an average of $54,124 in four theaters. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle was the best of the wide releases earning an average of $13,294. I, Tonya earned an average of $12,461 in 49 theaters during its fourth weekend of release. The overall number one film, The Last Jedi, was right behind with $12,410. Along With the Gods: The Two Worlds earned an average of $11,370 in 17 theaters, while the final film in the $10,000 club was Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool, which earned an average of $11,298 in four theaters.
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January 1st, 2018
2017 wasn’t a good year. It started out well and ended on a high note, but the summer was a disaster and that proved to be too much for the rest of the year to overcome. Fortunately, The Last Jedi and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle are still doing very well and will help January get off to a fast start. Unfortunately, the biggest new release of January is Paddington 2 and it isn’t expected to match its predecessor at the box office; it certainly won’t top $100 million domestically. It is unlikely any of the Oscar contenders will hit the century mark in January either. This is really bad news, as last January, we had a new release, Split and an Oscar contender, Hidden Figures, which both topped that milestone with ease. 2018 should get off to a faster start in the first two weeks, but overall, this month will end with a loss.
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December 27th, 2017
The Post dominated the Christmas weekend, earning an average of $58,446 in nine theaters, $84,673 if you include Christmas Day. The second best result of the four-day weekend was Phantom Thread, which earned an average of $31,818 in four theaters on Christmas Day alone. Last week’s winner, The Last Jedi, earned an average of $16,911 during its second weekend of release. The final two films in the $10,000 club were I, Tonya and Along With The Gods: The Two Worlds with averages of $11,169 and $10,914 respectively.
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December 24th, 2017
It’s a very crowded weekend, to say the least, in theaters, with five new wide releases already playing, and another joining the fray tomorrow. The Last Jedi is unperturbed by the competition, and will come out an easy winner, according to studio estimates released on Sunday. Its $68.486 million projected 3-day gross takes it to $365 million after 10 days in release. Among its new records this weekend, it became the 3rd-fastest film to earn $350 million at the domestic box office, and will have the 3rd-best Christmas weekend. All this is in spite of the fact that takings are expected to be down significantly today as everyone prepares for, or starts celebrating, the holiday.
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December 22nd, 2017
It’s Christmas weekend, and, while there are a large number of wide releases, there are not that many limited ones. Some of them, like The Post, are going for Oscar glory. Others just feel like they are being dumped into theaters to disappear.
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December 11th, 2017
The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. Sort of. (WGA announced the nominations for TV, radio, etc., but not their theatrical nods.) It is still very early in the year, so it is hard to say if there are any real snubs, or if there are any real favorites. The Shape of Water led the way with seven nominations, while The Post and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri were right behind with six a piece.
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November 8th, 2017
Real-life drama starring Tom Hanks and Meryl Streep, directed by Steven Spielberg, opens December 22 in select theaters, goes nationwide January 12 ... Full Movie Details.
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