October 27th, 2012
Prometheus was surprisingly strong on the Blu-ray sales chart opening with 875,000 units / $17.49 million. Its opening week Blu-ray share was an outstanding 72%. Usually you only see that level with catalogue titles.
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October 26th, 2012
Prometheus was one of eight new releases to reach the top 30 on this week's DVD Sales Chart. It led the way with 348,000 units / $5.92 million. This is lower than expected, but it did do much better on Blu-ray.
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October 8th, 2012
It is a soft week for new releases with only Prometheus looking strong. The film has earned polarizing reviews, so while many will like it, it's probably best to rent the DVD, Blu-ray Combo Pack, or 3D Combo Pack instead of buying outright. There are some TV on DVD releases and limited releases coming out this week, but you have to look to the catalogue Blu-rays coming out this week that are contenders for Pick of the Week. E.T. The Extraterrestrial, hasn't arrived yet, but its Anniversary Edition Blu-ray could be the best film on this week's list. However, Dial M for Murder in 3D is also a contender. 3D is still a niche market, so E.T. is the best bet for Pick of the Week.
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August 7th, 2012
Celeste and Jesse Forever opened in four theaters and earned just over $100,000 for an average of $26,946. This suggests a strong potential to expand. Killer Joe did expand going from three to fourteen theaters, but its theater average dipped roughly 8% to $11,647. That's an amazing hold and bodes well for the film's future.
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June 25th, 2012
Turns out the weekend was rather predictable, with nearly every film earning roughly what they were expected to do. More films topped expectations than missed them, and this includes Brave, which earned more than last year's winner, Cars 2. This helped the overall box office grow 26% from last weekend to $164 million. Unfortunately, the other two new releases, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter and Seeking a Friend for the End of the World, were not as strong compared to the counter-programming from last year, Bad Teacher, and this meant 2012 lost to 2011 by 7%. Worse still, next weekend will be a disaster, as there are four middling releases that will have to compete with Transformers: Dark of the Moon.
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June 21st, 2012
This is not a fun time to be a box office analyst, as there has been a lot of unpredictability recently. Predicting the number one film is easy, as Brave is the only film earning any real buzz. In fact, people will be comparing it to Cars 2 more than any other film playing in theaters this weekend. This is partially because Cars 2 opened this weekend last year, but also because that was Pixar's most recent film. Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter has generated a lot of buzz on the internet, but that means little at the box office. Seeking a Friend for the End of the World will need to connect with more mature moviegoers, and while they haven't had a lot of wide releases to check out, the film is opening in less than 2000 theaters, which will hurt its box office chances. Unless we have some pleasant surprises, we could see another loss in the year-over-year comparison.
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June 20th, 2012
Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted held firm on top of the international chart with $52.82 million on 11,633 screens in 43 markets for a total of $158.43 million internationally and $277.44 million worldwide. It fell just 36% in Russia for a weekend haul of $10.09 million on 1,830 screens over the weekend and a total of $36.00 million after two. Quite frankly, this is a stunning hold. Russia is known for steep declines (drop-offs greater than 60% are the norm). At this pace, the film could top The Avengers as the biggest hit in the market this year by this time next week. In Mexico, it made $5.03 million on 572 screens over the weekend for a total of $14.82 million after two, while in Brazil it managed $4.19 million on 870 screens over the weekend for a total of $17.53 million after two. In both of those markets the film remained in top spot. On the other hand, it slipped to second place during its second weekend in France down 45% to $4.41 million on 685 screens over the weekend for a total of $13.17 million so far. This is about on par with its run here. With many, many major markets left ahead of it, the film should have little trouble reaching more major milestones, while it should break even before it reaches the lucrative home market.
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June 19th, 2012
The winner of our One for the Ages contest were determined and they are...
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June 18th, 2012
The weekend could be be described as an epic disappointment. Rock of Ages and That's My Boy earned less during their opening weekends than some expected they would make during their opening days. This meant Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted had an easy win, even though it slumped a little bit more than expected. In fact, the only film in the top five that beat expectations was Snow White and the Huntsman. The overall box office fell 28% from last weekend to $130 million. More importantly, this was 15% lower than the same weekend last year. These wild swings at the box office are making it hard to predict what will happen in the future. We can't seem to get any momentum either way these past few weeks. Still, 2012 is ahead of 2011 by 9.5% at $4.91 billion to $4.49 billion and we do have at least one monster hit left to open this summer, so that lead could increase by the end of August.
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June 17th, 2012
What was billed as a potentially tight race at the top of the chart this weekend has turned into a romp for Madagascar 3 thanks in part to a steep second-weekend decline for Prometheus, but mainly to weak openings for Rock of Ages and That's My Boy. Madagascar itself will be down 41% to $35.5 million and a 10 day total of $120.4 million, which is a fairly sizable decline for a family movie at this time of year. Prometheus is set to decline 60% to $20.2 million this weekend, for $88.9 million so far. Rock of Ages will be third with $15 million for the weekend, which leaves it far short of its $75 million budget. That's My Boy will most likely end up in 5th place with $13 million, which may prove to be Adam Sandler's worst opening weekend ever, once adjusted for ticket price inflation.
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June 14th, 2012
It could be a really close race for the top of the box office chart between Rock of Ages, That's My Boy, and last week's winner, Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted. All three films have a shot at a weekend haul in the mid-to-high $30 million range. That's the good news. The bad news is, none of them really have a shot at matching Green Lattern's $50 million opening from this weekend last year. Because of this, 2012 will need to rely on depth to earn a win in the year-over-year comparison and while there are some positive signs, it could be a close race.
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June 12th, 2012
Prometheus earned $9.1 million of its $50 million opening weekend box office on IMAX, which is a record for a June opening. It also pulled in $3.0 million internationally lifting its worldwide total to $14 million.
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June 7th, 2012
It should be another very close race for top spot on the box office next weekend with Rock of Ages and That's My Boy having about equal chances of earning first place. I think Rock of Ages will earn better reviews and will come out on top by a narrow margin. Regardless if I'm right, it is the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Rock of Ages.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Journey 2: The Mysterious Island on Blu-ray
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Journey 2: The Mysterious Island on Blu-ray
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! In the meantime, check out the new Journey 2 App.
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June 1st, 2012
As May ends and we look forward to June, we have some good news and some bad news to report from last month. First the bad news. Nearly every film missed expectations, sometimes by massive levels. The good news? The Avengers was a record-breaking hit and it managed to compensate for every miss of the month and May of 2012 was just as strong as May of 2011. Unfortunately, the month has ended on a low note and The Avengers is shedding theaters, so new releases will be really important for June's chances. There are two films that were supposed to open wide this month that are no longer doing so, although we did have one film moved up to replace G.I. Joe: Retaliation, but that still leaves just twelve films opening wide over the five weekends in June. This does include six films that have a real shot at earning $100 million or more at the box office, and three of those have a shot at $200 million. Prometheus is earning a ton of buzz and there are some that think it will be the biggest hit of the month. It might even be a $300 million hit. However, you can't count out Brave in the race to become the biggest hit of the month, as Pixar's average is over $250 million and $300 million is also not out of the question. It's hard to compare last June, because there were only four weekends last June, and Transformers: Dark of the Moon opened on the Wednesday before the July 1st long weekend, which throws off the numbers. If you consider Dark of the Moon a June release, then there were six $100 million movies and one $300 million this month last year. We will need nearly every film to match expectations in order for 2012 to continue to strengthen its lead on 2011.
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