April 24th, 2013
Wreck-It Ralph led a group of five new releases earning first place on the March 10th, 2013 edition of the Blu-ray sales chart. The film sold 1.01 million units and generated $28.29 million in opening week sales, for an opening week Blu-ray share of 50%. This is is amazing for a kids film. Granted, it does have a high nerd nostalgia factor, which helped on Blu-ray, but this is still impressive.
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April 24th, 2013
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 remained on top spot on the March 10th, 2013 edition of the DVD sales chart, while there were seven new releases to put in an appearance in the top 30. Part 2 sold an additional 1.35 million units / $20.23 million during its first full week of release for early totals of 3.47 million units / $51.87 million. It is the best selling DVD of the year.
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April 19th, 2013
A pair of new releases led the way on the March 3rd, 2013 edition of the Blu-ray sales chart. Or perhaps there was only one. It depends on how you look at things. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 earned first place with 649,000 units / $12.96 million. However, second place went to the Breaking Dawn double-shot, which sold 173,000 units / $3.77 million. Technically those are two different releases, but one could count them as one movie. Individually, they have opening week Blu-ray shares of 23% and 29%, which is pretty bad for a first-run release. However, this franchise has always pulled in more women than men, and movies aimed at women tend not to do as well on Blu-ray.
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April 19th, 2013
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 dominated the new releases and easily took first place on the March 3rd, 2013 edition of the DVD sales chart. It sold 2.12 million units and generated $31.64 million, and did so during a shortened sales week. (It came out on Friday.) Second place went to a Breaking Dawn double-pack, which was an exclusive release. The double-shot sold an additional 418,00 units and generated $16.70 million more in sales. Add them together, and this film is already the best selling DVD of 2013, at least so far.
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April 14th, 2013
The one-two punch of Argo / Game of Thrones: Season Two helped the Blu-ray sales hold on rather well from last week. Granted, overall the new releases were not as strong and sales fell 30% in terms of units and 19% in terms of revenue, but 1.83 million units and $49.39 million is still a good week. More importantly, this was 39% more units sold and 51% higher revenue generated when compared to last year. It also boosted the overall Blu-ray share to 39% in terms of units and 51% in terms of revenue.
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April 14th, 2013
There were two new releases that had a legitimate claim on top spot on the Blu-ray sales chart for the week of February 24th, 2013. Argo sold the most units at 378,000 generating $8.68 million earning a opening week Blu-ray of 40%. On the other hand, Game of Thrones: Season Two generated the most revenue at $10.08 million, from 336,000 units sold. Its opening week Blu-ray share was 58%, which is fantastic, even compared to first run releases and not just TV on DVD releases.
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April 14th, 2013
Argo was one of six new releases to chart on this week's DVD sales chart. It pulled in first place with 564,000 units / $8.44 million. This is not a huge amount given its box office and critical success, but it did relatively better on Blu-ray.
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April 11th, 2013
Skyfall led the new releases and completely dominated the February 17th, 2013 edition of the Blu-ray sales chart. It also helped the overall Blu-ray market soar to record-setting heights. Overall, there were 2.59 million units sold and $61.13 million in total revenue, making it the best ever week for Blu-ray, outside of the Christmas shopping season. Compared to last week, total sales were 75% higher in terms of units and 66% higher in terms of revenue. Sales were also higher than last year, albeit by a little less impressive numbers. There were 47% more units sold, while total revenue was 44% higher. Finally, the overall Blu-ray share rose to 39% in terms of units and 50% in terms of revenue. Admittedly, the latter number was due mostly to rounding. (A more precise number is 49.501%.)
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March 3rd, 2013
The year's first big-budget special effects extravaganza is headed for a decidedly weak opening weekend. Jack the Giant Slayer will earn about $28 million, according to Warner Bros., which is only a fraction of its reported $195 million production budget. Even with international numbers expected to be better, the film will struggle financially. The weekend's other openers are posting even more modest numbers, but benefit from having much, much lower budgets. 21 and Over is set for $9 million for Relativity and The Last Exorcism Part II will post about $8 million for CBS Films. Phantom, from new distributor RCR Media Group, will pick up a very weak $460,000 or so (they have not shared an official number with us) from 1,118 theaters, highlighting once more the challenge for new distributors in establishing a place in the market.
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February 25th, 2013
Argo was the big winner at the Oscars last night, although arguably, there were no big winners, but a lot of films that shared in the glory. There were also some pretty interesting twists and a few events that stand out. Due to ongoing computer difficulties, I was unable to live-blog the Oscars this year. I will still be giving my reactions on a category by category basis, but not in the order they were handed out.
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February 24th, 2013
The box office crown for Oscar weekend will be claimed by Identity Thief, according to studio estimates released on Sunday morning, even though the comedy will fall by a relatively large 41% from last weekend. So its win is in large part due to the low-key new releases: Snitch will be second with $13 million in a modest 2,511 theaters and Dark Skies is headed for 6th place with $8.85 million from 2,313 theaters. Neither new film has particularly low per theater averages ($5,177 and $3,826 respectively), so their so-so debuts are as much a factor of their smallish opening theater counts as lack of demand.
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February 22nd, 2013
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try to figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. We wrap up our look at the prestigious categories with the most prestigious of them all: Best Picture. Like last year, there are nine nominees. Unlike last year, none of them were completely out of left field. That's not to say they all have a legitimate shot at winning; there's definitely a favorite. However, politics could become an issue. I don't mean politics as in Democrat vs. Republican. I mean behind-the-scenes issues might play a bigger role than what is on the screen. Let's take a look at the nominees, and their chances to claiming the crown on Sunday.
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February 21st, 2013
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we will look at the two writing categories, starting with Best Adapted Screenplay. This is a race that is not as close as many thought it would be, and it is not the two early front-runners running away with the Oscar.
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February 21st, 2013
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we will look at the four acting categories, continuing with Best Supporting Actor. This category is more competitive than Best Supporting Actress, but even so, it is mostly a two horse race.
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February 20th, 2013
This week's list is a little shorter than usual, because of technical difficulties. I've been getting an average of one Blue Screen of Death per day for just over a week. It seems to happen most often when I open too many tabs in Firefox. Worse still, two of the sites that seem to set off the BSOD are YouTube and Rotten Tomatoes. Fortunately I've narrowed the problem down to a driver conflict for either my video or perhaps a Windows system driver. Or it could be bad RAM. Or it could be a bad power supply. Or perhaps a virus or other malware. So when I said I had it narrowed down the problem, I was lying. I don't have time to take the computer to get it fixed, not until the Oscars are over, but I promise to get caught up by the weekend. It is quite a good week for new releases with a number of contenders for Pick of the Week. The two main contender are Argo on Blu-ray Combo Pack and Game of Thrones: Season Two on DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack. While Argo is cleaning up during Awards Season, I've given Game of Thrones the edge here.
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February 19th, 2013
Argo continues its winning ways at the WGAs this weekend. It has become the defacto favorite for the Oscars, despite the high profile Oscar snub.
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February 17th, 2013
President's Day weekend will end with a win and a solid opening for A Good Day to Die Hard, based on studio estimates released on Sunday, but it'll be a close run thing. Safe Haven was a predictable winner on Valentine's Day but has faded fast and is projected to earn $21.4 million Friday-Sunday for third place. Second place is going to be claimed by Identity Thief with about $23.4 million over three days, during which time it has steadily caught up with Die Hard, so much so that it has a good chance of winning the day on Monday. The Bruce Willis actioner will, however, get to claim the title for the weekend with a respectable $25 million for three days and close to $40 million in total by the end of Monday.
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February 10th, 2013
Universal has a winner on its hands this weekend, as Identity Thief is set to make a very impressive $36.5 million or so, according to their Sunday tracking, and that in spite of the big storm in the Northeast (reportedly causing a 10% at the box office) and mediocre reviews. The performance is perhaps helped by the surfeit of Oscar-hopefuls and action movies in theaters recently, and is clearly also a feather in the cap for stars Jason Bateman and Melissa McCarthy. The weekend's other opener, Side Effects is set for a more modest $10 million, which isn't exactly DOA, but is at best on life support. Perhaps good word of mouth will help it hang on in theaters for a while.
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February 3rd, 2013
Directors Guild of America Awards were this weekend and the big winner shouldn't surprise too many people, assuming they've been paying attention. Argo won yet again and given this, Ben Affleck should be the favorite to win an Oscar at the end of the month... except he wasn't even nominated.
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January 28th, 2013
The SAG handed out their awards over the weekend and while Lincoln took home two awards, Argo continues its surprising run by winning the big award of the night.
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January 28th, 2013
Producers Guild of America gave out their awards over the weekend, and there were a couple surprises, including a big win for Argo.
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January 27th, 2013
January will go out like a lamb at the box office, with three new releases failing to catch on with moviegoers this weekend and not much action among the holdovers. Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters will win the weekend more-or-less by default, with a modest $19 million bow from 3,372 theaters. That spells financial disaster for a film that reportedly cost $50 million to make. FilmDistrict's $30 million-budgeted Parker will have a similarly tough time recouping its investment, although lower marketing costs will help. It starts out with $7 million and a per theater average of $3,147. Even more disappointing is Movie 43, which is set to open with $5 million, although its $6 million budget and likely long shelf life on video will avert catastrophe.
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January 20th, 2013
For all the Oscar hype, moviegoers are voting with their feet this MLK weekend for a more straightforward entertainment bang for their buck. Mama is set to win the weekend by a large margin, with Universal estimating a $28.1 million three-day weekend and about $33 million over four days. With the film playing in a relatively modest 2,647 theaters, that translates into a per theater average of $10,625, comfortably ahead of any other wide release. Jessica Chastain has dual reasons to celebrate, with Zero Dark Thirty set to finish second for the weekend with $17.6 million. Fellow Oscar-hopeful Silver Linings Playbook will be third with about $11.35 million over three days in its first weekend in wide release.
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January 14th, 2013
The Directors Guild of America handed out their nominations for Feature Films last week and Documentaries today. No, I have no idea why they split up their announcements. Usually, there's a lot of overlap between the DGAs and the Oscars, but that's not the case this year, so we again have some surprises.
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January 14th, 2013
Hollywood Foreign Press Association handed out their awards last night, and the trend of surprises continues. Les Miserables led the way with three awards, only one of which I was truly expecting. Meanwhile, Argo won more awards than Lincoln. I don't think anyone was predicting that.
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January 10th, 2013
The Oscar nominations were announced this morning, and there's certainly a lot to talk about. There are some nominations that should surprise no one. For instance, Lincoln led the way with twelve nominations, and it has been seen as the major contender for a long time. However, there were also a few surprise nominations and some major snubs. Here are the list of nominations, and some reactions.
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January 7th, 2013
Surprises seems to be the word of the day, as the WGA nominations included a number of them. Granted, Zero Dark Thirty and a lot of the other films that have earned Awards Season success thus far were here, but there were almost as many surprises as there were obvious choices.
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January 6th, 2013
Producers Guild of America announced their nominations this week, including the three theatrical categories. There were a number of films on the list that have been mentioned time and time again this awards season, like Zero Dark Thirty, but there were also a few surprises.
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December 13th, 2012
The Hollywood Foreign Press Association announced their nominations and the same list of films that have been mentioned since the beginning of Awards Season were rewarded today. Lincoln led the way with seven nods, while Argo and Django Unchained were close behind with five.
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December 12th, 2012
SAG nominations were announced and there were only a few surprises to deal with. Leading the way for total nominations was The Silver Linings Playbook, Lincoln, and Les Miserables, all of which earned nominations in four of the six categories.
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December 6th, 2012
We are still stuck with studio estimates for the international numbers, but we can confidently say The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 is in top spot. The film pulled in $48.8 million on 11,800 screens in 73 markets for totals of $447.8 million internationally and $702.40 million worldwide. It has likely already become the biggest hit in the franchise. The film had no major market openings, but it has yet to debut in Japan, but it will likely get past $800 million before then, which will be its last major milestone.
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December 3rd, 2012
It was a close race for top spot as The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 just held off Skyfall by less than $1 million. Unfortunately, the best new release, Killing Them Softly, failed to match low expectations, while The Collection barely managed a spot in the top ten. The overall box office fell 45% to $114 million. However, as sharp as that decline was, it was still 41% higher than the same weekend last year and December begins with 2012 ahead of 2011 by 5.9% at $9.91 billion to $9.36 billion.
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November 29th, 2012
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 held firm in first place with $104.21 million on 12,818 screens in 73 markets for a two-week total of $365.46 million intentionally and $592.83 million worldwide. By this time next week, it should be the biggest hit in the franchise. This past weekend, the film opened in Germany earning first place with $12.82 million on 765 screens for a total opening of $16.67 million. Its best holdover was in the U.K. where it made $8.56 million on 559 screens over the weekend for a total of $43.22 million. This is a strong result, but it was down 66%, which is troubling. It was better in Russia down 62% to $8.30 million on 1,380 screens for a total of $36.28 million after two. A 62% decline is actually average for the market, more or less. The film has very few markets left to open in, but it is already profitable, so the studio should be very happy.
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November 26th, 2012
The Thanksgiving long weekend was stronger than anticipated with nearly every film topping predictions, some by pretty big margins. In fact, some earned more over three days than they were expected to earn over five days. Despite this, the box office was actually down 17% from last weekend to $208 million over the three-day portion of the weekend. This was 26% higher than the three-day portion of last year's Thanksgiving long weekend. Over five days, the box office pulled in $291 million, which is the most ever for a Thanksgiving weekend and 25% higher than last year. Year-to-date, 2012 has pulled in $9.75 billion, which is 5.5% higher than last year's running tally of $9.24 billion. If 2012 can simply match 2011 the rest of the way, then we will set a new all-time yearly box office total with about $10.7 billion.
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November 21st, 2012
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 opened internationally and dominated the chart with $199.45 million on 13,400 screens in 61 markets during its first weekend of release. It opened in a number of major markets, scoring first place in all of them. In the U.K., the film made $25.20 million on 558 screens, while it also topped $20 million in Russia with $21.97 million on 1,366. In France, the film pulled in $16.56 million on 823 screens, while in Brazil it earned $12.24 million on 1,213 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $17.87 million. In Spain it made $11.76 million on 1,052 screens over the weekend and $12.11 million including previews. It earned $10.58 million on 856 screens over the weekend in Italy for a total opening on $13.34 million. Mexico was close behind with $9.94 million on 2,642 screens over the weekend and $12.29 million in total. It didn't hit the $10 million market in South Korea; in fact, it barely earned first place there with $5.91 million on 665 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $7.17 million. A local hit, A Werewolf Boy was right behind, but more on that below.
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November 15th, 2012
For the third weekend in a row, Skyfall remained in first place on the international chart with $89.08 million on 11,909 screens in 80 markets for a total of $429.63 million. This is the biggest international total for the franchise and it is very close to topping the worldwide total of all of the pre-Daniel Craig Bond films. Worldwide, the film has $520.19 million and is on pace to add at least $200 million more, likely $300 million to its worldwide total before it is done. There were no major market openings this weekend, but the film did become the biggest non-3D release in the U.K. with $114.50 million, including $16.61 million on 589 screens this past weekend. It is fifth on the all-time chart in that market, but it likely overtook Toy Story 3 ($116 million) and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 ($117 million) already. Up next is Titanic at $127 million and Avatar at $149 million. I wouldn't be willing to bet money it would become the all time leader, but I also wouldn't bet money against it.
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November 13th, 2012
Most people were expecting Skyfall to be a monster hit, but the film actually beat great expectations. Its opening helped the box office grow by 25% from last week to $173 million, which was 26% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2012 reached the $9 billion mark and not sits at $9.10 billion. By comparison, at this point in 2011, the total box office was $8.72 billion giving 2012 a 4.4% lead over last year.
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November 8th, 2012
There's only one wide release this weekend, but Skyfall could become one of the biggest hits of the holiday season. Nearly all analysts assume it will be the fastest opening Bond film of all time. It might make more that last year's top three films made combined. Wreck-It-Ralph should still be strong at the box office, while Flight should hold on better than most other films do. Overall it should be a very good week at the box office.
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November 5th, 2012
Wreck-It-Ralph's opening was on the very high end of expectations, which was a pleasant surprise over the weekend. Also, Flight beat all but the most bullish predictions. Even The Man with the Iron Fists did a little better than expected. Overall, the box office soared 49% from last weekend to $138 million. It was also higher compared to this weekend last year by a very impressive 21%. November certainly got off to a great start. Year-to-date, 2012 is ahead of 2011's pace by just under 4.0% at $8.89 billion to $8.55 billion. After a couple weak months, the box office has shown great strength and it would take a disastrous collapse for 2012 to not come out ahead.
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November 4th, 2012
Wreck-It Ralph is breathing new life into the box office this weekend, after a few slow weeks, and with some help from an impressive opening for Flight this weekend will be a healthy 20% or so ahead of last year. Disney is projecting that Ralph will open with $49.1 million, which is a very creditable performance, if well behind the openings of The Incredibles and Monsters, Inc., both of which were released on the equivalent weekend in years gone by. The Pixar brand still counts for a lot, evidently. Flight's $25.01 million projection is well ahead of expectations (take a bow Denzel Washington and Robert Zemeckis), and has strong enough reviews to have good chances of legs into the Holiday Season.
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November 2nd, 2012
There's only one truly wide release this week, Wreck-It-Ralph, but it is opening in more than 3,700 theaters and with reviews that match its pre-release buzz. There are also two films opening in a little under 2,000 theaters, Flight and The Man with the Iron Fists, but both are earning good reviews and could have some impact at the box office by earning places in the top five. Last year the box office was led by Puss in Boots with $33.05 million during its sophomore stint. I think Wreck-It-Ralph will easily top that. The new releases were Tower Heist and A Very Harold and Kumar Christmas, which combined pulled in $36.98 million. I really doubt Flight and Iron Fists will do the same. So unless Wreck-It-Ralph has close to a $50 million opening, November will start off on a losing note in the year-over-year comparison.
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October 29th, 2012
It was a really bad weekend for new releases with none of the new films meeting expectations and two of them opening below the Mendoza Line. Argo climbed to top spot over the weekend. It used to be quite common for films to climb to the top of the chart, but the market has changed and opening weekends have become so important, so this feat is now very rare. Cloud Atlas was the best of the new releases, but "Best" here is a dubious title, as it barely grabbed second place. Silent Hill: Revolution 3D barely grabbed fifth place, while the less said about Fun Size and Chasing Mavericks the better. The overall box office collapsed by 28% compared to last week hitting just $93 million. It also fell compared to last year, the box office was down 11%, which is disappointing after a series of wins. However, last year Puss in Boots debuted and it was more of a November release opening a week early. Year-to-date, 2012 is still ahead of 2011 with the margin at $8.71 billion to $8.40 billion, or 3.8%. The goal going forward is to maintain this lead, while any growth would be more than welcome.
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October 28th, 2012
A terrible weekend for new releases will leave Argo the weekend winner by default, according to studio estimates released on Sunday morning. The biggest disappointment of the weekend is Cloud Atlas, a pricey ($102 million, according to reports) sci-fi epic from Lana and Andy Wachowski, and Tom Tykwer, that will open with $9.4 million or so, and won't be helped by a C+ CinemaScore. Silent Hill: Revelation 3D confirms that it won't be the new Halloween franchise by opening with a projected $8m, but that looks positively healthy compared to the openings of Fun Size and Chasing Mavericks. With those films projected to open with $4.06 million and $2.2 million respectively, this pre-Halloween weekend looks like a bloodbath.
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October 25th, 2012
There are four new films coming out in wide release this week and depending on who you ask, there are four films that have a shot at earning first place. Last Friday, I assumed Cloud Atlas would win, but its reviews have taken a major hit and it will likely finish below the overall positive level. This leaves an opening for Silent Hill: Revolution 3D, which is opening in the most theaters, but it has no reviews and direct competition. Argo has been leading the way on the daily chart and there's a chance it will climb into first place this weekend. There is also a chance that Paranormal Activity will retain first place, although it will have to avoid the predicted collapse. So which film will come out on top? I'm not sure. On the other hand, I'm fairly sure the other two wide releases will fail to find a substantial audience. Fun Size is opening in 2,800 theaters, but very few think it will do well. Even making the top five is likely out of the question. Meanwhile, Chasing Mavericks is opening in just over 2,000 theaters and it is another film that will likely miss the top five, maybe even the top ten. Compared to last year, 2012 is in trouble. Puss in Boots opened with just over $34 million and there's a small chance all four wide releases won't make that much combined this weekend. There's almost no chance 2012 will come out ahead, unless at least two of the new releases are much bigger than expected.
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October 22nd, 2012
As everyone was expecting, Paranormal Activity 4 led the way on the box office chart this past weekend; however, it did so with much weaker than expected numbers. The other new release, Alex Cross, also missed expectations. On the other hand, the holdovers held on a lot better than expected. The overall box office was still weaker than last weekend, but only by 0.9%. We can call that a tie. Compared to last year, the overall box office rose by 6%. That's not a huge amount, but considering this weekend last year saw Paranormal Activity 3 break the record for biggest October opening, a victory by any margin is worth celebrating. Year-to-date, 2012 is maintaining its lead over 2011. 2012 currently has a 3.9% advantage over 2011's pace at $8.59 billion to $8.26 billion. Since 2011 didn't have a strong winter run, 2012 should be able to maintain, if not expand, its lead.
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October 21st, 2012
After five years of Saw, and a hand-over period of a couple of years, the Paranormal Activity franchise has come to dominate the brief Halloween movie season. Showing that horror moviegoers may be more tradition-bound than any other category of film fans, Paranormal Activity 4 is set for a healthy opening this weekend, with Paramount projecting at total of $30.4 million by the end of the weekend. That's down quite a bit from the $50 million-plus debut of Paranormal Activity 3 last year, and the franchise does look like it is losing some momentum. With production budgets around $5 million, and relatively modest marketing costs, however, the studio will earn a healthy profit from this release and has, predictably, announced Paranormal Activity 5 will go into production early next year for release in October.
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October 18th, 2012
It's the weekend before Halloween, so that must mean Paranormal Activity. The fourth installment in the franchise should dominate the box office, but the challenge is for Paranormal Activity 4 to top Paranormal Activity 3. The only other wide release of the week is Alex Cross, Tyler Perry's attempt to build a mainstream acting career. There's not a lot of buzz for that film. Last year Paranormal Activity 3 broke the record for biggest October opening. There's a slim chance that will happen this year as well, but probably not. On the other hand, the other three releases made roughly $14 million combined, so while we are not as strong at the top, there's better depth in 2012.
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October 17th, 2012
The winner of our Marketplace of Predictions contest was determined and it is...
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October 15th, 2012
It was another good week at the box office with just about every film in the top ten at least doing as well as expected. Granted, none of the new releases were monster hits, but the depth was very good with five films topping $10 million over the weekend. Taken 2 remained in first place, so it should come as no surprise that the box office was lower than last weekend; however, it only fell 8.6% to $130 million. This is 48% more than the same weekend last year, which is a huge boost. Year-to-date, 2012 expanded its lead to 3.8% at $8.42 billion to $8.11 billion. Just a few weeks ago, it looked like 2012 would fall below 2011's pace in the end, but now things are looking a lot more optimistic.
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October 14th, 2012
Taken 2 is set for a second weekend at the top of the box office charts with $22.5 million, although its 55% decline from last weekend makes it clear that the film won't have anything like the legs of its predecessor, which fell only 17% in its second outing. That will make for a tight pack of films at the top of the chart this weekend, with Argo leading the charge. Ben Affleck's film is set for $20.1 million this weekend and is showing signs of having very good word of mouth: it was up 47% from Friday to Saturday and looks likely to fall by around 35% on Sunday -- impressive figures these days. Sinister will have the rare distinction of opening at the top of the chart on Friday and finishing the weekend in third place (Lionsgate has its gross pegged at $18.25 million over three days).
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October 11th, 2012
There could be as many as five new releases to reach the top ten this week. It is also very possible that Taken 2 will remain in first place on the weekend chart, so while there's a high quantity of new releases, the quality isn't there. Argo likely has the best shot at becoming the new number one film, but some think Sinister will benefit from the close proximity to Halloween and steal a victory. On the other hand the buzz for Here Comes the Boom just hasn't grown like it should and it could struggle to grab fifth place, despite playing in more than 3,000 theaters. On the other hand, Seven Psychopaths has excellent buzz, but is only playing in 1500 theaters. Finally there's Atlas Shrugged: Part II, which is opening in just over 1,000 theaters, but with no chance outside of its politically motivated target demographic. Last year was disappointing at the box office with none of the three new releases becoming hits, while the box office was led by Real Steel for the third weekend in a row. We should do better this time around, unless all of the new releases miss expectations.
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October 5th, 2012
There are three wide releases coming out next week, and another opening semi-wide. Here Comes the Boom could win the box office race, especially if Kevin James returns to his earlier box office success. Sinister could be a low-level hit, especially if horror fans are excited by Halloween, but it doesn't have the hype to compete for first place. Seven Psychopaths might win an Oscar given its reviews, but it is opening in less than 2000 theaters and likely won't reach the top five. This leaves Argo as the most likely candidate for number one film next weekend. (Here Comes the Boom does have a shot, while Taken 2 might repeat on top of the chart during its second weekend of release.) Argo is the target film in this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Argo.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), regardless if they go over or under, will win a copy of Dark Shadows on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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October 1st, 2012
2012 continues its downward path. After a record-breaking spring, thanks to The Hunger Games, and a record-breaking start to the summer, thanks to The Avengers, the box office hasn't been able to maintain any real momentum. For most of the month, September was no better than August and now the year-over-year gains are just a little more than inflation. October will need to improve or 2012 will be in real trouble. Unfortunately, that might be tough. There's not a single film coming out in October that looks like it will be a guaranteed $100 million hit and there are only two films with a realistic chance, Taken 2 and Paranormal Activity 4. (There's also Cloud Atlas, which is a wild card. That movie could bomb or be the biggest hit of the month and I wouldn't be surprised either way.) There is a chance all three will get to the century mark, but there's a better chance none of them will. Last October, two films cracked $100 million: Paranormal Activity 3 and Puss in Boots, with the latter nearly reaching $150 million. I don't see any film coming close to matching that figure. On the other hand, last year there were six films that one could accurately describe as bombs. So while 2012 is weaker at the top, it could have better depth than 2011 did. Let's hope so, because we can't afford more bad news.
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