This graph shows Tom Cruise’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny will continue into into its sophomore frame with its opening count of 4,600 theaters, once again easily making it the widest release of the week. The latest installment of the beloved adventure franchise turned up $60.37 million in its opening weekend, and currently holds a six-day total of $89.4 million, while bumping the franchise’s worldwide box office to over $2.1 billion. This week it will try to fend off the arrival of two new wide releases, as well as a surprise hit that arrived on the Fourth of July.
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Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny may break an unusual record this weekend by opening with fewer millions of dollars than the age of its leading star. The fifth movie in the franchise would need to top $80 million to outscore the age of its octogenarian lead, Harrison Ford, and it looks likely to come up short. The last tentpole adventure film to do that was probably 2017’s The Mummy, which stumbled out the gate with $31.6 million, in spite of having to cross a lower bar: Tom Cruise was “just” 54 when that film debuted. Indy will most likely come in somewhere around $70 million.
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Action movie with an ensemble cast led by Tom Cruise arrives in theaters on July 12, 2023 ... Full Movie Details.
Ethan Hunt and his IMF team embark on their most dangerous mission yet: to track down a terrifying new weapon that threatens all of humanity before it falls into the wrong hands. With control of the future and the fate of the world at stake, and dark forces from Ethan’s past closing in, a deadly race around the globe begins. Confronted by a mysterious, all-powerful enemy, Ethan is forced to consider that nothing can matter more than his mission—not even the lives of those he cares about most.
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As expected, this week witnesses a lull in new releases arriving to theaters, as well as the top films dropping in viewing locations. In fact, we have to go back nearly three months, to September 16, 2022 to not see a film registering over 4,000 locations. This week Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is back on top with 3,725 cinemas, and more so as a result of last week’s widest release, Strange World, shedding 614 theaters this week, beginning its third week at the box office in 3,560 venues. As everyone is likely aware, this week is just the calm before the storm until Avatar: The Way of Water makes landfall on December 16.
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After a slew of new wide releases made their way into movie theaters over the Thanksgiving Holiday, we see only one true new wide release coming to cinemas this week in the way of Christmas action-comedy, Violent Night. Joining Violent Night is a familiar face, as Top Gun: Maverick soars in for a two week theatrical engagement in 1,864 locations before making its streaming debut on Paramount+ starting December 22. Tom Cruise’s epic jet fighter sequel currently sits at number 5 on the all-time domestic box office chart with over $716 million in earnings. The widest release this week however belongs to last week’s newcomer, Strange World, keeping its opening count of 4,174 locations from its under-performing debut week.
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It’s Tom Cruise’s world. We just live in it. The incredible run of Top Gun: Maverick at the box office has helped increase our prediction for total box office earnings in 2022 by $200 million this month, in spite of a poor performance from Lightyear and, to a lesser extent, Jurassic World: Dominion. Our overall projection for the year now stands at $6.9 billion, up from the $6.7 billion our model projected as of May 18, and Maverick is now predicted to be the number one movie of the year.
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Two American icons are tied at the top of the box office this weekend, with Elvis and Tom Cruise’s Top Gun: Maverick both headed for a weekend around $30.5 million. Technically, Maverick leads according to the studios’ official projections, but that’s simply down to how they report the numbers on Sunday morning (and how we interpret what they report). We won’t know who has come out on top until official numbers are released on Monday.
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It feels like the buzz around Top Gun: Maverick has been growing since mid-May, 1986, given the cruel delays in development, production, and release of the film. It finally arrives in theaters this weekend with hype at a perfectly-timed crescendo, and will top War of the Worlds to give Tom Cruise his best opening weekend ever. Given its $19.3 million in previews on Thursday, it has Pirates of Caribbean: At World’s End’s $114.7-million Memorial Day 3-Day Weekend record firmly in its sights. Our model thinks it could go much higher than that given how quickly it’s taken off.
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After 36 years, the wait is finally over as Top Gun: Maverick arrives in theaters, and does so in high-flying fashion as it is propelled to the top of the all-time widest release chart by debuting in 4,735 theaters. Tom Cruise returns as Captain Pete “Maverick” Mitchell as he is tasked with training a new group of Top Gun recruits to go on a dangerous mission, while confronting elements from his past. Top Gun: Maverick isn’t the only wide release hitting theaters this week however as The Bob’s Burgers Movie enters the fray in 3,425 locations.
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For the third consecutive week, Doctor-Strange in the Multiverse of Madness stands perched atop our theater count chart. After compiling over $715 million worldwide since its release in early May, the film keeps its opening location count of 4,534 heading into week three, while two new wide releases appear this week: Focus Features’ Downton Abbey: A New Era and A24’s Men.
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After more than thirty years of service as one of the Navy’s top aviators, Pete “Maverick” Mitchell is where he belongs, pushing the envelope as a courageous test pilot and dodging the advancement in rank that would ground him. When he finds himself training a detachment of Top Gun graduates for a specialized mission the likes of which no living pilot has ever seen, Maverick encounters Lt. Bradley Bradshaw, call sign: “Rooster,” the son of Maverick’s late friend and Radar Intercept Officer Lt. Nick Bradshaw, aka “Goose.” Facing an uncertain future and confronting the ghosts of his past, Maverick is drawn into a confrontation with his own deepest fears, culminating in a mission that demands the ultimate sacrifice from those who will be chosen to fly it.
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Mission: Impossible—Fallout will likely end up being Paramount’s biggest hit released in 2018. (Bumblebee has a very slim shot at topping it.) It also earned some of the best reviews of any wide release of the year. Do I agree with the critical consensus? Or am I in the minority?
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June was amazing, with two absolutemonster hits and a solid $100 million hit. By the end of the month, 2018’s lead over 2017 will be well over $500 million, or close to 10%. Even if 2018 only managed to maintain this lead in terms of raw numbers for the rest of the year, it will be a massive jump at the box office. As for July, there are a couple of potential monster hits, Ant-Man and the Wasp and Mission: Impossible—Fallout, plus four potential $100 million hits. Last July, there was only one monster hit, Spider-Man: Homecoming, and three$100 millionhits. I don’t think 2018 will match 2017 at the top, but 2018 appears to have more depth and that should put it a little ahead over the full month.
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As long time readers know, summer is the worst time of the year for the home market. Summer blockbusters are taking up everyone’s attention and it is still too soon for the rush of TV on DVD releases. The biggest first-run release of the week is Acrimony, which is only for Tyler Perry fans. As for the best of the rest, there are a handful of Pick of the Week contenders, including two Anime titles. To be more accurate, only one of them came out this week, as it took a couple of weeks for my screener of My Hero Academia: Season Two, Volume Two: Limited Edition Combo Pack to arrive. It is the Pick of the Week.
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This is the first Tuesday of the year, so it should be no surprise that there are not a lot of top-tier releases on this week’s list. In fact, there were so few releases worth mentioning that I had to pad the list with some films that were not selling well enough to be worth mentioning during most weeks. As for the Pick of the Week contenders, there were only two: Lucky and Battle of the Sexes. It was a close race, but in the end, I gave that title to Lucky on DVD.
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Here at The Numbers, we strive to improve your reading experience by adding more features we believe you will find interesting. Today, we have two new features to talk about. Firstly, we have a series of new acting records for the various categorizations we use. For example, the highest grossing leading actors in films based on a TV show. The number one actor is Shia LaBeouf, who starred in the first three Transformers movies. Number two is Tom Cruise, who is the star of the Mission: Impossible franchise, while number five is Justin Long, who provided the voice for the titular character in the Alvin and the Chipmunks films. Starting to notice a pattern? Nearly everyone on the top of this list is someone who starred in one TV adaptation that turned into a lucrative franchise. The only exception is Simon Pegg, who has been in two of these franchises: Mission: Impossible and Star Trek trilogy.
Warner Bros. is claiming a weekend win at the box office for It as of this morning, but whichever way you slice it, we have a threeway tie at the top of the chart, based on Sunday morning estimates. In fact, we might have a rare weekend where three different movies will top the daily chart. American Madetook a lead on Friday with a $6.17 million opening day, It won on Saturday with around $7.9 million, and the eventual result for the weekend will depend on whether Kingsman: The Golden Circle wins on Sunday, and by how much. As of this morning, Kingsman is projected to make $17 million, American Made $17.02 million, and It (a slightly optimistic, for my money) $17.3 million. We’ll know the real winner on Monday morning, and It probably has a slight edge.
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The Mummy came out this summer and was supposed to kick off Universal’s Dark Universe franchise. In fact, Universal had announced about a dozen films in the franchise, at least one of which had a release date, but no star. Then the reviews started coming out. For a short time, The Mummy was the worst wide release of the summer. It bombed domestically and even though it did a lot better internationally, it still failed to pay for its nearly $200 million production budget. Was is unfairly attacked by critics? Or does Universal need to rethink their plans for a Dark Universe?
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As bad as July was, August actually managed to be worse. 2017 was over $300 million behind 2016’s pace during August alone. That’s worse than the rest of the summer combined. The only film that was an unqualified hit was Annabelle: Creation, although there were a couple of other films that are doing well enough to be considered financial hits. There’s some good news and some bad news for this September. The month gets off to a slow start with no wide releases the first weekend, but there are three films opening during the rest of the month that are expected to top $100 million and all three should be better than the best August had to offer. It is expected to be the biggest hit of the month and is tracking to break the record for the biggest September weekend. Both Kingsman: The Golden Circle and The Lego Ninjago Movie are expected to cross $100 million, although they are opening the same weekend, so that could hurt both of their chances. Meanwhile last September, Sully was the biggest release of the month earning $125.07 million. It should top that, while Kingsman: The Golden Circle and The Lego Ninjago Movie won’t be too far behind. 2017 should cut the gap with 2016, but sadly only by a little bit.
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There are precious few crumbs of comfort to be found from Universal’s launch of The Mummy this weekend. The studio is projecting a $32.2 million opening this weekend from 4,035 theaters. That will be a fairly distant second to Wonder Woman, which is expected to earn about $57.1 million. Even the bright news—that this is Tom Cruise’s biggest global opening weekend—comes with an asterisk.
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May was a really soft month with only one unqualified hit, Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2, which is climbing towards $375 million domestically. The second biggest hit of the month will be Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales and I would be surprised if it tops $150 million by any serious margin. June looks a lot more profitable. There are five weeks and every week there is at least one film with a great shot at $100 million or more. In fact, there are four films with at least a decent shot at $200 million and we could double the number of $300 million hits released so far this year. Wonder Woman is widely expected to start the month with an explosive debut and pulling in more than $100 million during its opening weekend is more and more likely. That said, Despicable Me 3 will probably end up being the biggest hit overall with over $300 million. Meanwhile, Cars 3 and Transformers: The Last Knight are both aiming for $200 million. Last June was not particularly strong, outside of one hit. Finding Dory earned nearly $500 million domestically, while the second best film, Central Intelligence, barely earned a quarter of that. I don’t think any film will come close to Finding Dory, but there’s a lot more depth this time around and I have high hopes 2017 will extend its lead.
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This month we’re introducing a new Bankability Index that estimates how much someone is worth to a film based on analysis of the Hollywood Creative Graph™, a network of over 130,000 people with over 6 million connections that represent all the films they have worked on together. By using an analytical technique called graph analysis, the Bankability Index measures the influence of each person in the Hollywood Creative Graph, which we translate into an estimate of the average value added per movie by everyone. Here on The Numbers, we will now publish each month the top 50 people on a per-movie basis, and subscriptions are available for our full report, which contains information on the top 250 people in the business.
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Doctor Strange was the first time that magic was really strongly introduced into the Marvel Cinematic Universe and some thought the film was a bit of a risk as a result. Instead, the film became the second biggest introductory film in the MCU, behind only Guardians of the Galaxy. Is it as good as its box office numbers would suggest? Or has the MCU become self-sustaining generating hundreds of million of dollars regardless of quality?
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Hollywood has a habit of underestimating Tyler Perry. When Diary of a Mad Black Woman opened back in 2005, it was expected to struggle to make the top 10, and yet finished top of the chart with a $21.9 million weekend. More than eleven years later, he, or perhaps more accurately, Madea, continues to defy tracking models and rack up wins at the box office, with Boo! A Madea Halloween set to top this weekend’s chart with a projected $27.6 million. That’s nearly $5 million better than the debut of Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, which Paramount has coming in at $23 million.
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September is over and we should all be glad about that. Unless the final weekend brings a surprise $100 million hit or two, 2016’s lead over 2015 will shrink over the month. There were some bright spots, most notably Sully, which will be the biggest hit of the month. On the other hand, we had more outright bombs than even midlevel hits. Sadly, October isn’t much better. There are a couple of films that could be $100 million hits, but most of the films will struggle to become midlevel hits. Both Inferno and The Girl on the Train are aiming for $100 million. One of them might get there too. If both get there, then October will be seen as a success. By comparison, last October was led by The Martian; however, because of a misalignment in the calendar, The Martian’s opening weekend actually lines up with the final weekend in September. It had great legs, so that will help 2015 early in the month, but the rest of the month was terrible last year and I think 2016 will come out ahead as a result.
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When it comes to “star power” in Hollywood, I’ve been a skeptic ever since we launched our Bankability Index, and started looking at the real influence a single actor has on the performance of a film. With some notable exceptions (Tom Cruise and Sandra Bullock chief among them these days), actors generally don’t move the box office dial much when they appear in a generic film. But this weekend’s opening of Jason Bourne shows what the combination of the right actor in the right role can do. In spite of virtually identical reviews to 2012’s The Bourne Legacy, the new film, a franchise un-re-boot if you will, starring Matt Damon in the role he made iconic, will post a very solid $60 million this weekend. To be fair, that’s a bit behind the inflation-adjusted openings of The Bourne Ultimatum and The Bourne Supremacy, but it’s far better than the $38 million earned by Legacy when it debuted.
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June was a much better month than expected due to two films, Jurassic World and Inside Out. Had those two films merely matched expectations, then 2015 would have likely fallen behind 2014. As for this coming month, there are five weekends in July and each week there is at least one film with the potential to reach $100 million. Most weeks there are two films that at least have a shot at getting to the century mark. The biggest hit of the month will likely be Minions, which has already opened in several international markets and it's ahead of Despicable Me 2 at the same point. That film made more than $300 million and nearly $1 billion worldwide, so any growth would be fantastic. There are also a number of potential $200 million films, led by Ant-man. Ant-man is the latest release in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, a franchise that has averaged $300 million domestically over eleven films and all of the past six films have reached at least $200 million. I'm not saying this one is guaranteed to do the same, but you can't dismiss that possibility. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation and Pixels have smaller chances to get to $200 million, but you have to at least entertain the possibility. Additionally, last July was a lot weaker than this July looks to be, so 2015 should win in the year-over-year comparison most weeks. Or I might have let the box office success of June cloud my judgment. We will soon find out.
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After smashing the January weekend record last weekend, American Sniper is enjoying a very solid second-weekend hold. So solid, in fact, that it will also have the third-best January weekend. If it drops less than 35% next weekend, it will share with Avatar the records for the top six January weekends, each movie having topped $42 million three times. Sniper’s expected weekend this time around is $64.365m, according to Warner Bros. Sunday morning projection.
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This Thursday is Thanksgiving, which means this is Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and a ton of shopping. It also means the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. Over the next month, we will talk about TV on DVD releases, independent releases, foreign language releases, classics, etc. but this week we start with Major Movie Releases. These are first run releases, franchise box sets, etc. In some ways, this is better than last year, as there were a wider number of big releases that would make great gifts. However, in other ways it is much weaker. I can't think of a single big franchise box set that came out this year. There are some smaller ones, like the HalloweenBox Set, but while the franchise has lasted ten installments and 30 years, how many can you really say are worth repeated viewing? Fortunately, there were plenty of great films to come out this year, starting with what is currently the biggest hit of the year.
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This weekend, there are two wide releases coming out, one of which is the obvious potential monster hit and the other being the obvious counter-programing. On paper, Edge of Tomorrow is the obvious potential monster hit. It is a Sci-fi action film with a production budget that is nearly $200 million. The Fault in Our Stars is the obvious counter-programing. It is about two teen cancer patients who fall in love, which couldn't be farther away from a popcorn flick. However, the buzz really suggests The Fault in Our Stars could win. In fact, it could break the record for biggest opening for a romantic drama. This weekend last year, The Purge won with $34.06 million, while no other film earned more than $20 million. This year, three films might top $30 million and the winner could pull in more than $40 million. I think 2014 will win this weekend in the year-over-year competition.
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It is too soon to tell how May will end, as this story will be published before the weekend estimates came out. (Maleficent had an excellent start on Friday, unlike A Million Ways to Die in the West.) Overall, it was a good month with at least three movies that are on track to hit $200 million, but there was no really big winner for the month. It was nice and balanced. Unfortunately, last May there was a monster hit, Iron Man 3, and 2014 could not compete with that, so it lost ground to 2013. June hopes to turn things around and there are some reasons to be optimistic. All four weeks there is at least one film opening that at least has a shot at $100 million. There are even two films that at least have a shot at $300 million. Transformers: Age of Extinction should win the monthly box office race while How to Train Your Dragon 2 is a long shot to win, but I wouldn't be completely surprised if it did. Additionally, 22 Jump Street, Edge of Tomorrow, The Fault in Our Stars, and Think Like a Man 2 are all contenders for the century club. Not all of them will get to that milestone, but all of them at least have a short. Last June, there were three films that reached $200 million, including Man of Steel, which nearly reached $300 million. It looks like June of 2014 will be about as strong as June of 2013, more or less. If all films reach their potential, it could win the year-over-year comparison. Unless there are some shocking bombs, it shouldn't struggle so much that 2014 loses its lead over 2013 entirely.
Oblivion was a spring release, which isn't a great time to release a film, but it is far from a terrible time either. It opened in first place at the box office, but quickly faded away after that. It is hard to get excited by its box office numbers, but it wasn't a real bomb either. It will need help on the home market to recoup its $120 million production budget. Does it deserve to be seen by more on the home market? And is the DVD and / or Blu-ray worth picking up?
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While there are a lot of new releases listed on Amazon.com, it isn't long before you run into filler. Worse still, the top two selling movies, Jack Reacher and Save Haven, are just mediocre movies. The Great Escape is coming out on Blu-ray this week, which would normally be a reason to celebrate. However, a lot of reviewers are complaining about the poor video quality. The film needed, and deserves, a full restoration, but that didn't happen. We need to look further down the list to find a Pick of the Week contender, and we find one in 30 Rock: Season Seven.
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During the holiday season of 2011, Tom Cruise starred in Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol. I thought it was arguably the best action movie of the year and it became the stars biggest hit globally and his best domestic hit in a decade (not counting a cameo in Goldmember). A year later, Jack Reacher opened with barely a fraction of the buzz. I was one of the most Bullish analysts and I was only predicting $75 million. The film did pull in $80 million domestically, which is better than expected, but nothing compared to MI:IV. Is it really that much weaker? Or did it struggle in comparison, because it wasn't part of a popular franchise.
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The overall box office was in line with expectations, more or less, which is unfortunately bad news, as expectations were low. Oblivion easily won the weekend, but the overall box office still fell 5.7% from last weekend to $110 million. Worse still, this is 19% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2013 has pulled in $2.77 billion, which is 11% lower than 2012's pace. 2013 is already $350 million behind 2012 and even with Iron Man 3 looming large, I don't see how 2013 is going to turn things around any time soon.
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It is no secret that 2013 has been a bad year at the box office so far. There's only one film debuting wide this week, Oblivion, which should benefit from the lack of competition this weekend. (Although we are already seeing plenty of hype for Iron Man 3, which could hurt this film's chance at the box office.) There are also several films opening in more than 100 theaters: Filly Brown, Home Run, and The Lords of Salem. There's a chance one of them will be a better than expected hit and reach the top ten; it's a slim chance, but a chance. Finally, The Place Beyond the Pines is expanding to an additional 1,000 theaters and should climb higher in the top ten. Last year, there were three wide releases led by Think Like a Man. That film was a bigger than expected hit, but hopefully Oblivion will have an even better start, but not everyone is positive it will.
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March is over and while it is a little too soon to tell where a few films will end their box office runs, it is clear Oz The Great and Powerful won the month. Some films beat expectations to become midlevel hits, like The Call, but it wasn't a great month at the box office, especially compared to last year. This month, there are only seven wide releases spread over four weeks. Only one of those films, Oblivion, has a shot at being anything more than a midlevel hit. None of the other six releases look like they will come close to $100 million, but none of them look like obvious bombs either. (Although I do have my worries when it comes to Scary Movie 5.) Last April was even weaker with no film earning $100 million, although Think Like a Man did come relatively close. We might actually see growth on the year-over-year comparison. We'd better, because 2013 is behind 2012's pace by a huge margin at the moment and things will get worse when May arrives.
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November was a strong month and left 2012 with a very easy path to a new all time record. There was only one major miss the entire month, Rise of the Guardians, while The Silver Linings Playbook was pulled from wide release at the last minute, so it is a little hard to judge its box office performance. On the positive side, Skyfall might top original expectations by $100 million. All this December has to do is maintain pace with last December to ensure 2012 sets the new record. I would like to say that will be easy to do, but I really don't know. Last year, there was only one $200 million hit, Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol, plus a few others that reached $100 million, so the bar isn't set too high. This year, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey is expected to at least come close to $300 million. Some think it will earn more than $400 million. However, it could also be the last film to make $100 million till February. December is normally a very good month to release a film, but the release schedule is so messed up that it makes it very hard to predict what will happen. There appears to be just ten films opening truly wide this month (I'm getting mixed signals on a few of them). That's a really light schedule for a month and a light schedule tends to help maximize the box office potential for individual films. However, eight of these films open wide within a seven-day period. That's insane. There's no way all of those films will find an audience and there's a chance that due to the competition, none of them will. Let's hope the situation isn't as bad as that, but there are some serious reasons to be concerned for most new releases coming out this month.
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