Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

Weekend predictions: Black Panther unchallenged at top of chart, The Menu looks like the best of the rest

November 18th, 2022

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever will easily win its second box office crown this weekend, helped by a lack of direct competition and the tailwinds of a $181-million opening weekend. Our model thinks $70 million will be around a par score for the Marvel movie, and no new release will come within $50 million of that. Three new films come in with a shot at second place: The Menu, She Said, and The Chosen. Of those three, our model thinks The Menu has the best shot at taking that honor. More...

Weekend predictions: Black Panther will break November record, but maybe not the $200-million barrier

November 11th, 2022

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever earned $28 million from previews on Thursday, the 15th-best preview figure in history, and notably higher than the $25.2 million earned by the original Black Panther back in 2018. That sets it on a path to break the record for the biggest weekend in November, currently held by The Hunger Games: Catching Fire with $158 million, but our model thinks topping $200 million will be a hard task. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Empire Strikes Back, Again

July 14th, 2020

For the third time in the past 40 years, The Empire Strikes Back opened in first place on the weekend box office chart. According to Deadline, the film pulled in $611,000 over the three-day weekend for a total opening of $644,000. This puts it near the very top of the pandemic re-releases, ahead of last week’s winner, Ghostbusters, looking at the three-day figure, but behind it over five. More...

Daily Box Office Tracking: Endgame Has One Last Record Debut

April 30th, 2019

Avengers: Endgame ended its international tour opening in Russia with $7.8 million, which is the highest opening day in that market. It is also 59% higher than Avengers: Infinity War’s debut last year. As impressive as this opening is, it is far from the only impressive aspect of Endgame’s Monday box office. More...

2018 Awards Season: Oscar Nominations

January 23rd, 2019

The Oscar nominations were announced yesterday starting at just after 5 am Pacific time. They do this every year for reasons no one has been able to adequately explain to me. Because it was the day after a long weekend, it took a bit of time to get all the normal work done and digest the results. And there were some interesting results to digest. No one film led the way with total nominations, as two films, The Favourite and Roma tied with 10 nominations each. More...

2018 - Awards Season: BAFTA - Nominations

January 12th, 2019

The BAFTA nominations were announced and The Favorite led the way with 12 nominations. Sometimes the BAFTAs are a really good indicator for who will do well on Oscar night. Other times their bias to British films is too much. I think this year will be an example of the latter and I don't think The Favourite is suddenly an Oscar favorite. That said, there’s still some things you can learn here. More...

2018 - Awards Season: WGA - Nominations

January 10th, 2019

The Writers Guild of America has a lot of categories, as they hand out nearly 30 awards. However, only three of them are for theatrical releases. The list of nominees include several major Awards Season players and not a lot of surprises. There are some clear patterns emerging, but also some surprising results. More...

2018 - Awards Season: PGA - Nominations

January 4th, 2019

The Producers Guild of America announced their nominations in the theatrical categories today and there are some trends building. However, there are also some questions generated after these nominations were announced. More...

2018 - Holiday Gift Guide - Part IV - Books, Music, and Anything I Missed

December 20th, 2018

We’ve already talked about First-run Releases, TV on DVD releases, and Limited Releases / Classics / Foreign-Imports. This week we look at some books, music, movies that didn’t arrive in time to talk about before, movies I just forgot to mention, or screeners that arrived late and I won’t be able to get to. More...

2018 - Awards Season: SAG - Nominations

December 12th, 2018

The Screen Actors Guild were the third group to announce their nominations for this awards season. There’s not a lot of surprises on this week’s list. A Star is Born led the way with four nominations, while The Favourite was right behind with three. More...

2018 - Awards Season: Golden Globes - Nominations

December 6th, 2018

The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. It is still very early in the year and the predictive value of the Golden Globes is a little suspect, but there are still some things to learn here. For example Vice led the way with six nominations, so its Oscar chances have gone up, but don’t expect it to lead the way when the Oscars nominations are announced. More...

2018 - Holiday Gift Guide - Part I - First-Run Releases and Franchise Box Sets

November 19th, 2018

It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This week we will tackle first run releases and franchise box sets as well. Unfortunately, 2018 has not been a good year for blockbusters for any studio not named Disney. In order to be on this list, a film has to be a major release, earn critical praise, and be on out DVD / Blu-ray and that’s a really short list this year. For example, Universal is the second best studio this year in terms of total domestic box office, but they’ve only released one film that has earned $100 million and overwhelmingly positive reviews. That film, Halloween doesn’t come out on DVD / Blu-ray till January. Most of the rest of the big six are lucky to have more than one entry on this week’s list. More...

Home Market Releases for May 22nd, 2018

May 23rd, 2018

Black Panther came out on DVD, Blu-ray Combo Pack, or 4K Ultra HD Combo Pack last weekend and it is still scaring away a lot of the competition. That’s not to say there are no new releases that are worth picking up. In fact, A Fantastic Woman, I Kill Giants, and Early Man are all contenders for Pick of the Week. In the end, that title went to Early Man on Blu-ray. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Infinity War Helps 2018 Take on Guardians

May 15th, 2018

The weekend was better than expected, for the most part. All of the holdovers, including the number one film, Avengers: Infinity War, held on better than we predicted, while one of the two new releases also opened faster. Life of the Party was the only film in the top five that didn’t beat expectations. Overall, the box office still slipped 19% from last week, down to $137 million. However, this is 1.2% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2018 maintains a strong 5.2% / $210 million lead over 2017 at $4.24 billion to $4.03 billion. More...

Home Market Releases for May 15th, 2018

May 14th, 2018

Black Panther comes out on DVD, Blu-ray Combo Pack, or 4K Ultra HD Combo Pack this week and it has scared away all of the competition. It’s so bad, that even though Black Panther was Pick of the Week last week and I hate giving a film Pick of the Week twice, it is still clearly the best film on this week’s list. The only real competition is Early Man, which is only coming out on Video on Demand this week, but I got to the review early. More...

Weekend Predictions: Infinity War Looks to Complete the Threepeat

May 10th, 2018

Avengers: Infinity War will have no trouble earning first place for the third time at the box office chart. It’s only competition is the sophomore stint of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2, which earned $65 million this weekend last year. Hopefully Infinity War will come within $10 million of that. As for the new releases, Life of the Party should earn more than all three new releases earned last weekend, while Breaking In is on track for an opening in the low to mid teens. If all three films can meet these expectations, then 2018 will have a shot at winning in the year-over-year comparison. More...

Home Market Releases for May 8th, 2018

May 8th, 2018

It is a terrible week on the home market. Of the new releases getting full mentions, only two of them would be included in an average week, while most of the rest would be relegated to Secondary Blu-ray releases. Why is it so bad this week? Because Black Panther is coming out on Video on Demand and it is scaring away all of the competition. Fortunately, it is the Pick of the Week, but I would wait for the DVD, Blu-ray Combo Pack, or 4K Ultra HD Combo Pack to come out next week to buy it. The next best option is Gun Crazy on Blu-ray. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Infinity Tops Charts, can’t Quite Match Guardians Debut

May 8th, 2018

It was a relatively good weekend at the box office with every film in the top five matching or beating expectations. This includes Avengers: Infinity War, which had the second best second weekend of all time, earning $114.77 million. Overall, the box office fell 46% from last weekend, but $169 million is still a good total. It is 13% lower than the same weekend last year, but it had to go up against Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 opening weekend, so being this close is actually a positive result. Year-to-date, 2018 has pulled in $4.05 billion, which is 5.6% or $220 million higher than last year’s pace. More...

Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: Black Panther

May 7th, 2018

Black Panther was expected to be a hit; after all, it’s part of the MCU. However, almost no one was expecting it to become the biggest hit in the MCU. It is also considered the best film in the MCU by a lot of people. Am I one of them? If not, where does it fit? More...

Friday Estimates: Infinity War Just a Day Away from $400 million

May 5th, 2018

Infinity War dominated the Friday box office chart with $31.43 million for an 8-day total of $369.76 million. The only film with a faster pace than Infinity War is The Force Awakens. Granted, this is down just over 70% from the film’s opening Friday, but it is 9% ahead of Black Panther’s second Friday. If this film has the same internal multiplier, then it will pull in $122 million over the full weekend. That’s a little too bullish for my tastes, but $120 million is still fantastic for a sophomore stint. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Infinity War Opened as Close to Infinity as Any Film

April 30th, 2018

Infinity War was expected to dominate the box office over the weekend. However, not a lot of people thought it would break the all-time record, but it did. Not only did it break the record, it smashed it, topping The Force Awakens by nearly $10 million at $257.70 million. The MCU now has six of the top ten openings of all-time. Remember, when Disney bought Marvel for $4 billion, a lot of people thought they overpaid. Disney’s share of just the domestic box office numbers is close to $4 billion at this point. The overall box office rose 150% from last weekend to $312 million. This is within a rounding error of the record and we might get there as smaller studios report their numbers later in the week. This is 212% higher than the same weekend last year; granted, this is because summer started a week early this year. Year-to-date, 2018 has retaken the lead by $140 million or 4.0% at $3.78 billion to $3.64 billion. However, and this is important, this is a misleading number, because summer started a week early this year. I would wait till Deadpool 2 comes out to judge the year-to-date numbers. It will take that long for Infinity War coming out a week early to fully balance out. You will probably make solid judgments before then, but I think it is wise to be a little cautious. More...

Friday Estimates: Infinity Hits Century Mark on Opening Day

April 28th, 2018

Avengers: Infinity War easily topped the chart on Friday, earning $105.97 million. It is only the third film to crack $100 million in a single day, and is behind only The Force Awakens on the that chart. The film is on pace for $237 million during its opening weekend, which is the second-best weekend of all time, again, behind only The Force Awakens. As for its legs, the film’s reviews are 84% positive, while it earned an A from CinemaScore, which bodes well for its word-of-mouth and long term success. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Avengers go to Infinity?

April 26th, 2018

Infinity War. Do I need to say more? Infinity War is easily the most anticipated movie of the year, and some argue the most anticipated film in the past few years. There’s even talk that it will have the best three-day opening of all time. This weekend last year, The Fate of the Furious earned its third first place result with just under $20 million. Infinity War could make twice that during its midnight previews. It will make more than the entire box office made last year. More...

International Box Office: Rampage Retains Lead on International Chart

April 25th, 2018

Rampage remained in first place on the international chart with $58.0 million on 33,140 screens in 61 markets, for totals of $217.6 million internationally and $283.3 million worldwide. The studio’s share of this is very likely above the film’s $120 million production budget, so it has an excellent shot at breaking even early in its home market run. The film’s biggest market of the weekend was China, where it earned $27.07 million on 16,900 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $106.57 million. The film has yet to open in France, Germany, and Japan and by the time it’s done, it will be very close to breaking even. More...

International Box Office: Rampage Runs Roughshod over Competition topping Century Mark

April 18th, 2018

Rampage dominated the international box office earning more than the rest of the top ten combined with $115.7 million on 40,200 screens in 61 markets for a worldwide opening weekend of $151.5 million. The film’s biggest opening was in China, where it managed $54.88 million on 21,500 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $55.56 million. This is a good result, compared to recent results. It’s better than Tomb Raider managed, but not as good as Ready Player One, for example. The U.K. and South Korea were in a close race for second place with the former earning $5.8 million on 883 screens and the latter earning $4.99 million on 909 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $5.60 million. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Rampage Climbs Ahead of A Quiet Place with $35.75 million

April 16th, 2018

Rampage was widely expected to earn first place over the weekend, and it did. However, A Quiet Place gave it a real run for its money and after Friday’s estimates, it looked like the horror film would repeat on top. Meanwhile, Truth or Dare was also a pleasant surprise at the box office earning close to $19 million on a $3.5 million production budget. Overall, the box office fell 9.8% from last weekend to $147 million. This is also 13% lower than the same weekend last year. That said, The Fate of the Furious opened this weekend last year and earned almost $100 million, so it could have been worse. Year-to-date, 2018 is still behind behind 2017 by $70 million or 2.0% or $3.27 billion to $3.33 billion. More...

International Box Office: Ready Remains First, Nears $400 million Worldwide

April 10th, 2018

Ready Player One remained in first place on the international chart with $83.8 million on 33,787 screens in 65 markets for totals of $297.1 million internationally and $393.6 million worldwide. The film’s best new market was Germany, where it opened in first place with $2.88 million on 866 screens. Its best market overall was China with $43.45 million in 17,738 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $162.26 million. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Quiet Place Helps the Box Office Make Some Noise

April 9th, 2018

A Quiet Place not only topped predictions, it nearly doubled them earning $50.20 million during its opening weekend. The rest of the new releases also beat expectations, albeit by much smaller margins. Blockers nearly matched its production budget, while Chappaquiddick and The Miracle Season didn’t embarrass themselves. Add in some strong holds and the total box office was a surprisingly robust $162 million. This is 19% higher than last weekend and 36% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2018 is still behind 2017 by $60 million or 1.8% at $3.07 billion to $3.12 billion. This is half as much as the gap was this time last week, which is great news going forward. More...

Weekend Estimates: A Quiet Place Opens in the Black with $50 million

April 8th, 2018

If it weren’t for Black Panther, A Quiet Place would be the biggest surprise hit of the year so far. The film earned $50 million during its opening weekend, on a budget of just $17 million. Its initial ad buy was probably less than $25 million, meaning this film earned more in its opening weekend that its combined budget. However, I assume Paramount Pictures put in at least another $10 million ad buy on Saturday after Friday’s estimates showed up. As for the film’s future, its reviews are close to Award-worthy and it earned a B plus from CinemaScore, which is impressive for a horror film. Additionally, the film saw its score rise on Saturday when compared to Friday, which is not common for a new release. Previews plus the opening day rush usually result in small declines for films aimed at this target audience. It is still a horror film and next week there is big competition and direct competition, so its legs likely won’t be great, but its nearly guaranteed a profit by this time next week. More...

Friday Estimates: A Quiet Place has Deafening Opening with $19 million

April 7th, 2018

There are people at Paramount Pictures walking around with confused looks on their faces. They don’t know what to do, because it has been so long since they have had an unqualified box office hit like this. A Quiet Place earned $19 million on Friday, which is well above expectations and more than it cost to make. Its reviews are 97% positive, while it earned a B plus from CinemaScore, which is amazing for a horror film. Granted, horror films still tend to be front-loaded, but an opening weekend of close to $50 million is possible. Being a little more conservative is probably a good idea, so let’s go with $47 million. We would have to go back to 2016's Arrival to find the last time Paramount had a film that was an unqualified box office hit. That film likely broke even early in its home market run. A Quiet Place will likely break even just on its domestic theatrical numbers. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will April Have a Quiet Start?

April 5th, 2018

There are only two wide releases this week, A Quiet Place and Blockers, both of which are expected to be midlevel hits. There are also two films opening semi-wide, Chappaquiddick and The Miracle Season, neither of which are expected to open in the top five. This weekend last year, The Boss Baby led the way with $26.36 million during its second weekend of release. A Quiet Place could top that, but even if it does, last year’s depth will probably keep 2017 behind 2018 in the year-over-year comparison. More...

International Box Office: Ready Starts Out Number One Internationally with $127.5 million

April 4th, 2018

Ready Player One opened in first place on the international chart with $127.5 million on 35,600 screens in 62 markets. Its biggest single market was China with $61.61 million on 18,200 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $62.06 million. This is Warner Bros.’ biggest opening ever in this market. The film’s second biggest international market of the weekend was South Korea, where it earned second place with $6.35 million on 1,079 screens for a total opening of $8.08 million. The film also had to settle for second place behind Peter Rabbit in the U.K. with $7.3 million on 1,251 screens. The film did open in first place in several other major markets, including France ($6.15 million on 719 screens) and Russia ($5.74 million on 1,461). More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Spielberg’s Decade Best Can’t Save Overall Box Office

April 3rd, 2018

Ready Player One not only opened in first place over the weekend, but its three-day total of $41.77 million was Steven Spielberg’s best opening weekend as a director in almost exactly a decade. Acrimony was a solid second place finisher with $17.17 million. God’s Not Dead: A Light in Darkness missed the top ten. Overall, the box office rose 4.9% from last weekend hitting $136 million, but this was still 20% lower than the same weekend last year. 2018 is now 4.9% or $150 million behind 2017’s pace at $2.84 billion to $2.99 billion. More...

Weekend Estimates: Ready Player One Solid On Debut

April 1st, 2018

The gulf between blockbusters and also-rans could hardly be starker these days. Since the release of Black Panther to a whopping $202 million on February 16, three movies that could have caught the general public’s imagination have arrived on the scene, and earned somewhere between a fifth and a seventh of that on opening weekend. Ready Player One is the most successful among them, with an opening of $41.2 million predicted by Warner Bros. as of this morning. That compares favorably to the openings of A Wrinkle in Time (which started out with $33.1 million), and Pacific Rim: Uprising ($28.1 million), and is, in fact, the best weekend in 2018 for a movie not called Black Panther, but it barely starts to chip away at considerable marketing costs, let alone a reported $150 million production budget. More...

Friday Estimates: Player One is Ready and Able with $15.2 million Friday

March 31st, 2018

Ready Player One earned first place on Friday with $15.2 million, for a two-day total of $27.2 million. Continuing the comparison I’ve been doing with G.I. Joe: Retaliation, this news is mixed. Ready Player One had a much better preview night, which we can attribute to previews being relatively new when Retaliation came out. The two films’ 24-hour Thursday numbers were nearly the same, and now Ready Player One has slipped just behind Retaliation’s pace. Ready Player One does have very good reviews, but the two films both earned A-minuses from CinemaScore, so they should have similar legs. I’m still going to give the edge to Ready Player One at $41 million / $52 million, but it is close. More...

Weekend Predictions: Is Player One Ready to Dominate the Box Office? (With Preview Numbers)

March 29th, 2018

March comes to a close with three wide releases. Of these, only Ready Player One is expected to be even a midlevel hit. In fact, it will likely earn more over its four-day weekend than the other two films earn in total. Acrimony should open in the mid to low teens, while God’s Not Dead: A Light in Darkness will barely make the top ten. This weekend last year, The Boss Baby opened with just over $50 million. Maybe Ready Player One will make that much over four days. Even if it does, 2017’s impressive depth means there’s almost no chance 2018 will win in the year-over-year comparison. More...

International Box Office: Uprising Starts Out on Up with $122.4 million

March 28th, 2018

Pacific Rim: Uprising easily earned first place on the international chart with $122.4 million in 61 markets during its opening weekend. The film earned first place in China with $63.80 million over the weekend for a total opening of $65.19 million including previews. There were two markets who could claim second place: Russia and South Korea. In Russia, the film earned $6.76 million on 1,538 screens. Meanwhile in South Korea, it opened with $5.27 million on 1,143 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $6.80 million. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Uprising Wins, but Falls Compared to Original

March 27th, 2018

Pacific Rim: Uprising opened in first place over the weekend. In fact, it opened better than expected with $28.12 million. Unfortunately, that’s nowhere near enough compared to its production budget, so it will need international numbers to thrive. Black Panther was finally removed from top spot, but it also held on better than expected with $17.10 million. As for the rest of the new releases, they ranged from serious disappointments like Sherlock Gnomes and Paul, Apostle of Christ, to complete bombs like Midnight Sun and Unsane. The overall box office slipped just 2.0% from last week earning $129 million. However, this is 36% lower than the same weekend last year. 2018’s lead has completely evaporated and it is now $60 million or $2.1% behind 2017’s pace at $2.64 billion to $2.69 billion. I don’t see that improving this coming weekend. More...

Weekend Estimates: Pacific Rim Leads Weak Field of Openers

March 25th, 2018

Black Panther’s run at the top of the domestic chart will finally come to an end this weekend, with Pacific Rim: Uprising taking over as the most popular film in the US and Canada. The switch over is mostly due to Panther beginning to run out of steam, rather than Uprising showing any particular strength though. Universal’s sci-fi action movie will pick up $28.005 million over its opening weekend in North America, about in line with expectations, but disappointing for a film that cost $150 million to make. Overseas markets, particularly in Asia, are where the box office action is at for this one. More...

Friday Estimates: Pacific Rim Rises to Meet Expectations

March 24th, 2018

As expected, Pacific Rim: Uprising earned first place on Friday. In fact, its opening day box office of $10.36 million is actually a little better than expected and it is on pace for a $26 million opening weekend. Granted, this is a terrible opening compared to the film’s production budget, which is reportedly in the $155 million to $175 million range. Neither its reviews, nor its B-rating from CinemaScore will help its legs, but this film was never made to win over domestic audiences. It was made to shine in Asia, specifically China. It is too soon to tell for sure if that’s a viable strategy, or if Universal is going to have to suck up massive losses. Based on Friday numbers, the studio is predicting a $65 million opening weekend China alone and a $120.5 million international debut. That’s obviously better than here, but the film will need at least $400 million internationally to break even any time soon. More...

Weekend Predictions: Kaiju vs. Panther

March 22nd, 2018

Black Panther will finally give up its hold on first place, that is unless something goes horribly wrong for Pacific Rim: Uprising. There are four other wide or semi-wide releases hitting theaters this weekend, which is at least two too many. Sherlock Gnomes and Paul, Apostle of Christ are the only two that have a legitimate shot at the top five. Meanwhile, Midnight Sun and Unsane are just hoping to not miss the top ten. This weekend last year, there were three wide releases that earned a combined $60 million. This is more than the five wide releases this year will earn. Also, Beauty and the Beast remained in second place with $90 million. 2018 has already lost its lead over 2017 and this weekend it is going to get crushed in the year-over-year comparison. More...

International Box Office: Tomb Raider Steals Top Spot with $87.2 million

March 21st, 2018

Tomb Raider roared into first place on the international chart earning $87.2 million on 33,290 screens in 65 markets for an early total of $105.2 million. The film’s biggest single market was China, where it opened in first place with $40.79 million on 15,640 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $41.26 million. The film’s second best opening was in the U.K. at $4.29 million in 585 theaters. The only other market where the film opened with more than $4 million was Russia with $4.11 million on 1,457 screens. The film debuted in first place in all three markets and is in a good position to break even early in its home market run. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up

March 20th, 2018

As predicted, Black Panther remained in first place on the weekend chart. Tomb Raider had an okay opening in second place, while I Can Only Imagine was the biggest positive surprise of the weekend. Love, Simon had a solid opening, especially compared to its production budget. The less said about 7 Days in Entebbe, the better. Overall, the weekend box office was down 4.8% from last weekend to just $132 million. This is 49% lower than this weekend last year. A 49% decline usually only happens when there is a misalignment in holidays, but in this case it’s due to Beauty and the Beast’s debut. 2018 is still ahead of 2017, albeit by a fraction of last week’s lead at just $66 million or 2.8%. In fact, with a margin of just $2.46 billion to $2.39 billion, it is very likely 2018 will lose its lead before the next weekend begins. More...

Weekend Estimates: Black Panther Powers Past Tomb Raider

March 18th, 2018

A spirited opening by Tomb Raider won’t be quite enough to knock Black Panther off its perch at the top of the domestic box office chart this weekend. The final numbers will be close: Raider is predicted to earn $23.52 million by Warner Bros., while Disney has Panther coming in with $27.024 million. If the numbers hold (and it would be a huge surprise if they don’t), Black Panther will become the first film since Avatar to spend its first five weekends at the top of the chart. More...

Friday Estimates: Raider Opens in First Place, For Now

March 17th, 2018

As expected, Tomb Raider opened in first place with $9.06 million on Friday. However, this won’t be enough to stay ahead of Black Panther for long. Its reviews are nearly 50% positive, while it earned just a B from CinemaScore. A $23 million to $24 million opening isn’t a bad start for this time of year, but it is far from impressive for a film that reportedly cost between $90 million and $106 million. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Raider Capture Top Spot?

March 15th, 2018

Another week and another film trying to dethrone Black Panther. This week, it’s Tomb Raider’s chance to finally remove Black Panther from first place on the weekend chart. I don’t like its chances. The only other truly wide release of the week is Love, Simon, which should have a solid, but not spectacular opening. There are two other films with a shot at earning a spot in the top ten: I Can Only Imagine and 7 Days in Entebbe. This weekend last year, Beauty and the Beast opened with nearly $175 million. That’s more than the entire box office is going to earn this weekend. 2018 is going to get crushed. More...

International Box Office: Black Panther Final Earns Top Spot With $100.0 million

March 14th, 2018

For the first time, Black Panther earned first place on the international chart, adding $100.0 million in 57 markets to its totals, which now sit at $516,600,000 internationally and $1.078 billion worldwide. It became just the 33rd film to reach $1 billion worldwide and by Tuesday was in the top 20 of all time. Additionally, it is now in fifth place in the MCU and will be in a close fight for third place by the end of the weekend. I’m more bullish that I was last weekend, because the film was a hit in China earning $65.07 million. This is about on par with Thor: Ragnarok and Spider-Man: Homecoming, meaning the film is on pace to hit $1.3 billion worldwide More...

Theater Averages: Death Has Lively Opening with $46,201 Average

March 14th, 2018

The Death of Stalin earned first place on the theater average chart with an average of $46,201 in four theaters. Claire’s Camera was well back with $11,489 in its lone theater. Black Panther remained in the $10,000 club for the fourth weekend in a row with $10,354. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Black Panther and Wrinkle in Time have Record-Breaking Weekend

March 13th, 2018

For the first time ever, the top two films at the weekend box office were both directed by African-American directors. That’s amazing and should be the big story. Unfortunately for A Wrinkle in Time, the big story is Black Panther’s continued box office dominance, as that film earned first place over Wrinkle with $40.82 million to $33.12 million. Disney should be happy with both results. The only other new release that didn’t bomb was The Strangers: Prey at Night, which earned third place with $10.40 million, which is excellent for a low-budget horror movie. The less said about The Hurricane Heist and Gringo, the better. Overall, the box office fell 8.3% from last weekend to $138 million. Compared to this weekend last year, the box office fell 16%. Year-to-date, 2018 has earned $2.27 billion, which is still 8.3% or $170 million ahead of 2017’s pace. That lead could be cut in half by this time next week. More...

Weekend Estimates: Black Panther Bests Wrinkle in Time, in Disney vs. Disney Battle

March 11th, 2018

A Wrinkle in Time got out the gate a little more slowly than hoped for this weekend, and Disney is projecting an opening weekend of $33.3 million, as of Sunday morning. That’s actually in line with our prediction on Thursday of just under $35 million, but well below what pre-release interest in the film would have made seem possible. That relatively subdued debut left the door open for Black Panther, which will pick up another $41.1 million this weekend to top the chart, and continues breaking records. More...

Friday Estimates: Wrinkle Tops Panther for a Limited Time

March 10th, 2018

A Wrinkle in Time earned first place on Friday with $10.21 million, which was enough for first place over Black Panther by a small margin. Unfortunately, this lead likely won’t last long, as the film’s reviews are only 42% positive and it only managed a B from CinemaScore. This is the best scores among the new releases this weekend, but not good for a family film and will hurt its legs. Look for a $33 million opening weekend. More...

Weekend Predictions: Is It Time for Panther to Relinquish Top Spot?

March 8th, 2018

There are four wide releases coming out this week, but only one of them, A Wrinkle in Time, has a shot at dethroning Black Panther. Only one other, The Strangers: Prey at Night, has a shot at the top five. The other two, Gringo and The Hurricane Heist, are just hoping to not embarrass themselves. This weekend last year, the top two movies earned nearly $100 million. This year, the top five likely won’t earn that much. 2018 will lose the year-over-year comparison, but hopefully it will be close. More...

International Box Office: Red Sea Takes a Victory Lap on Top of the Chart

March 7th, 2018

Operation Red Sea remained in first place with $62 million in seven markets for an international total of $472 million. Of this, the film earned $61.90 million in its native China for a two-week total of $471.44 million there. More...

Theater Averages: Black Panther Can’t be Stopped from Taking Top Spot

March 6th, 2018

Black Panther was again the top film on the theater average chart earning $16,236. The only other film in the $10,000 club was Death House with $10,295 in its lone theater. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Black Panther Hits Half a Billion Dollars

March 6th, 2018

Black Panther keeps beating expectations to the point where it is my fault for not being overly optimistic. This past weekend, it earned $66.31 million, becoming the third fastest film to reach $500 million. The two new releases weren’t bad either. Red Sparrow earned second place while Death Wish wasn’t that far behind in third. Overall, the box office still fell 24% from last weekend, earning $147 million. It was also down from this week last year last year by a similar 22% margin. Year-to-date, 2018’s lead shrunk by almost exactly $10 million, but we still have a $220 million / 12% lead over 2017 at $2.09 billion to $1.87 billion. That lead will shrink dramatically over the next few weeks. More...

Weekend Estimates: Black Panther Tops $500 Million in Third Weekend

March 4th, 2018

Black Panther will add another $65.7 million this weekend, according to Disney’s Sunday morning estimate. That’ll be the 3rd-best 3rd weekend in history, behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Avatar. It also will make Panther the 3rd-fastest movie to $500 million at the domestic box office, behind Force Awakens and The Last Jedi. It continues to track extremely closely to Jurassic World, which finished its domestic run with $652 million. More...

Friday Estimates: Black Panther Adds $16.30 million

March 3rd, 2018

Black Panther matched predictions with $16.30 million on Friday. In fact, this is a little bit better than expected, so it should earn a little more than $60 million over the weekend. It now has a small shot of earning $500 million by the end of the weekend. It will likely have to wait to Monday to get there, on the other hand. More...

Weekend Predictions: New Releases Battle for Season Place as Black Panther Completes Threepeat

March 1st, 2018

March will begin the same way February ended, with Black Panther on top of the box office. The two new releases, Red Sparrow and Death Wish, might not make as much over the full weekend as Black Panther will earn on Friday. This weekend last year, Logan opened with $88.41 million, while Get Out held on better than expected with $28.24 million. There’s little chance 2018 will be able to beat that at the top, so 2018’s winning streak might come to an end. More...

International Box Office: Operation Red Sea Dives into a Sea of Green with $107 million

February 28th, 2018

Operation Red Sea climbed into first place with $107 million in five markets for an international total of $336 million. Of this, the film earned $107.02 million in its native China for a two-week total of $335.81 million there. Amazingly, this was 46% higher than its opening weekend. More...

Theater Averages: New Releases Can’t Take Down Black Panther

February 27th, 2018

Black Panther was the only film in the $10,000 club this past weekend earning an average of $27,776 in just over 4,000 theaters. If the film earned this during its opening weekend, it would have been the best theater average for any film that has opened in 2018. Mary and the Witch’s Flower had a, well, complicated weekend. It was officially only playing in three theaters, but on Saturday, it had special screenings in over 400 theaters, earning nearly $200,000 in the process. In the three theaters where it had regular showings, it had a theater average of about $2,500. That’s good for a film that has been in theaters for six weeks. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Another Week, Another Set of Records for Black Panther

February 26th, 2018

Almost everyone expected Black Panther to earn first place over the weekend. I doubt there were many people who expected this. The film fell just 45% earning $111.66 million for a ten-day total of $403.61 million, helping the film make appearances on a number of record charts, including; second biggest second weekend of release, second fastest to $400 million, etc. The new releases matched expectations, more or less, with Game Night earning second place and coming within a rounding error of our prediction. Overall, the box office earned $192 million. This is 33% lower than last weekend; however, this is a good hold for a post-holiday weekend. Compared to last year, the box office was up by 55% and this is a much more important number. Year-to-date, 2018 has a 14% / $230 million lead over 2017, at $1.88 billion to $1.65 billion. This is great news at this point of the year, but we really need to stretch that lead to over $300 million in the next two plus weeks, before we are dealing with Beauty and the Beast, if we can’t, then this lead could evaporate before the end of March. More...

Weekend Estimates: Black Panther’s $108-Million Weekend Sets Up $650-Million Domestic Run

February 25th, 2018

The party is just getting started for Black Panther. With Disney’s official weekend estimate in, it looks like the latest from the Marvel Universe is already just one day away from being the franchise’s highest-grossing movie for a film built around a single character, and it is on course to top The Avengers as the biggest Marvel movie of them all. That’s thanks to a projected $108 million weekend that sets some records of its own. More...

Friday Estimates: Black Panther on Pace for $100-Million Weekend

February 24th, 2018

As expected, Black Panther dominated on Friday at the box office. However, it was a little better than we were predicting, earning $28.86 million. Usually when outstanding reviews have to go up against the Fanboy effect, the Fanboy effect wins, but not this time. Look for $101 million during its second weekend of release, making it just the fourth film to earn $100 million during its second weekend. On a related note, the film has already topped the lifetime totals of several MCU installments, including Thor: Ragnarok. More...

Weekend Predictions: Are the New Releases Brave Enough to Take On Black Panther?

February 22nd, 2018

Three wide releases are attempting to take on Black Panther at the box office; none will be successful. Game Night is the widest release of the week and its reviews are amazing. Annihilation is barely opening in 2,000 theaters, but its reviews are even better. Then there’s Every Day, which is just hoping to not get lost in the crowd. All three new releases combined won’t earn half as much as Black Panther will earn this weekend, so the real competition for the returning box office champ is this weekend last year. Get Out debuted with $33.38 million, while the total box office was $123.61 million. Black Panther won’t get to $123.61 million, but it should do well enough to keep 2018 significantly ahead of 2017. More...

International Box Office: Monster Hunts Down Black Panther With $190 million Opening Weekend

February 22nd, 2018

Monster Hunt 2 earned first place on the international chart with $190 million. Of that, $188.47 million was earned in its native China. The only other market where the film earned more than $1 million was Malaysia, where it earned $1.2 million. The original Monster Hunt didn’t start nearly as fast, but it also had surprisingly long legs for a Chinese film. I suspect Sequelitis will reduce this film’s legs, but that won’t stop it from improving on the first film’s nearly $400 million worldwide run. More...

Theater Averages: Another Gold for Black Panther

February 21st, 2018

Black Panther not only earned the best theater average of the weekend, it earned the best theater average of the year so far with an average of $50,250. This tops the previous record of $47,167 set by The Post on the first weekend of the year. The previous best average for a film that opened in 2018 was $13,783, set by Padmaavat. The only other film in the $10,000 club this past weekend was The Party, which earned an average of $12,465 in three theaters. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Black Panther Re-Writes the Record Book

February 20th, 2018

Black Panther destroyed expectations over the Presidents Day long weekend earning $202.00 million / $242.16 million over the 3-day / 4-day weekend. The list of records this film broke seems endless, but we will get to that in a bit. Unfortunately, the two other new releases, Early Man and Samson, both bombed. On a more positive note, the total box office rose 103% from last weekend reaching $285 million. This is the third-biggest weekend of all-time, and the biggest non-December weekend. This is also 92% higher than the same weekend last year. Even if we use Presidents Day of last year, 2018 was still 51% higher. More importantly, 2018 completely erased the small deficit it had and is now ahead of 2017 by $120 million or 8% at $1.62 billion to $1.50 billion. More impressively, 2018 is even ahead of 2017 in terms of ticket sales at 178 million to 172 million. More...

Weekend Estimates: Black Panther Powers to $218 Million Long Weekend

February 18th, 2018

Black Panther is riding a waving of positive feedback all the way to record territory this weekend, with Disney projecting a $192 million three-day, and $218 million four-day weekend, as of Sunday morning. That gives the film three outright records right off the bat: biggest weekend in February, biggest three-day Presidents Day weekend, and biggest four-day Presidents Day weekend. In each case, the film is topping the jaw-dropping-at-the-time opening of Deadpool in 2016. More...

Friday Estimates: Black Panther Crushes Expectations, Headed over $200 million for Weekend

February 17th, 2018

As expected, Black Panther crushed the competition on Friday. However, it beat all but the most enthusiastic predictions to earn $75.81 million for the day. Add in 97% positive reviews on Rotten Tomatoes and an A+ from CinemaScore, and the film should have good legs over the weekend. On the negative side, it is a monster hit thanks in part to the deafening hype, so that’s going to result in shorter legs. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: Monster Hits and Animated Flicks

February 16th, 2018

It’s a strange week for limited releases with a wide variety of films to check out. There’s an Oscar nominationed Russian film, Loveless. As well as two Chinese films that are going to be monster hits back home, Detective Chinatown 2 and Monster Hunt 2. And finally, two animated films, Mind Game and Tehran Taboo. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Deadpool is no Match for Black Panther and Wakandan Might

February 16th, 2018

I tried to remain cautious in the face of the overwhelming hype surrounding the release of Black Panther. This could be a mistake. It started its domestic box office run with $25.2 million in previews on Thursday, which crushed the $12.7 million Deadpool earned during the beginning of its record-breaking debut weekend. Not only is this the best previews for a Presidents Day debut, it is the best pre-summer preview, topping The Hunger Games’s $19.7 million. It is also the second best for the MCU, just ahead of Civil War’s $25 million mark, and just behind Age of Ultron’s result of $27.6 million. The film’s 97% positive reviews suggest it will have long legs; however, as we’ve seen time and time again, even Award-worthy reviews are almost never a match for an extreme Fanboy Effect. That said, this result is way above the $20 million I was expecting and a $200 million four-day debut is now more likely than not. More...

Weekend Predictions: Black Panther is About to Bring In a Lot of Green

February 15th, 2018

It’s Presidents Day long weekend and there are two-and-a-half films trying to take advantage of the holiday with wide releases. However, the only film opening this weekend that people are actually talking about is Black Panther. This film is earning more buzz than any film opening until Infinity War and is widely expected to break records. Early Man’s reviews have been overwhelmingly positive, but it is just hoping to reach the top five. Finally, there’s Samson, which is only opening semi-wide. This weekend last year was the weekend after Presidents Day long weekend, so it is not a fair comparison and 2018 will crush 2017. Compared to Presidents Day of last year, 2018 will still crush the competition. More...

2018 Preview: February

February 1st, 2018

2018 got off to a good start and January more or less held its ground when compared to 2017. There were some misses, but surprise holdovers made up the difference. Looking forward, February will be dominated by Black Panther. In fact, it will very likely make more during its opening weekend than the second place film, Fifty Shades Freed, will likely make in total. Black Panther likely won’t break records, but it could come close, while Fifty Shade Freed and Peter Rabbit both have a 50/50 shot at $100 million. Last February, The Lego Batman Movie both earned $175 million, while Fifty Shades Darker earned over $100 million. Black Panther will easily beat any film from last February; in fact, it could earn more than the top two films earned combined. As long as the rest of the box office isn’t a complete disaster, February should help 2018 earn a significant edge over 2017 in the year-over-year comparisons. More...

Black Panther Trailer

October 16th, 2017

Super-hero action movie starring Chadwick Boseman opens February 16 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Black Panther Trailer

June 13th, 2017

Super hero action movie starring Chadwick Boseman opens February 16, 2018 ... Full Movie Details. More...